War / Middle East
Iraq-Iran Influence Competition
A fragile US-Iran ceasefire pauses direct strikes but leaves Iran's Iraq proxy network intact and nuclear talks deadlocked.
Iraq is fighting two wars at once on its own soil.
ISIS remnant cells, survivors of the caliphate that fell in 2019, still mount guerrilla attacks across Diyala, Kirkuk, and Anbar. Meanwhile the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Iran-backed militia coalition formed in 2014 to fight ISIS and later folded into the Iraqi state, has attacked US forces over 100 times since 2023. Baghdad relies on both the US, which keeps roughly 2,500 troops in country, and Iran, whose Revolutionary Guard directs the most powerful PMF factions.
The Iraqi state fights one enemy with help from two patrons who are fighting each other.
Trajectory
The May 2026 US-Iran ceasefire MOU has opened a diplomatic window but has not resolved Iraq's militia governance crisis.
Iran's successor regime under Mojtaba Khamenei retains coercive leverage through Hormuz and residual proxy networks, but its operational command over Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and allied factions has structurally degraded following the assassination of Khamenei and the destruction of IRGC command nodes in the February-June 2025 campaign.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Analysis
The collapse of IRGC command coherence following Khamenei's assassination removes the arbitration layer that historically managed escalation among rival PMF factions.
The US-Iran ceasefire MOU's structural ambiguity, with both sides describing incompatible versions of what was agreed, means the diplomatic window could close rapidly if nuclear talks stall.
ISIS remnant cells in the Hamrin Basin and Anbar desert are positioned to exploit the dual vacuum created by ISF attention diverted toward militia management and the degradation of coordinated US-Iraqi intelligence.
Historical Context
May 25, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US CENTCOM Strikes Southern Iran Missile Sites and Mine-Laying Vessels
US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian missile infrastructure and boats attempting to lay mines in southern Iran, framing the action as self-defense during an active ceasefire.
May 24, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations Stall Over Core Definitional Disputes
Negotiations between the United States and Iran toward a deal ending the nuclear standoff slowed materially as both sides entrenched over two foundational issues: the framing of Iran's nuclear program in any agreement text, and the scope of financial sanctions relief Tehran would receive.
May 2, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
US Charges IRGC-Kata'ib Hezbollah Operative for Transnational Terror Campaign
US federal authorities arrested and charged Iraqi national al-Saadi, a Kata'ib Hezbollah commander, with six terrorism-related offenses tied to a coordinated campaign of attacks across the US, UK, Netherlands, France, and North Macedonia.
Apr 28, 2026
Mixed
Political
Iraq Names Compromise Prime Minister-Designate Under U.S.-Iran Pressure
Iraq's president designated Ali al-Zaidi, a businessman with no public political profile, as prime minister-designate after U.S. coercive pressure — including suspension of security assistance and dollar transfers — forced the withdrawal of Iran-aligned candidates al-Maliki and al-Sudani.
Apr 22, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Prepare New Islamabad Talks Amid Hormuz Blockade
The United States and Iran signaled readiness for another round of talks in Islamabad even as a U.S. naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz sharply constrained Iranian shipping and Iran threatened retaliation for a seized cargo vessel.
Apr 20, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran War and IRGC Leadership Consolidation Post-Strike
U.S. and Israeli military action killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior deputies, producing a leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and consolidating IRGC control over Iranian governance.
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
NATO Ankara Summit Agenda Push for European Burden-Shifting
The article outlines a coordinated policy push ahead of the 2026 NATO Summit to formalize a rebalancing of alliance responsibilities from the United States toward European allies.
Apr 20, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Pakistan Talks Under Hormuz Coercion
The United States is preparing a new round of talks with Iran in Pakistan while simultaneously enforcing a maritime blockade, threatening airstrikes, and demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and long-term limits on uranium enrichment.
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
United States Expands Iran Naval Blockade to Global High Seas
The United States broadened its blockade from Iranian ports and nearby waters to a de facto global interdiction posture against any vessel materially supporting Iran.
Apr 20, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
UAE Seeks U.S. Dollar Backstop Amid Iran War Disruption
The UAE opened preliminary talks with U.S.
Apr 19, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Europe Advances Independent Strait of Hormuz Escort Mission
France, Britain, Germany, Italy and other partners are planning a multinational naval mission to escort shipping and potentially clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 19, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Reimposes Strait of Hormuz Restrictions and IRGC Fires on Tanker
Iran restored restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after a brief reopening and signaled that transit would remain constrained while US measures against Iranian shipping continued.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran War Disrupts Strait of Hormuz and Raises Global Macroeconomic Risk
The war involving Iran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz for more than a month and left post-ceasefire shipping flows uncertain even after combat largely subsided.
Apr 18, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S. Blockade of Iranian Ports After Failed Islamabad Talks
After talks in Islamabad broke down, the United States moved naval forces to block vessels leaving Iranian ports in order to pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon transit tolls.
Apr 17, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Expands Maritime and Financial Pressure on Iran
Washington is pairing fresh sanctions threats with a global maritime interdiction posture aimed at constraining Iranian exports and external support networks.
Apr 16, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Türkiye and Azerbaijan Coordinate to Deter Kurdish Spillover from Iran Conflict
Türkiye and Azerbaijan are aligning diplomatically and militarily to deter any Kurdish militant expansion linked to the Iran conflict, especially in northern Iraq and Iran's West Azerbaijan province.
Apr 16, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Tightens Maritime and Financial Pressure on Iran
The United States is intensifying coercive pressure on Iran through a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, planned resumption of sanctions waivers on Iranian oil, and warnings to financial institutions about exposure to Iran-linked actors.
Apr 15, 2026
Mixed
Military
United States Imposes Iranian Port Blockade While Pursuing Renewed Nuclear Talks
The United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports after weekend talks in Pakistan failed to produce a settlement, while both sides signaled possible renewed negotiations.
Apr 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Demonstrates Strait of Hormuz Closure Leverage in U.S.-Iran War
Iran's wartime disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz created a new deterrent instrument after degradation of its proxy network, missile posture, and nuclear infrastructure.
Apr 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
United States Begins Hormuz Blockade Enforcement Against Iran-Linked Shipping
The United States is initiating naval interdiction of ships that pay Iranian tolls in the Strait of Hormuz and beginning mine-clearing operations against Iranian-laid mines.
Apr 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Conflict Expands Maritime Risk from Hormuz into the Indian Ocean
The discussion identifies the Hormuz crisis and associated naval losses, including the sinking of IRIS Dena, as a turning point that extends coercive confrontation beyond the Gulf into the Indian Ocean.
Apr 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Triggers Global and African Growth Downgrades
Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is constraining oil, LNG and commodity flows, forcing the IMF and World Bank to downgrade growth forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa and the wider global economy.
Apr 12, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Gulf States Diversify Air Defense Procurement After Iranian Strike Campaign
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are seeking alternative air-defense systems and cooperation agreements after Iranian attacks depleted interceptor stocks and exposed delivery bottlenecks in U.S. supply chains.
Apr 9, 2026
Stable
Other
Profile of Brett McGurk's Cross-Administration Influence on U.S. Middle East Policy
This is not a discrete operational event but an analytical account of how Brett McGurk shaped U.S. Middle East policy across Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Israel-Gaza, and Iran over two decades.
Apr 9, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Two-Week Cease-Fire and Islamabad Talks Launch
The United States and Iran entered a two-week cease-fire intended to pause direct confrontation and create space for negotiations in Islamabad.
Apr 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Expands Gulf Retaliation Threats and Regional Strike Activity
Iran publicly added Saudi and Emirati energy infrastructure to its target set and regional missile-drone activity hit or threatened Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Israel and Gulf maritime infrastructure as US pressure intensified.
Apr 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes Jordan With Drones and Missile
Iran's launch of drones and a missile into Jordanian territory demonstrates willingness and capacity to impose direct coercive costs on a neighboring state outside the primary Iran-Israel theater.
Apr 6, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian State Retains Internal Control After Five Weeks of U.S.-Israeli Strikes
Five weeks after the opening U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran still shows functioning state control along key internal corridors and in Tehran despite extensive bombardment.
Apr 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure Cripples Iraqi Oil Exports
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran has sharply reduced Iraq's oil exports and forced a major production cut across southern fields.
Apr 5, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Iranian Kurdish Opposition Denies US Arms Transfer Claims
Public claims that the United States armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups were denied by the principal Kurdish factions, which emphasized they had neither received weapons nor established such channels with Washington.
