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StateAmericasUSADeclining

United States

Washington is winning firefights in Iran but losing the strategic arbitrage around them.

PF Score

77

▲1

Authority

74

Reach

80

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

77Overall▲1

Iran war friction keeps U.S. reach capped despite intact global primacy.

74Auth

Domestic mobilization remains strong despite foreign policy turbulence.

80Reach

Iran campaign exposes limits in converting force into outcomes.

Depth: Patron
Allies & Partners20
IsraelAlly
+88
Lev
72
Dep
58
UkrainePartner
+47+82
Lev
78
Dep
22
TaiwanPartner
+15+80
Lev
65
Dep
20
BahrainPartner
+15+80
Lev
75
Dep
25
Adversaries & Rivals20
IranAdversary
+2-88
Lev
82
Dep
18
Primeiro Comando Da CapitalAdversary
-85
Lev
55
Dep
5
GAESAAdversary
-85
Lev
72
Dep
15
North KoreaAdversary
-5-80
Lev
55
Dep
10
All conflicts
Iraq-Iran Influence CompetitionEscalated
Middle East· Proxy War
US-China Strategic CompetitionEscalated
Global· Proxy War
Iran-Israel/US WarEscalated
Middle East· Interstate
Iraq ISIS and PMF InsurgencyWar
Middle East· Insurgency
March 2026Declining

United States: Military Gains, Strategic Drift

Joint US-Israeli strikes systematically degraded Iran's ballistic missile production infrastructure and decapitated senior IRGC commanders, compressing Tehran's offensive regeneration timeline from months to years.

Primary Drivers

CoerciveAllianceEconomic
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Previous

Overextension and Self-LiquidationMar 2026Post-Epic Fury Institutional ErosionMar 2026

Donald Trump

45th and 47th President of the United States

J.D. Vance

50th Vice President of the United States

Marco Rubio

US Secretary of State