Iraq
Iraq's wartime spillover has stabilized, but only at near-floor weakness.
PF Score
13
▼2Authority
18
Reach
10
Under construction
Iraq's wartime spillover has stabilized, but only at near-floor weakness. It now sits just above Hamas and below Lebanon or Libya because Baghdad still retains a recognized state shell, yet militias and external strikes continue to outrun the government's ability to command events.
Militia impunity inside Baghdad cripples sovereign command.
External relevance is mostly spillover, not projection.
Mohammed Al-Sudani
Mohammed al-Sudani has served as Iraq's Prime Minister since October 2022.
Iran is signaling that control over the Strait of Hormuz is not just a threat posture but a selectively exercisable instrument of regional influence.
Iran's deployment of Iraqi PMF fighters into Khuzestan for domestic suppression is a structural signal, not a tactical measure: the IRGC and Basij have been sufficiently degraded by the ongoing US-Israel military campaign that the regime can no longer sustain internal coercive control without foreign proxy forces.
Iraq's state authority is in accelerating structural collapse as Iran-aligned PMF factions simultaneously target Iraqi state institutions, foreign interests, and civilian infrastructure — all while remaining formally embedded within Iraq's own security apparatus.