Apr 4, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Israeli Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Israel escalated coercive pressure on Iran by threatening attacks on its energy infrastructure unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 4, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Israeli Strikes Sustain Air Superiority and Target Iran's Reconstitution Pathways
US and Israeli forces continued nationwide strikes in Iran while targeting air defenses, missile-supporting petrochemical infrastructure, state broadcasting, and the Shalamcheh border crossing.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Grants Iraq Exemption From Strait of Hormuz Transit Restrictions
Iran signaled that any transit restrictions it imposes in the Strait of Hormuz would not apply to Iraq, implying Tehran believes it can selectively regulate passage through the waterway.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Claims Downing of US Aircraft and Expands Regional Retaliation
The reported event indicates a sharp escalation in direct Iran-US confrontation, with Iran claiming it downed a US A-10 in the Gulf while also announcing attacks on a commercial ship in Bahrain allegedly linked to Israel.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
United Kingdom Expands U.S. Access to British Bases for Strikes on Iran
The United Kingdom moved from restricting U.S. use of British bases for early strikes on Iran to allowing operations framed first as defensive and later as necessary to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Endures U.S.-Israeli Air Campaign and Seeks Negotiated Off-Ramp
The article describes an ongoing U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran that, by the author's account, has failed to topple the Islamic Republic or sever leadership continuity.
Apr 4, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Resists U.S. Coercive Air Campaign Despite Sustained Strikes
After five weeks of U.S.-led war against Iran, Tehran has not accepted U.S. demands despite more than 12,000 strikes and the killing of senior leaders. Iran's continued resistance, including downing a U.S.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Shoots Down U.S. F-15E Over Khuzestan
Iranian air defenses reportedly downed a U.S. F-15E operating over Khuzestan, directly contesting U.S. claims of air superiority.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Islamic State Ecosystem Expands Drone-Enabled Lone-Actor Attack Capability
The article identifies a cross-regional pattern in which Islamic State-linked propaganda and instructional material are helping lone actors and small cells adopt commercial drones for surveillance, weapons transport, and attempted attacks.
Apr 4, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft in Active Conflict Theater
Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft on April 4, 2026 — an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iranian territory and an A-10 over the Persian Gulf — marking the first loss of U.S. aircraft in the conflict.
Apr 4, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Intelligence Assessment: Iran Retains ~50% Strike Capability After 34 Days of US-Israeli Campaign
A US intelligence assessment assesses Iran retains approximately half its missile launchers and suicide drone stockpiles after over a month of intensive US-Israeli strikes.
Apr 3, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft
Iranian fire brought down two U.S. military fixed-wing aircraft roughly one month into the war, with two pilots rescued and one still missing.
Apr 3, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Trump Requests Record U.S. Defense Budget for FY2027
The White House requested roughly $1.5 trillion in U.S. defense spending for fiscal year 2027, a major increase over the prior year and a signal of expanded warfighting priorities.
Apr 3, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran-Israel Missile Exchange and U.S. Infrastructure Threat Escalation
Iran launched a new missile salvo against Israel on April 3, 2026, with Israeli air defenses activated in response. Simultaneously, U.S.
Mar 31, 2026
Mixed
Military
US-Israeli Combined Force Degrades Iranian Missile, Command, and Proxy Infrastructure
The US-Israeli combined force has struck over 20 Iranian missile bases, causing severe damage to four major production sites (Khojir, Shahroud, Parchin, Hakimiyeh) and eliminating local IRGC commanders, reducing Iran's missile salvo rate to its lowest since the war's start.
Mar 31, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Netanyahu Passover Address Claims Systematic Defeat of Iran's Axis
Netanyahu delivered a televised national address framing the joint Israel-U.S. military campaign as having successfully dismantled Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capability, proxy network, and senior leadership.
Mar 31, 2026
Mixed
Military
Kataib Hezbollah Abduction of American Journalist in Baghdad
Freelance American journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted by individuals linked to Kataib Hezbollah on a busy central Baghdad street, transported in a two-car convoy, and retained despite a vehicle chase that resulted in one suspect's arrest.
Mar 31, 2026
Mixed
Military
Trump Signals US Military Exit from Iran Within 2-3 Weeks
President Trump publicly declared US military objectives in Iran largely achieved — specifically nuclear capability denial and effective regime change — and indicated a withdrawal within two to three weeks regardless of a formal deal.
Mar 31, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Regional Iran War Spillover into Iraq
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has drawn Iraq into active conflict despite Baghdad's sustained neutrality effort.
Mar 31, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Oil Tanker Near Dubai Amid Ongoing US-Israel Campaign
Iran attacked the fully laden Kuwaiti crude carrier Al-Salmi near Dubai, marking one of the most significant vessel strikes since the US-Israel bombing campaign began over a month ago.
Mar 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Israeli War on Iran Triggers Chinese Strategic Reassessment
A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has escalated into a regional conflict, threatening Strait of Hormuz transit and disrupting global energy markets.
Mar 30, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran — One-Month Assessment
One month into a joint U.S.-Israeli military assault on Iran, significant tactical damage has been inflicted — including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, destruction of Iran's air force and navy, and degradation of its missile and nuclear programs — yet Iran's regime has survived, maintained Hormuz disruption, and imposed severe global economic costs.
Mar 29, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
IRGC-Bonyad Patronage Complex Sustains Regime Cohesion Amid Israeli-U.S. Military Campaign
Despite a sustained Israeli and American air campaign degrading Iran's military leadership and infrastructure, the regime's economic patronage network — anchored in the IRGC's quasi-corporate role and tax-exempt religious foundations — continues to bind millions of loyalists through material incentives.
Mar 29, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Sustains Multi-Theater Strike Campaign Amid U.S.-Israeli Military Pressure
Iran has continued launching ballistic missiles and Shahed drones against Israel, U.S. military installations in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf state infrastructure despite a months-long U.S.-Israeli air campaign.
Mar 28, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Launch Ballistic Missiles at Southern Israel, Enter Iran-Led Regional War
On March 28, 2026, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) launched two ballistic missiles at southern Israel, both intercepted, formally entering the active theater of Iran's regional war against the US and Israel.
Mar 27, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S. Builds Toward 17,000 Ground Troops on Iran's Periphery
The U.S. is considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East, supplementing approximately 7,000 already ordered to the region, as part of a coercive posture against Iran during an active conflict.
Mar 26, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran: Four-Week Assessment
After approximately four weeks of active U.S.-Israel military strikes, two-thirds of Iran's missile, drone, and naval production facilities have been destroyed or damaged.
Mar 26, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli Joint Military Operation Against Iran
A joint U.S.-Israeli military operation has been underway for over three weeks, employing airstrikes that have eliminated specific Iranian leaders, degraded missile and naval assets, but failed to achieve regime change or destroy Iran's nuclear knowledge base.
Mar 25, 2026
Mixed
Other
Trump Pursuit of Post-Khamenei Authoritarian Settlement in Iran
Following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the context of a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, President Trump articulated a preference for a Venezuela-style leadership replacement — substituting one authoritarian figure with a more transactional one — and expressed desire to be involved in selecting Khamenei's successor.
Mar 25, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Diplomacy Amid Active War
While an active military conflict is underway between the U.S. and Iran, Turkish, Egyptian, and Pakistani mediators are pushing for direct talks, with both sides publicly presenting maximalist demands that exceed pre-war positions.
Mar 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Missile and Drone Attacks on UAE and Gulf States
Iran launched premeditated missile and drone strikes against UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council states in response to US and Israeli military operations against Iran, deploying an estimated 7,000 projectiles across the region.
Mar 14, 2026
Mixed
Military
United States Reallocates JASSM-ER Stockpiles to Iran Campaign
The United States is reportedly preparing to commit nearly its full inventory of JASSM-ER long-range cruise missiles to ongoing operations against Iran, drawing from stockpiles previously assigned to other theaters.
Mar 12, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
US-Europe Rift Over NATO Role in Iran Confrontation
The event is a widening strategic disagreement inside NATO over whether the alliance should support a more assertive posture toward Iran beyond its traditional Euro-Atlantic defense mission.
Mar 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Joint US-Israeli Military Operation Against Iran and Succession of Mojtaba Khamenei
A joint American-Israeli military operation has been targeting Iran's coercive apparatus — IRGC commanders, missile sites, and military installations — for approximately three weeks.
