War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Pretoria is dead: TPLF installs Debretsion, Eritrea coordinates multi-front pressure, and Addis Ababa restructures Tigray administratively.
The Sudan Civil War broke out in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group.
The two had jointly overthrown Sudan's civilian government in 2021, then fell out over how to merge their forces into a single military. Over 12 million people have been displaced, making it the world's largest displacement crisis. Outside powers fuel both sides: Egypt arms the SAF, the UAE arms the RSF.
The same two governments lead every ceasefire push.
Trajectory
The April 2026 Berlin Conference marked the most explicit multilateral call yet for external backers to halt support to both sides, but stopped short of naming those backers or imposing any enforcement mechanism, leaving arms pipelines intact three years into the war.
The Quad ceasefire framework remains unaccepted by both warring parties, and its structural flaw is unchanged: Egypt and the UAE are simultaneously the conflict's primary external arms enablers and its designated co-architects of any peace process.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Analysis
The Quad ceasefire framework is structurally self-defeating: Egypt and the UAE are simultaneously the conflict's primary external arms enablers and its designated co-architects of the peace process.
The Ethiopia-Sudan rupture is the most consequential new escalation vector in the current period: if Ethiopia shifts from neutral neighbor to implicated party.
Berlin Conference failure to name external backers or impose enforcement confirms that multilateral diplomatic architecture has no current mechanism to disrupt the arms pipelines sustaining both sides.
Historical Context
The Janjaweed, Arab militias backed by President Omar al-Bashir's government, carried out a genocidal campaign in Darfur that killed over 300,000 people and displaced millions, laying the groundwork for the RSF's later formation.
Bashir formally institutionalized the Janjaweed as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ("Hemedti"), creating a parallel military that would grow wealthy through control of Sudan's gold mines.
A popular uprising toppled Bashir after 30 years in power, and a fragile power-sharing transitional government was established between civilian leaders and the military, including both SAF General al-Burhan and Hemedti.
SAF General al-Burhan led a military coup in October, dissolving the transitional government and leaving the SAF and RSF jointly in control, while negotiations over merging the RSF into the national army stalled and tensions mounted.
Disputes over the terms and timeline of RSF integration into the SAF erupted into open warfare in April, with fighting breaking out simultaneously in Khartoum and Darfur and rapidly spreading across the country.
The RSF seized large swaths of Khartoum and established dominance over Darfur, controlling roughly 25% of Sudanese territory while committing mass atrocities against civilians, particularly targeting non-Arab communities in Darfur.
The UN declared Sudan home to the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 10 million people internally displaced and famine conditions emerging across multiple states as both sides blockaded humanitarian aid.
The SAF launched a major offensive and recaptured Khartoum in March, marking the most significant territorial shift of the war, though the RSF retained control of Darfur and fighting continued nationwide.
Continue With
All conflictsWar / Africa
Pretoria is dead: TPLF installs Debretsion, Eritrea coordinates multi-front pressure, and Addis Ababa restructures Tigray administratively.
War / Africa
Somalia's federal order fractures as Puntland and Jubaland withdraw recognition while Al-Shabaab exploits the political deadlock.
Proxy Network
UAE finances RSF parallel governance structures, procurement networks, and territorial administration across western Sudan.
Libya's LNA under Haftar facilitates RSF weapons and supply transit through eastern Libyan territory.
UAE-backed Desert Wolves brigade, incorporating Colombian mercenaries, provides drone operations and artillery support to RSF forces in the field.
Egypt supplies SAF with airpower, rear-area logistics, and strategic depth, and hosts SAF drone launch bases per UN documentation.
Turkey supplies SAF with Bayraktar drone capability through defense-industrial channels deepened by the April 2026 Turkey-UK Strategic Partnership Framework.
Battle Deaths
Negotiated Agreements
Mar 28, 2021
AgreementDeclaration of Principles between the Transitional Government of Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement - North
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, President of the Republic of South Sudan Gov. David M. Beasley, Executive Director, World Food Programme
Oct 3, 2020
AgreementJuba Agreement for Peace in Sudan
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: Witnesses: General Abdulfatah Burhan Abdulrahman President of the Transitional Sovereign Council The Arab Republic of Egypt The State of Qatar The African Union The United Nations The European Union Representative of the Arab League Ambassador Khalid Abdulrahim Abdalghafar
Sep 3, 2020
AgreementAddis Ababa Agreement on Principles
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Aug 31, 2020
AgreementJuba Agreement
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: South Sudan, Chad, Egypt
Feb 21, 2020
AgreementEastern Track Agreement between the Transitional Government of Sudan and the Sudan Revolutionary Front
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Jan 24, 2020
AgreementJuba agreement Two areas Framework agreement
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.