Iran
Iran is weaker but not cornered. Reach now depends less on expeditionary force than on Hormuz denial, which still lets Tehran shape costs beyond its borders.
PF Score
44
▲1Authority
40
Reach
49
Under construction
Hormuz coercion and surviving axis coordination keep Iran edging up. It now sits clearly above Pakistan on external effect and near, but still below, its older baseline because wartime attrition has not broken the regime's ability to impose regional costs or bargain from pain.
IRGC wartime control preserves a damaged but functioning state
Hormuz leverage and Houthi coordination sustain regional influence
Abbas Aragchi
Iran's Foreign Minister
Kazem Gharibabadi
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs
Esmail Qaani
commander of the IRGC Quds Force
Iran's reported downing of two U.S. warplanes materially weakens the credibility of U.S. claims that Tehran has been militarily broken and that the air campaign is nearing uncontested dominance.
US strikes on Iran during active nuclear negotiations widen the gap between Washington's claimed diplomatic leadership and its exercised coercive behavior.
The United States is converting strategic munitions stockpiles into immediate coercive power against Iran, increasing near-term strike dominance but exposing a real inventory constraint in its global posture.