Mar 3, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Drone Strike Damages U.S. Embassy in Riyadh
Iranian drones penetrated Riyadh's defended Diplomatic Quarter and struck the U.S. Embassy compound, heavily damaging secure areas and exposing vulnerabilities in both U.S. force protection and Saudi air defense coverage.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Death of Ali Khamenei and Succession of Mojtaba Khamenei
Ali Khamenei's death triggered a rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei, but the transition removes the only figure with enough authority to arbitrate among Iran's rival power centers.
Mar 1, 2026
Mixed
Other
Death of Ali Khamenei and Appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, following a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike campaign that killed him alongside senior officials and massively degraded Iran's military, air defenses, missile production, and nuclear facilities.
Mar 1, 2026
Mixed
Institutional
Death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Succession Crisis
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes in February 2026 that killed him and other senior officials while massively degrading Iran's military, nuclear, and security apparatus.
Mar 1, 2026
Mixed
Military
Shahed Drone Strike Kills US Soldiers at Kuwait Military Operations Center
An Iranian-designed Shahed drone struck a US military operations center in Kuwait, killing six American soldiers during the first week of a US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Israeli Military Strike on Iran Triggers Regional Energy Crisis
A US-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28, 2026 disrupted regional energy flows and triggered a global energy price shock, with cascading effects across Asian import-dependent economies.
Feb 28, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Kills Khamenei, Consolidates IRGC Hard-Line Rule
U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran in late February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior regime figures.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Turkey Maintains Neutrality Amid U.S.-Israeli War on Iran
Turkey has refused to support the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran or permit use of its airspace for strikes, while simultaneously backing Pakistani-mediated negotiations and urging Washington toward a negotiated settlement.
Feb 28, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Adopts Regionalized Escalation and Strait of Hormuz Closure Strategy
Following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran shifted from a primarily retaliatory deterrence model to a broader coercive strategy that regionalizes conflict through attacks or threats against energy, financial, and transit infrastructure.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Expends 850+ Tomahawk Missiles in Operation Epic Fury
In the first month of Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the United States fired at least 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles — the largest single-conflict expenditure on record.
Feb 28, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israel Strikes Kill Khamenei, Trigger Iranian Leadership Succession Amid Ongoing War
Beginning February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and multiple senior officials, with Mojtaba Khamenei subsequently installed as the new supreme leader by a clerical council.
Feb 28, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israel War Against Iran Derails American Asia Pivot
The Trump administration initiated military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, triggering a sustained conflict requiring a $200 billion Pentagon supplemental budget request.
Feb 22, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Formation of Iranian Kurdish Militant Coalition for Potential Western Iran Offensive
A coalition of Iranian Kurdish armed factions was formed to coordinate potential operations in western Iran amid reported consideration of U.S. and Israeli support.
Feb 1, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli Campaign Against Iran Triggers Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Third Islamic Republic Transition
Coordinated U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian military and political leaders, triggering a succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and a comprehensive Iranian asymmetric counteroffensive.
Jan 30, 2026
Escalating
Political
Damascus Reasserts Control Over Northeast Syria After SDF Retreat
The Syrian government used military pressure, tribal coordination, and a formal integration agreement to dismantle the SDF's autonomous governing position across much of northeast Syria.
Jan 19, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drone Attacks on Syrian Army and SDF-US Base Near Iraqi Border
Iran-aligned factions in Iraq launched drone attacks against Syrian army bases near the Iraqi border and a northeast Syrian base hosting US forces.
Jan 1, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Pope Leo XIV Publicly Challenges U.S. War Policy and Iran Military Campaign
Pope Leo XIV, beginning in January 2026, issued a sustained series of public challenges to U.S. foreign policy — including the war on Iran, deportation of Catholic immigrants, and dismissal of multilateral institutions — through papal addresses, encyclicals, and diplomatic channels.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pope Leo XIV Publicly Challenges U.S. War Policy and Trump Administration
Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, has emerged as a sustained institutional critic of U.S. foreign policy, condemning the Trump administration's military actions, deportation policies, and dismissal of multilateral institutions.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Emerges as West Asian Security Stabilizer and U.S.-Iran Mediator
Following its May 2025 military conflict with India, Pakistan signed a NATO-like mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and joined the Trump administration's Gaza Peace Board in January 2026.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Summit Convenes Amid Iran War Economic Fallout
ASEAN heads of government convened in Cebu, Philippines, with the economic fallout of an ongoing Iran war dominating the agenda, as oil prices breached $100 per barrel and inflation hit Vietnam and the Philippines hardest.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Exposes Limits of Military Superiority in Multipolar Order
The ongoing U.S.-Iran war is producing a structural divergence between American military dominance and its capacity to achieve durable political outcomes, mirroring the pattern of Vietnam and Iraq.
Jan 1, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S. Bombing Campaign Against Iran and Congressional War Powers Standoff
The United States has conducted a sustained bombing campaign against Iran for nearly two months, with ceasefire negotiations ongoing but unresolved.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Khamenei Killing Catalyzes Bottom-Up Shiite Mobilization
The article describes how the killing of Iran's supreme leader, combined with expanded U.S. and Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked areas in Lebanon and PMF-linked infrastructure in Iraq, is transforming Shiite identity into a stronger mobilizing force.
Aug 11, 2025
De-escalating
Military
United States Announces Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to Pressure Iran
The United States announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran in Islamabad failed to produce agreement on the nuclear issue.
Jul 22, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Kataib Hezbollah Kidnapping of American Journalist in Baghdad
Kataib Hezbollah allegedly abducted American freelance journalist Shelly Kittelson in Baghdad, marking the group's second known kidnapping of a Western national following the 2023 abduction of Princeton graduate student Elizabeth Tsurkov.
Jul 21, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Armed Conflict Week Five: Airstrikes on Tehran and Strait of Hormuz Closure
U.S. airstrikes continue against Tehran targets as the bilateral conflict extends into its fifth week, with ground troop deployment now under active consideration.
Jul 18, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Israeli Strikes Destroy 70% of Iran's Steel Production Capacity
Multiple waves of US and Israeli airstrikes have disabled Iran's two largest steel plants, with Netanyahu claiming 70 percent of Iranian steel production capacity has been destroyed.
Jul 17, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister for Iran Sanctions Evasion
The U.S.
Jul 17, 2025
Escalating
Military
US-Israel Strike Campaign Against Iran Enters Day 32 With Escalating Coercion
US and Israeli air strikes continue against Iranian territory including Tehran and Isfahan on the 32nd day of active conflict.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Alliance
UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC
The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, effective Friday, citing unfair quota allocations that have constrained its crude export capacity.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Kidnapping of American Journalist in Baghdad
An American journalist was kidnapped from Saadoun Street in central Baghdad and transferred via two vehicles toward Babil province southwest of the capital.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Kidnapping of U.S. Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad
Freelance U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted from Saadoun Street in central Baghdad and transported toward Babil province southwest of the capital.
Jul 15, 2025
Mixed
Military
Hegseth Acknowledges Russo-Chinese Intelligence Support to Iran, Signals US Response
US Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed at a Pentagon briefing that Russia and China are actively providing Iran with intelligence on US troop movements, and stated the US is 'addressing it.' This represents a significant trilateral intelligence-sharing challenge to US operational security in the Persian Gulf theater.
Jul 15, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran Downs 146th US MQ-9 Drone Near Isfahan
Iran's air defence units claimed the interception and destruction of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone near Isfahan, marking what Iranian officials describe as the 146th drone shot down during the conflict.
Jul 14, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran Retains Near-Weapons-Grade Uranium Stockpile Despite U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign
Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2024 and February 2025 that destroyed Iran's active enrichment sites, Iran retains approximately 10 tons of enriched uranium — including nearly 1,000 pounds at 60% purity sufficient for roughly 11 weapons — buried under rubble and inaccessible but not destroyed.
Jul 14, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Post-Operation Epic Fury Iran Nuclear Negotiations Deadlock
Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025, multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran negotiations mediated by Oman and then Pakistan have failed to resolve the enrichment dispute.
Jul 14, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
US-Iran War: Trump Administration Seeks Arab Gulf State War Cost-Sharing
The Trump administration publicly signaled intent to demand Arab states fund US military operations against Iran, mirroring the 1990-91 Gulf War cost-sharing model.
Jul 10, 2025
Escalating
Military
USS Gerald R. Ford Rejoins Operation Epic Fury; Three-Carrier Deployment Established
The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is returning to Operation Epic Fury in the Eastern Mediterranean following a five-day maintenance and liberty port visit in Split, Croatia, after a non-combat fire in its laundry spaces.
Jul 8, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
China-Pakistan Joint Ceasefire Proposal for Iran War
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar issued a five-point joint proposal in Beijing calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Iran war, protection of Strait of Hormuz shipping, and launch of peace talks.
Jul 8, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Trump Declares Iran Nuclear Threat Eliminated Despite Retained Fissile Stockpile
President Trump declared in the Oval Office that Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon had been eliminated, despite no evidence that Iran's ~970 pounds of highly enriched uranium has been removed or destroyed.
Jul 7, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
White House Releases 2026 U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy
The White House released its 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy, organizing U.S. CT efforts around three lines of effort: legacy Islamist terrorism, violent left-wing extremism, and narcoterrorism and transnational gangs.
Jul 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Drone Campaign Against Gulf States
Iraqi Shia militias, increasingly integrated into Iran's IRGC command structure, launched hundreds of explosive drones against Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain over five weeks, striking energy infrastructure including the Yanbu refinery and Eastern Province oil fields.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran Suffers Strategic Degradation Despite Hormuz Closure
The article assesses the net effects of the recent U.S.-Israeli campaign on Iran and concludes that Tehran's effective power has declined despite surviving the war and temporarily closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 1, 2025
Stable
Military
Russia Expands Limited Intelligence and Military Support to Iran During U.S.-Iran Conflict
The discussion indicates Russia is likely providing at least some intelligence support to Iran and has transferred improved drone know-how derived from earlier Iranian systems.
Jun 30, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure Exposes Breakdown of U.S.-Led Economic Order
The article frames the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the downstream consequence of a U.S.- and Israel-led war against Iran, producing a major energy supply shock and revealing the inability of existing multilateral institutions to constrain the hegemon.
Jun 30, 2025
Escalating
Military
United States Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Port Traffic via Hormuz Approaches
The United States announced that its navy would interdict ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, effectively imposing a naval blockade in response to Iran's continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 28, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Expands Global Interdiction of Iran-Linked Shipping
The United States is preparing to board and seize Iran-linked tankers and commercial vessels in international waters, extending enforcement beyond the Persian Gulf into a global maritime pressure campaign.
Jun 24, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
Hormuz Blockage Accelerates China-Centric Energy Transition
The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted hydrocarbon exports from the Gulf, forcing import-dependent states to adopt emergency conservation measures and accelerate renewable energy deployment.
Jun 24, 2025
Escalating
Military
Trump Issues Escalatory Ultimatum to Iran
The US president publicly threatened catastrophic destruction if Iran does not accept US demands, while senior US officials signaled additional coercive options remain available.
Jun 24, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Regional War Spillover Intensifies Pressure on Iraqi Sovereignty
Escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States is pulling Iraq into the conflict despite Baghdad's formal neutrality.
Jun 23, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Xi Urges Saudi Arabia to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open
Xi Jinping used a direct call with Mohammed bin Salman to press for open commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions.
Jun 22, 2025
Escalating
Military
U.S.-Israeli Rescue of Downed American Airman in Iran
After Iran shot down a U.S. F-15, the United States successfully recovered the stranded airman from Iranian territory or contested space, with Israeli intelligence support and a localized Israeli pause in strikes to enable the mission.
Jun 22, 2025
Escalating
Military
US Deep-Penetration Rescue Mission in Isfahan
US forces reportedly inserted special operations personnel deep into Iran to recover a downed airman, using airpower to suppress approaching Iranian units and destroying stranded aircraft to prevent capture.
Jun 22, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Iran Rejects Ceasefire Framework, Conditions Resolution on Guarantees and Compensation
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly rejected a ceasefire framing in favor of a full regional cessation of hostilities, while characterizing US-Iran contacts as informal message exchanges rather than negotiations.
Jun 22, 2025
Mixed
Military
Trump Declares Iran Nuclear Objective Achieved, Announces US Force Withdrawal
US President Trump announced American forces will withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks, asserting the campaign objective of preventing Iranian nuclear weapons capability has been achieved.
Jun 22, 2025
Escalating
Military
IRGC Threatens US Tech Companies as Legitimate Military Targets
Iran's IRGC issued a conditional threat to strike more than 15 US technology companies operating in the region, designating firms involved in AI and ICT-enabled targeting as legitimate military targets.
Jun 22, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
Pakistan Publicly Announces US-Iran Mediation Role
Pakistan formally disclosed its backchannel mediation role between the United States and Iran, with Foreign Minister Dar claiming bilateral confidence from both parties.
Jun 21, 2025
Mixed
Military
PMF Paramilitary Convoy Enters Iran Under Humanitarian Cover
Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) entered Iran via the Shalamcheh border crossing in a convoy framed publicly as a humanitarian aid mission carrying food and medical supplies.
Jun 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Rejects U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Talks in Islamabad
Iran formally refused to engage U.S. negotiators in Islamabad and declared Washington's terms unacceptable, effectively halting the Pakistan-led mediation track backed by Turkey and Egypt.
Jun 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran-Linked Factions Escalate Attacks Across Iraq Amid US-Israeli War on Iran
Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups under the Islamic Resistance in Iraq umbrella have launched sustained drone and missile attacks on US military and commercial targets across Iraq, including in Erbil, Baghdad, and Basra, prompting US and Israeli retaliatory strikes on PMU positions.
Jun 20, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran Strikes Prince Sultan Air Base, Destroys U.S. Aircraft
Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, heavily damaging or destroying a U.S. E-3 AWACS radar aircraft and multiple KC-135 refueling tankers, wounding approximately twelve troops.
Jun 19, 2025
Mixed
Military
US Destroys Iran's B1 Tehran-Karaj Highway Bridge
US forces destroyed the B1 highway bridge connecting Tehran to Karaj, Iran's two most populous urban centers, killing eight and injuring 95.
Jun 17, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iraqi PMF Forces Enter Iran's Khuzestan Province for Internal Security Deployment
At least 1,000 armed PMF fighters, including elements of Kata'ib Hezbollah, entered Iran's Khuzestan province via the Basra border and Shalamcheh crossing, deploying to Khorramshahr, Abadan, and Ahvaz with military vehicles and equipment.
Jun 16, 2025
Mixed
Military
Trump Threatens Kharg Island Seizure Amid Active US-Iran Military Conflict
President Trump has publicly threatened to deploy US ground forces to seize Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass, as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate.
Jun 14, 2025
Mixed
Other
Iran War Reshapes Russia's Energy and Security Leverage Over Europe
The conflict around Iran temporarily improves Russia's position by raising oil prices, easing pressure on Kremlin revenues, and diverting Western air-defence inventories and political attention away from Ukraine.
Jun 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
Trump Signals US Exit from Iran War, Shifts Hormuz Responsibility to Third Parties
Trump publicly declared US military objectives in Iran largely achieved and indicated a withdrawal within two to three weeks, framing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a problem for energy-dependent third parties — particularly China — rather than the US.
Jun 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran-US War: Diplomatic Signals Amid Continued Hormuz Closure and AWACS Loss
A five-week-old US-Iran war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering global energy supply disruptions, $4/gallon US gasoline, and significant inflation risk.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
Structural Collapse of Post-WWII Peace Architecture
The author diagnoses a systemic breakdown of the two normative load-bearing structures — prohibition on wars of aggression and the imperative against empire — that sustained eight decades of relative great-power peace.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Israeli-U.S. Military Campaign Destroys Iranian Nuclear and Military Infrastructure
Over 12 days in June 2025, Israel struck Iranian cities and military installations, enabling the United States to deploy 14 bunker-busting bombs against Iranian nuclear sites.
Jun 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Regime Recaptures Urban Public Space Under Wartime Mobilization
Since the onset of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the Islamic Republic has deployed Basij networks, IRGC-affiliated groups, and loyalist civilian formations into urban public spaces across Tehran and major cities, reversing a decade-long trend of civilian social encroachment on regime-controlled norms.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Trump Deploys Troops to Middle East, Considers Kharg Island Seizure
President Trump has deployed thousands of US troops to the Middle East region amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, while openly discussing seizure of Iran's Kharg Island — the hub for approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports.
May 21, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Denies U.S. Basing and Overflight Access, Curtailing Hormuz Mission
Saudi Arabia denied the United States base and overflight access, directly contributing to Trump ending a U.S. military mission in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week.
May 19, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Extends U.S.-Iran Truce Amid Hormuz Standoff
Trump extended the U.S.-Iran truce at the eleventh hour to allow Iran's leadership to produce a unified negotiating proposal, reversing his earlier stated opposition to an extension.
May 19, 2025
Mixed
Military
Emergence of the Global Missile War Era: Iran, Ukraine, and South Asia Conflicts
Concurrent missile conflicts across the Middle East, Europe, and South Asia — involving the US, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, India, and Pakistan — mark a structural inflection in warfare where precision strike capability has proliferated to the point that even middling powers can hold great-power assets at risk.
May 18, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Issues Renewed Military Ultimatum to Iran Amid Stalled Nuclear Talks
President Trump issued a social media ultimatum threatening military action against Iran unless it accepts U.S. terms on its nuclear program, while Iran submitted a counterproposal through Pakistani mediation and publicly dismissed the threats.
May 17, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Preliminary Ceasefire and Nuclear MOU Announcement
President Trump announced via social media that a memorandum of understanding with Iran had been 'largely negotiated,' covering a ceasefire across all fronts, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, and release of frozen Iranian assets.
May 16, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Kataib Hezbollah Commander Charged with U.S. and Western Attack Plots
U.S. federal authorities unsealed charges against Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander, for directing at least 18 attacks in Europe and Canada and planning attacks on Jewish sites in New York City and Los Angeles.
May 16, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Emergency Arms Sales to Gulf Partners and Israel Post-Iran War
The Trump administration invoked emergency authority for the third time to authorize $8.6 billion in arms transfers to Israel, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, bypassing standard congressional review.
May 14, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Publicly Accuses UAE of Direct Military Involvement at BRICS Forum
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi accused the UAE of direct military aggression against Iran during the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi, citing UAE participation in strikes in early April and its failure to condemn the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28.
May 11, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran Issues Hormuz Coercion Warning to Gulf States Amid Naval Clashes
Iran's military spokesman explicitly threatened Gulf states with 'severe consequences' for complying with US sanctions, leveraging Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas flows.
May 7, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Trump Signs Revised National Counterterrorism Strategy
President Trump signed a new national counterterrorism strategy that reorients U.S. counterterrorism priorities away from jihadist and far-right threats toward drug cartels in the Western Hemisphere and vaguely defined left-wing extremist groups.
May 5, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Iraq Coordination Framework Nominates Ali al-Zaidi as Prime Minister
The Coordination Framework, Iraq's dominant Shia political coalition, nominated businessman Ali al-Zaidi as prime minister-designate following months of post-election gridlock.
May 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iranian Ballistic Missile Strike Destroys US E-3 Sentry AWACS at Prince Sultan Air Base
Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles, destroying a US E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft — valued at approximately $300 million and the first combat loss of the type — while damaging several additional military jets.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
Israeli Strike Kills PRC Senior Commander Ahmed Sarhan in Khan Younis
Israeli forces conducted an operation in Khan Younis targeting the capture of Ahmed Sarhan, a senior commander in the Nasser Salah al-Din Brigades of the Popular Resistance Committees. Sarhan was killed during the operation.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Wartime Social Consolidation and Internet Isolation in Iran
Iran has maintained a near-total international internet blackout since January 2025, substituting a domestic intranet ecosystem with local analogues to major platforms.
May 1, 2025
Mixed
Institutional
UAE Exits OPEC, Declaring Strategic Divergence from Gulf Consensus
The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2025, without consulting Saudi Arabia — a deliberate signal of strategic autonomy.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Hormuz Chokepoint Crisis and Western Energy Corridor Strategy Debate
Iran's effective leverage over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude, condensate, and gas transit — has created a structural energy security crisis for the West with no near-term military or diplomatic resolution in sight.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. War Powers Resolution Deadline Approaches for Iran Military Campaign
The 60-day War Powers Resolution clock, triggered by Trump's March 2 congressional notification of U.S.-Israeli joint strikes against Iran beginning February 28, expires May 1.
May 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
US Military Escalation Against Iran Accelerates China's Structural Power Position
US military engagement against Iran, framed as degrading a pillar of Chinese-Russian Eurasian influence, is assessed as structurally counterproductive.
Apr 29, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
U.S. Suspends Dollar Shipments and Security Cooperation with Iraq Over Iranian Militia Pressure
The U.S. Treasury blocked a nearly $500 million dollar cargo shipment — the second such delay since the Iran war began in late February 2025 — representing proceeds from Iraqi oil sales held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Apr 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran Drone and Missile Strike on Fujairah Oil Port and Hormuz Tanker
Iran struck the UAE port of Fujairah with drones and launched missiles intercepted by UAE air defenses, while also hitting an ADNOC-affiliated tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 27, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Iraq Political Transition Amid Militia-Driven Sovereignty Crisis
Iraq elected a new president (Nizar Amidi, PUK) and named a prime minister-designate (Ali al-Zaidi) after missing constitutional deadlines by months, while simultaneously confronting a sovereignty crisis in which Iran-aligned militias launched attacks on U.S., Gulf, and Iraqi targets from Iraqi soil.
Apr 27, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Launches 'Project Freedom' Hormuz Commercial Shipping Escort Initiative
President Trump announced a U.S. military escort program for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing it as a response to ships being 'trapped' by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.
Apr 25, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
UAE Exits OPEC, Deploys Israeli Iron Dome, Deepens Israel-US Security Integration
The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC, accepted deployment of Israeli Iron Dome batteries operated by Israeli troops on its soil, and moved to sanction Iranian financial access — a cluster of decisions that collectively reorient UAE strategic alignment away from Arab collective frameworks and toward a bilateral Israel-US security architecture.
Apr 25, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Sanctions Iran Shadow Fleet and Chinese Teapot Refinery
The U.S. Treasury designated 40 shipping firms and vessels comprising part of Iran's shadow tanker fleet, alongside Hengli Petrochemical Refinery — China's second-largest independent refinery and a major Iranian crude customer.
Apr 23, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran: Ceasefire Signaling and Strait of Hormuz Disengagement Declaration
The United States and Israel are conducting a combined military campaign described as 'systematically crushing' Iranian government capacity.
Apr 22, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC
The UAE formally announced its exit from OPEC, effective next month, citing strategic misalignment with the cartel's quota regime and a desire to accelerate independent energy production.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Suspends Security Cooperation With Iraq
The United States halted security cooperation and funding for Iraq's security services after drone and militia attacks on U.S. interests in Baghdad and northern Iraq.
Apr 21, 2025
De-escalating
Military
United States Threatens and Expands Strikes on Iranian Civilian Infrastructure
The United States, under President Trump, publicly threatened systematic attacks on Iranian power plants, bridges, desalination facilities, and oil infrastructure, while already conducting strikes including the destruction of a major bridge near Tehran.
Apr 20, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Precision Strike Campaign Against Iran
The United States conducted a large-scale precision strike campaign against Iran, expending over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles alongside next-generation PrSM munitions.
Apr 20, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran War Escalation and Forever War Risk Assessment
An active U.S.-Iran military conflict is underway, involving over 16,000 U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, Iranian regional strikes, and Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Political
Iran Leadership Consolidation Under Wartime Pressure
Reporting from multiple trips to Tehran indicates that Iran's leadership has consolidated rather than fractured under sustained U.S. and Israeli military pressure and prolonged economic strain.
Apr 20, 2025
Mixed
Political
Killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and Subsequent Cease-Fire
The article posits a scenario in which Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed, triggering violent protests at U.S. diplomatic missions in Karachi and Baghdad and mass demonstrations across the Muslim world.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Political
Iran's Post-War Leadership Consolidation Under Mojtaba Khamenei
Following the death of Ali Khamenei and a wartime succession, Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority through networked coordination among the IRGC, clerical institutions, maddahan networks, and media actors rather than through a visible hierarchical structure.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Triggers Domestic Coalition Fracture
Approximately two months into a U.S. war against Iran, domestic polling shows roughly two-thirds of Americans oppose the conflict, with only 25% calling it worth the cost.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Gulf State Internal Crackdowns Amid U.S.-Israeli War on Iran
The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has triggered cascading domestic security responses across GCC states, including mass arrests for filming strike damage, suppression of social media dissent, and sectarian-coded crackdowns in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Structural Gulf Oil Production Degradation
A U.S.-Iran tanker war has effectively closed the Persian Gulf to oil traffic, causing Gulf producers to shut in fields under emergency conditions that have damaged wells, depleted reservoir pressure, and dispersed tanker fleets globally.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Saudi Arabia Strategic Paralysis During U.S.-Israel-Iran War
Saudi Arabia has adopted a posture of strategic ambiguity during the ongoing U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury), absorbing Iranian and Iraqi proxy attacks while declining to retaliate, publicly denying support for the war despite reported private lobbying of Trump to attack Iran, and cutting Vision 2030 project timelines due to economic pressure.
Apr 20, 2025
Mixed
Political
IRGC Assumes Collective Decision-Making Authority Under Incapacitated Mojtaba Khamenei
Following the death of Ali Khamenei and the wounding of his successor Mojtaba in a February 28 airstrike, effective control over Iran's security, diplomatic, and military decisions has shifted to a collective of IRGC generals.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Political
IRGC-Aligned Leadership Consolidation Under Zolghadr in Post-Conflict Iran
The emergence of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as a central figure in Iran's postwar leadership structure signals a consolidation of IRGC institutional power over the Islamic Republic's governing apparatus.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Military
US Special Operations Rescue of Downed Airman in Iran
The United States successfully recovered a downed airman inside Iranian territory after a two-day race with Iranian forces to secure him.
Apr 18, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Gulf Arab States Express Alarm Over U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Security Gaps
Arab Gulf states, led primarily by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have signaled deep concern that ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations will produce a deal that constrains Iran's nuclear program without addressing its ballistic missile capabilities or proxy network sponsorship.
Apr 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz on Pre-Approved Route Amid Cease-Fire
Iran's decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz only for pre-approved shipping routes preserves its ability to selectively constrain maritime traffic rather than relinquishing leverage.
Apr 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz Under Ongoing US Port Blockade
Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, while the United States kept its naval blockade on Iranian ports in place pending a political deal.
Apr 18, 2025
Mixed
Military
US F-15E Shot Down Over Iran, A-10 Warthog Downed Near Strait of Hormuz
Two U.S. military aircraft were lost in the Iran-Hormuz theater: an Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iran and an A-10 Warthog went down near the Strait of Hormuz, with its pilot rescued.
Apr 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Attack on Iran Triggers Hormuz Energy Shock
The article frames the U.S. decision to attack Iran as a coercive move that has contributed to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a resulting global energy crisis.
Apr 16, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Disrupts Global Oil Markets
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz constrains a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil flows, raising prices worldwide.
Apr 16, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israel War Against Iran: Multi-Front Regional Escalation
Following the US-Israeli assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei through coordinated airstrikes, a regional war has erupted spanning Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and multiple Gulf states.
Apr 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
IRGC Issues Threat Against US Corporate Infrastructure in the Gulf
The IRGC publicly listed 18 US technology and manufacturing companies operating in the Gulf — including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, and Boeing — threatening strikes against them in retaliation for continued US military operations against Iran.
Apr 15, 2025
Stable
Other
Assessment of Iran's Regional Influence Network Under Conflict Pressure
The source is an analytical discussion rather than a report of a discrete operational event.
Apr 15, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Israel-Iran Cease-fire Frays Over Hormuz, Lebanon, and Negotiation Terms
A publicly announced cease-fire between the United States, Israel, and Iran appears unstable because the parties dispute whether it covers Lebanon, how and when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and what terms govern future negotiations.
Apr 14, 2025
De-escalating
Military
United States Imposes Naval Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
The United States imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz during its war with Iran, targeting the maritime chokepoint through which most Iranian oil exports and key imports transit.
Apr 12, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iraqi PMF Convoy Enters Iran Amid Active US-Israel Military Campaign
A convoy of Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) entered Iran via the Shalamcheh border crossing, officially framed as a humanitarian aid mission carrying 70 tonnes of food and medical supplies.
Apr 9, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli Campaign Targets Iran-Aligned Networks in Iraq
The United States and Israel expanded strikes from retaliation to a broader campaign aimed at decapitating and dismantling Iran-aligned armed networks in Iraq.
Apr 8, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Negotiation Phase
Following joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in late February 2025 that destroyed much of Iran's military capacity and killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran's successor regime under Mojtaba Khamenei closed the Strait of Hormuz and triggered a global energy crisis.
Apr 8, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Kataib Hezbollah Frees U.S. Journalist After Prisoner Exchange
Kataib Hezbollah released American journalist Shelly Kittleson after a week in captivity, reportedly in exchange for the release of detained militia members.
Apr 7, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Zarif Publishes Bilateral Reset Proposal Excluding Gulf States
Former Iranian FM Mohammad Javad Zarif published a Foreign Affairs essay proposing a U.S.-Iran bilateral deal: enrichment capped below 3.67%, IAEA Additional Protocol ratification, full material transfer to a multilateral consortium, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and a bilateral nonaggression pact.
Apr 7, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran-Aligned Militia Drone Attack on Syrian Bases Near Iraqi Border
Unidentified actors launched a large-scale drone attack on multiple Syrian military bases near the Iraqi border, with Syria claiming most UAVs were intercepted.
Apr 6, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Trump Threatens Expanded U.S. Bombing of Iran
The U.S. president issued an explicit deadline-backed threat to expand bombing across Iranian critical infrastructure unless Tehran accepts U.S. terms.
Apr 6, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Regional Preparation for Potential US Ground Incursion into Iran
The article describes a shift in regional threat calculations as US options toward Iran reportedly expand from airstrikes to possible covert raids or limited ground operations.
Apr 6, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran Sustains Attritional Resistance and Restricts Strait of Hormuz Traffic
Iran retained sufficient coercive capacity after more than a month of US-Israeli operations to continue retaliatory strikes and constrain maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 6, 2025
Mixed
Military
US Conducts Deep Recovery Mission in Iran After F-15 Shootdown
After a US F-15E was shot down over southern Iran, the United States mounted a major night-time personnel recovery operation involving special forces, aircraft, helicopters, and intelligence support to extract a missing crew member from hostile territory.
Apr 5, 2025
Escalating
Military
United States Expands Iran Air Campaign to Civilian Infrastructure Targets
The United States struck a bridge west of Tehran and signaled possible follow-on attacks against Iran's power infrastructure and other civilian-adjacent facilities.
Apr 4, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Downs US Aircraft and Hunts Missing Pilot
Iranian fire downed a US F-15E over Iran and hit an A-10 that later crashed in Kuwait, while Iranian forces searched for a missing US pilot in southwestern Iran.
Apr 4, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Shoots Down U.S. Warplane Over Iranian Territory
Iranian forces reportedly shot down a U.S. F-15E over Iranian territory, with one crew member rescued and another missing, marking the first confirmed U.S. aircraft loss inside Iran during the war.
Apr 4, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Shoots Down US F-15 Over Central Iran
Iran claims it destroyed a US F-15 in central Iranian airspace, forcing a live recovery contest over the crew between Iranian and US forces.
Apr 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Iran-Israel Infrastructure War Escalation with Hormuz Blockade
The US-Israeli-Iran war has escalated into systematic mutual infrastructure strikes targeting steel plants, bridges, power grids, refineries, and desalination complexes across the region.
Apr 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
IRGC Claims Downing of US F-35 Launched from RAF Lakenheath
Iran's IRGC claimed its air defenses shot down a US F-35 over central Iran, identifying the aircraft by tail code as belonging to the 493rd Fighter Squadron based at RAF Lakenheath, Suffolk.
Apr 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israel-Iran War: Infrastructure Targeting Phase and Strait of Hormuz Blockade
US and Israeli forces have degraded approximately 70 percent of Iran's steel production capacity and struck its tallest bridge, while Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas transit.
Apr 3, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Sustains Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Primary Coercive Lever
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively blocked commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, using mine deployment, vessel attacks, and passage fee demands.
Apr 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Fighter Jet Shot Down Over Iran
An American fighter aircraft was shot down over Iranian territory, constituting the first such known loss since the conflict began.
Apr 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
F-15E Strike Eagle Downed Over Iran in First US Combat Aircraft Loss to Hostile Fire
An F-15E Strike Eagle — a two-seat aircraft — was shot down over Iran, marking the first confirmed loss of a US warplane to hostile fire in the US-Iran war that began February 28.
Apr 2, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Deliberates Military Extraction of Iran's HEU Stockpile Post-12-Day War
Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2024, an estimated 440kg of 60%-enriched uranium remains partially accessible at Isfahan and possibly Natanz.
Apr 2, 2025
Mixed
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Historic Energy Supply Disruption
Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure and restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping have removed over 12 million barrels of oil from global supply since the start of a U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Strait of Hormuz Blockade Drives Global Energy Shock
The article describes a prolonged Iran-linked disruption of the Strait of Hormuz that is transmitting energy, fertilizer, and shipping shocks across import-dependent economies.
Apr 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
US Third Carrier Group and Amphibious Forces Deployed to Gulf Amid Operation Epic Fury
The United States has deployed a third aircraft carrier (USS George HW Bush), two Amphibious Ready Groups, and two Marine Expeditionary Units (~4,700 Marines) to the Middle East, supplementing 50,000 already-stationed troops during the second month of 'Operation Epic Fury.' The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG is conducting daily combat sorties against Iranian targets.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War
One month into an active US war with Iran, President Trump is delivering a nationally televised address attempting to consolidate domestic political support for the conflict.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Trump Signals Iran War Exit While Hormuz Remains Closed
Trump announced a 2-3 week exit timeline from the Iran war, claiming nuclear objectives achieved and regime change accomplished, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, a third carrier strike group deploys, and Iran's foreign minister denies meaningful negotiations.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Alliance
European Allies Refuse US Military Assistance Requests for Iran War
European NATO members are declining US requests to redeploy Patriot air defense batteries to the Middle East in support of ongoing US-Israel military operations against Iran.
Apr 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran-U.S. War Escalation: Hormuz Blockade and IRGC Corporate Target Threats
Iran's IRGC announced imminent strikes against 17 major U.S. corporations operating in the Middle East, including defense contractors and tech firms, in retaliation for U.S. military operations that have struck over 11,000 targets inside Iran.
Apr 1, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
Gulf States Lobby Trump to Escalate and Extend US-Israeli War Against Iran
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are privately urging the Trump administration not to end the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran until Iranian leadership is fundamentally altered or its military capabilities — including nuclear program, ballistic missiles, proxy networks, and Hormuz control — are neutralized.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month with Ground Invasion Under Consideration
A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, has entered its second month with no resolution. Iran has sustained retaliatory strikes on U.S.
Mar 31, 2025
De-escalating
Military
IRGC Launches Child Recruitment Campaign Amid US-Israel War
The IRGC formally announced a recruitment drive targeting Iranians aged 12 and above as volunteer fighters, operationalizing children into checkpoints, patrols, and intelligence tasks during active US-Israeli strike campaigns.
Mar 31, 2025
Mixed
Military
US Fires 850+ Tomahawk Missiles at Iran in Four-Week Campaign
The United States fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran within four weeks, with the bulk expended in the opening days of the operation. This volume substantially exceeds all prior post-Cold War regional operations combined.
Mar 30, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Fourth Strike Near Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant
Repeated strikes near Bushehr show the war has moved beyond military assets into strategic energy and nuclear-adjacent infrastructure, increasing pressure on Iran's industrial base and deterrent posture.
Mar 30, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Iran Conflict: Military Buildup, Negotiation Stall, and Strait of Hormuz Contingency Planning
The United States is engaged in a 10-day pause in strikes on Iran following significant degradation of Iranian military capabilities, while simultaneously building up military forces in the Middle East.
Mar 30, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Fifth Week with Multi-Theater Escalation
US-Israeli forces have conducted sustained strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, weapons development sites, educational facilities, and residential areas, killing over 2,076 Iranians including 216 children.
Mar 30, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israeli War Against Iran: Power Infrastructure Strikes and Gulf Escalation
Airstrikes knocked out electricity to parts of Tehran and surrounding regions, targeting power infrastructure.
Mar 30, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israel Military Coordination Meeting on Iran Campaign
CENTCOM chief Admiral Cooper and IDF Chief of Staff Zamir met in Israel to coordinate ongoing operations targeting Iran's military-industrial capacity, following a joint US-Israel strike campaign initiated February 28.
Mar 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
US Operation Epic Fury Against Iran Collapses; Iran Retains Hormuz Control
The US military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury, initiated 28 February 2025) has failed to achieve its stated objectives — regime change, unconditional surrender, nuclear programme destruction, and Hormuz clearance.
Mar 27, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Naval Blockade Forces Iranian Oil Storage Saturation
A U.S. naval blockade, approximately five weeks in duration, has effectively halted Iranian crude oil exports, redirecting production into onshore tank farms and floating storage vessels at an accelerating rate.
Mar 26, 2025
De-escalating
Military
IRGC Initiates Child Recruitment Drive Amid Wartime Manpower Shortage
Iran's IRGC formally announced recruitment of volunteers from age 12 into operational, security, intelligence patrol, and logistics roles following the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel on 28 February 2025.
Mar 25, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
Russia Launches Fertiliser Diplomacy Amid Hormuz Disruption
Russia signaled readiness to redirect fertiliser exports to global south markets as Hormuz disruption raised fears of supply shocks, while linking access to support for Russian-led groupings and using the crisis to press for sanctions relief in the West.
Mar 25, 2025
Escalating
Military
Kidnapping of American Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad
Freelance American journalist Shelly Renee Kittleson was abducted from a Baghdad street by multiple individuals, with U.S. officials attributing responsibility to Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-linked Iraqi militia.
Mar 19, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran War Munitions Depletion Reaches Critical Threshold
Within the first 16 days of active US-Iran hostilities, the United States expended approximately 11,294 munitions at an estimated cost of $26 billion, including roughly 46% of its ATACMS inventory and 402 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors.
Mar 18, 2025
Mixed
Military
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapse and Ras Laffan LNG Facility Attack
An Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility on March 18, 2025, combined with the broader collapse of Strait of Hormuz traffic to 5% of normal flows, has created the largest disruption to global oil and LNG supplies in modern history.
Mar 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
UK Deploys Additional Air Defence Systems to Gulf States
The UK is deploying Sky Sabre missile defence to Saudi Arabia, Lightweight Multirole Missile launchers to Bahrain, Rapid Sentry systems to Kuwait, and extending Typhoon jet deployments in Qatar.
Mar 18, 2025
Mixed
Military
US Military Buildup and Planned Limited Ground Operations Against Iran
The US has deployed approximately 7,000 additional troops to the Middle East since the start of the Iran war, with the Pentagon considering a further 10,000.
Mar 5, 2025
Escalating
Military
Kataib Hezbollah-Linked Kidnapping of US Journalist in Baghdad
American freelance journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted in Baghdad by four men in civilian clothes with suspected ties to Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-aligned Iraqi militia.
Mar 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
Israel Operates Clandestine Forward Base in Iraqi Desert, Strikes Iraqi Forces
Israel secretly established a forward operating base in western Iraq to support its air campaign against Iran, housing special forces and search-and-rescue teams with U.S. knowledge.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Operation Epic Fury: U.S. Military Campaign Against Iran
The United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran approximately two months prior to publication, at a cost the Pentagon estimates at $25–50 billion through end of April 2025.
Mar 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
UK Military Deployment to Gulf Following US-Israeli Strikes on Iran
Following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February, Iran attacked Gulf infrastructure and disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping, triggering a UK defensive military response.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
PMF Fragmentation and Intra-State Security Breakdown in Iraq
Iran-aligned factions within Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are attacking Iraqi state institutions — including the National Intelligence Service and Counter-Terrorism Service — while also targeting foreign diplomatic and military facilities and kidnapping an American journalist.
Mar 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Establishes Effective Control Over Strait of Hormuz
Iran has achieved near-total operational control of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of war with the US and Israel in late February 2025, reducing vessel transits by over 95%.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Regional War Spillover Destabilizes Iraq's Multialignment Posture
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has shattered Iraq's years-long multialignment strategy, triggering militia attacks on U.S. bases, Iranian strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan, and U.S. retaliatory strikes on PMF-affiliated infrastructure including Iraqi military sites.
Mar 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran Attacks Saudi Arabia and Gulf States During US-Iran War
Since the outbreak of hostilities, Iran has launched over 5,000 drones and missiles at Gulf Arab states including Saudi Arabia, striking oil fields, refineries, the Riyadh Diplomatic Quarter, and US military infrastructure.
Feb 28, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Activates Asymmetric Attrition Strategy via Drone Campaign and Hormuz Blockade
Following a forty-day US-Israeli bombing campaign, Iran responded by attacking Gulf energy infrastructure and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, activating a deliberate asymmetric attrition strategy rather than direct confrontation.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Political
IRGC Inner Circle Consolidates Control After Khamenei Assassination
Israel's assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 triggered a succession crisis resolved not through formal institutional channels but through the consolidation of a small IRGC-linked intelligence fraternity.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran Conflict Reshapes South Caucasus Transit and Security Architecture
U.S.-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2025 and a 12-day bombing campaign in June 2025 targeting Iranian military facilities have disrupted Iranian transit routes, elevated alternative corridors through Georgia and Azerbaijan, and created asymmetric economic and security pressures across the South Caucasus.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran Retaliatory Strikes on Gulf States Following U.S.-Israeli Attack on Iran
Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28, 2025, Iran retaliated by striking airports, seaports, oil installations, and desalination plants across Gulf Arab states and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, fully blocking exports from Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar while impeding those of Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Feb 28, 2025
Escalating
Military
US-Israeli Air Campaign Against Iran Fails to Trigger Internal Collapse
The article describes a US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran framed by its backers as a catalyst for domestic uprising.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Missile Strike on Minab Elementary School
Multiple U.S. missiles struck the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, killing an indeterminate number of children and teachers.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Israel Strikes on Iranian Medical and Public Health Infrastructure
Since February 28, US and Israeli forces have conducted repeated strikes on Iranian healthcare infrastructure, including the Pasteur Institute (a century-old vaccine and infectious disease research centre), a major pharmaceutical manufacturer, multiple hospitals, and a Red Crescent warehouse.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israeli Air Campaign Degrades Iranian Conventional Military While Asymmetric Capacity Persists
A sustained US-Israeli air campaign launched February 28 has struck over 13,000 targets in Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and much of the senior leadership, and destroying an estimated 80% of Iranian air defense systems.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iran De Facto Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Post-US-Israeli Strikes
Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran imposed a near-total de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz using missile and drone attacks on vessels, naval mining, and selective negotiated passage.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israel Military Operation Against Iran with IRGC Retaliation
The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against major Iranian cities including Tehran on February 28, triggering a 33-day near-total internet blackout across Iran.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US Military Denial of Lamerd Strike Attribution
A strike on a sports hall and residential area in Lamerd, Iran on 28 February killed approximately 15 civilians, including children, according to Iranian state media.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Disrupts Global Energy Flows and Compounds China's Economic Crisis
The United States and Israel launched coordinated missile strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering an ongoing conflict that has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iraq Subjected to Dual-Front Strikes as U.S.-Iran War Expands
Since February 28, Iraq has been struck by both U.S.-Israeli forces targeting Iran-backed militias and by Iran and its proxies targeting U.S. bases, Kurdish areas, oil infrastructure, and diplomatic missions.
Jan 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Syrian Transitional Government Offensive Against SDF Triggers IS Containment Collapse
Ahmad al Sharaa launched a military offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in January 2025, triggering Arab tribal defections and the loss of approximately 80 percent of SDF-held territory.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Post-Cold War Order Structural Dissolution
The liberal international order built after 1991 is undergoing structural dissolution across multiple dimensions simultaneously: great power rivalry between the U.S. and China has intensified, Russia's war in Ukraine has fractured European security architecture, a U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran has triggered regional conflagration, and democratic backsliding is accelerating in states previously considered stable.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Gulf States Caught Between U.S.-Iran War and Structural Security Dependence
The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has exposed the structural vulnerability of Gulf monarchies whose hosted U.S. forces have made them targets of Iranian strikes on hotels and energy infrastructure.
Jan 1, 2025
Mixed
Political
U.S.-Backed Ali Al Zaidi Emerges as Likely Iraqi Prime Minister
Ali Al Zaidi, an Iraqi businessman with limited political profile, has emerged as the frontrunner for Iraq's prime ministership with explicit backing from President Trump, who has reportedly invited him to Washington.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
Israel Establishes Military Outpost in Iraqi Desert to Support Iran Air Campaign
Israel set up a military outpost in the Iraqi desert to provide logistical and operational support for its air campaign against Iran.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Iran Reframes Strategic Victory as Regime Survival Under Military Pressure
Under sustained U.S. and Israeli military pressure, including direct strikes on nuclear facilities and command infrastructure, Iran's senior leadership has publicly redefined victory as survival and endurance rather than regional transformation or the elimination of adversaries.
Jan 1, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Indefinitely Extends U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Amid Hormuz Stalemate
President Trump indefinitely extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, citing fractured Iranian leadership, after peace talks stalled with no overlap between the two sides' demands.
Jan 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
Dual Blockade Standoff at Strait of Hormuz
Following a U.S.-Iran cease-fire, both powers are asserting competing coercive control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Basra Climate Degradation Deepens Afro-Iraqi Marginalization
The event is the cumulative intensification of climate stress and environmental degradation in Basra Governorate, especially Zubayr, under conditions of weak Iraqi state response.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Kidnapping of American Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad
American journalist Shelly Kittleson, contributing to Al-Monitor, was abducted in Baghdad by four men in civilian clothes following a car chase. The Iraqi Interior Ministry confirmed one arrest and ongoing efforts to free her. The U.S.
Apr 1, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Iran Large-Scale Drone and Missile Campaign Against Arab Neighbors
Iran launched approximately ten thousand drones and missiles against Arab neighbors in a compressed timeframe, representing a qualitative escalation beyond previous proxy-mediated coercion.
Feb 1, 2024
Mixed
Military
Iranian Strike Campaign Damages 228+ Structures at U.S. Middle East Bases
Satellite imagery analysis documents at least 228 structures or equipment items damaged or destroyed at U.S. military installations across the Middle East since October 2023, attributable to Iranian strikes or Iranian-backed proxy attacks.
Apr 25, 1980
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Iran Hostage Rescue Mission Aborted After Aircraft Failure
The United States inserted special operations forces into Iran to recover a stranded American specialist, demonstrating substantial long-range penetration capability and temporary tactical surprise.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump Pursues Simultaneous Iran End-of-War Deal and Israel-Arab Normalization
President Trump signaled intent to pursue a comprehensive end-of-war agreement with Iran alongside normalized Israel-Middle East relations, expanding U.S. diplomatic objectives beyond nuclear containment alone.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Initial Nuclear Framework: HEU Stockpile Commitment
An emerging U.S.-Iran framework reportedly includes Iran's commitment to surrender its ~970-pound stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium, a core U.S. demand.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Hajj 2024 Pilgrimage Amid Middle East Conflict
Over one million pilgrims, including tens of thousands from Iran and Iraq, converged on Mecca for the annual Hajj pilgrimage despite ongoing regional conflict.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Emergency Mediation Effort to Prevent U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran
Third-party mediators are urgently attempting to construct a framework agreement that would restart nuclear talks and forestall imminent U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Consolidates Coercive Leverage Over Strait of Hormuz After Gulf Strikes
The text describes Iran using sustained missile and drone attacks against GCC energy and technology infrastructure while pairing coercion with cease-fire terms asserting coordinated passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Continue With
All conflicts→War / Middle East
A fragile US-Iran ceasefire pauses direct strikes but leaves Iran's Iraq proxy network intact and nuclear talks deadlocked.
Escalating / Middle East
A provisional US-Iran peace outline has stalled over core definitional disputes as Hormuz remains contested and nuclear talks drag.
The US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist government, dismantling Iraq's military and state institutions and creating a power vacuum that fueled sectarian violence.
Sunni-Shia sectarian civil war intensified, killing tens of thousands; Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, emerged from the chaos as a major insurgent force.
AQI's successor organization rebranded as ISIS and exploited the Syrian civil war and Sunni grievances in Iraq to rapidly expand its ranks and territory.
ISIS seized Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, declared a caliphate spanning roughly one-third of Iraq and Syria, and routed Iraqi Security Forces, prompting a US-led coalition intervention and the formation of the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
A joint offensive by ISF, PMF, Peshmerga, and US-backed coalition forces began the grinding battle to retake Mosul, Iraq's largest city under ISIS control, finally liberating it in July 2017 after nine months of urban combat.
ISIS lost its last territorial holdout; the caliphate was declared defeated, but an estimated 1,000–2,500 ISIS cells remained active in remote desert and mountainous regions of Iraq.
The PMF was formally integrated into the Iraqi state security structure by law, but Iran-aligned factions retained operational autonomy, deepening tensions with US forces and Iraqi government authority.
ISIS remnant cells continued monthly guerrilla attacks on ISF checkpoints, villages, and infrastructure, particularly in Diyala, Kirkuk, and Anbar provinces, killing hundreds annually and sustaining a low-grade insurgency.
Proxy Network
Kata'ib Hezbollah serves as the primary former IRGC-directed strike node against US and Western targets.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq extends Iranian coercive reach into Iraqi security institutions, formal armed forces, and parliamentary political networks.
Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba functions as a forward-deployed escalation node capable of cross-border operations into Syria and against Gulf targets.
Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada received diverted Iraqi state oil revenue channeled through Maarij and was sanctioned by US Treasury alongside affiliated financial.
HAYI (front group) provides operational deniability for IRGC-directed attacks on Jewish institutions and American financial targets across the US and UK.
Battle Deaths