All Conflicts
EscalatedGlobalProxy War2023–presentReviewed Apr 5

Global Maritime Chokepoints

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US-Iran maritime war keeps straining global shipping as Hormuz remains under Iranian coercive control

Escalation Trace

US-Iran maritime war keeps straining global shipping as Hormuz remains under Iranian coercive

13 phases · 231 events
Apr 2025Apr 2026

Theater

Focus Region

Global

Geo-Linked Events

213

1995

Iran begins developing anti-ship missile capabilities and repeatedly threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, establishing the waterway as a persistent geopolitical pressure point tied to nuclear and sanctions disputes.

2004

Piracy and irregular maritime attacks in the Strait of Malacca peak at over 37 incidents annually, prompting a trilateral patrol agreement between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore that partially stabilizes the corridor but does not resolve underlying South China Sea territorial competition.

2019

A series of tanker attacks and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, attributed to Iran, push global oil markets into volatility and trigger a US-led maritime security coalition, Operation Sentinel, highlighting how chokepoint threats can rapidly escalate into multinational standoffs.

2023

Following the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Houthi forces in Yemen begin launching drones and missiles at commercial vessels in the Red Sea, declaring the campaign a blockade against Israel-linked shipping in solidarity with Gaza.

2024

Houthi attacks disrupt an estimated 15–20% of global container shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, forcing major carriers including Maersk and MSC to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 10–14 days and significant costs per voyage.

 

The United States and United Kingdom launch Operation Prosperity Guardian and conduct direct airstrikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure inside Yemen, marking the first sustained Western military campaign against a proxy force in defense of commercial sea lanes.

 

China and Russia decline to join Western maritime coalitions, with Chinese naval vessels maintaining independent Red Sea transits largely unmolested by Houthis, reinforcing perceptions that both powers benefit strategically from prolonged Western resource expenditure and shipping disruption.

Iran provides weapons, targeting intelligence, and operational guidance to Houthis; US leads Operation Prosperity Guardian coalition

Houthis operating as Iran's maritime proxy; broader Iran-aligned axis threatening Strait of Hormuz; PLAN monitoring Malacca as separate vector

Apr 17, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran War: Malley Disputes Trump's Strategic Success Claims

Former US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley publicly challenged Trump's narrative that the US-Iran war achieved regime change, nuclear dismantlement, and strategic success.

Apr 7, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran Ceasefire Signaling Tied to Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Trump administration signals readiness for a ceasefire in the Iran war contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with VP Vance delivering an ultimatum through intermediaries threatening attacks on key Iranian infrastructure.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Reported Ukrainian Drone Strike on Kstovo Lukoil Refinery

A reported Ukrainian long-range drone strike targeted the Lukoil refinery in Kstovo, a major Russian oil-processing site deep inside Russia.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Ukraine Drone Strike on Lukoil Kstovo Refinery

A reported Ukrainian drone strike targeted the Lukoil refinery in Kstovo, a major Russian oil-processing site roughly 800 kilometers from Ukraine.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Claim Coordinated Strike with Iran and Hezbollah on Israel

The Houthis publicly claimed a joint strike with Iranian state forces and Hezbollah against targets in Israel, including Ben Gurion Airport, using a ballistic missile and drones.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Downs Two U.S. Warplanes Amid Ongoing Strait of Hormuz Standoff

Iran's reported downing of two American warplanes demonstrates that U.S. air operations over Iran remain contested despite sustained strikes on Iranian leadership, naval assets, and missile infrastructure.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

United States Launches Operation Epic Fury During Iran Nuclear Talks

The United States launched a new round of strikes against Iran while nuclear negotiations were still underway, extending a pattern established by the earlier 2025 attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US Conducts Second Combat Search-and-Rescue Operation Inside Iran

US forces recovered a second downed airman from inside Iranian territory, reportedly conducting strikes during the rescue mission. The operation demonstrates the United States' ability to project force and extract personnel behind enemy lines despite active Iranian opposition.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Iran Strikes Gulf Civilian Infrastructure

Iran launched drone and missile attacks against infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, with reported damage at civilian and industrial sites including the Borouge petrochemicals plant in Ruwais.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Iranian Missile Campaign Strains Gulf and Allied Interceptor Stockpiles

Iran's sustained use of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones against Gulf states, Israel, and U.S. positions has imposed heavy interceptor expenditure on the United States and its partners.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iranian Drone Strikes Damage Kuwaiti Desalination and Power Infrastructure

Iranian drone attacks damaged two Kuwaiti power and desalination plants, disrupted generating units, and hit additional civilian and energy facilities across the Gulf.

Apr 5, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Iranian Missile and Drone Strikes Push UAE-Israel Security Alignment

Iran's large-scale missile and drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates have increased the immediate security value of Israeli coordination for Abu Dhabi. The event indicates a shift from normalization as diplomatic diversification toward normalization as active security balancing against Iran.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Trump Threatens Strategic Infrastructure Strikes on Iran Over Strait of Hormuz

The United States, through President Trump, threatened large-scale strikes on Iran's power plants and bridges unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz by a fixed deadline.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Explosion Targets Christians for Israel Center in Nijkerk

An explosive device was placed outside the Christians for Israel site in Nijkerk, causing limited physical damage but signaling coercive reach against pro-Israeli civil targets in Europe.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US Intelligence Assessment: Iran Retains ~50% Strike Capability After 34 Days of US-Israeli Campaign

A US intelligence assessment assesses Iran retains approximately half its missile launchers and suicide drone stockpiles after over a month of intensive US-Israeli strikes.

Apr 4, 2026Diplomatic exchangeWidening

US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations Collapse Over Incompatible Demands

Active ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran have broken down, with Iran refusing to engage US officials through the Pakistan-led mediator committee and dismissing US terms as unacceptable.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft in Active Conflict Theater

Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft on April 4, 2026 — an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iranian territory and an A-10 over the Persian Gulf — marking the first loss of U.S. aircraft in the conflict. One crew member was rescued, one remained missing.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Shoots Down U.S. F-15E Over Khuzestan

Iranian air defenses reportedly downed a U.S. F-15E operating over Khuzestan, directly contesting U.S. claims of air superiority.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Iran Resists U.S. Coercive Air Campaign Despite Sustained Strikes

After five weeks of U.S.-led war against Iran, Tehran has not accepted U.S. demands despite more than 12,000 strikes and the killing of senior leaders. Iran's continued resistance, including downing a U.S.

Apr 4, 2026Legal changeNarrowing

Iran Advances Strait Security Arrangements Bill for Hormuz Control

Iran is advancing legislation that would codify expanded administrative and financial control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including navigation safety, toll-related arrangements, and sovereignty enforcement.

Apr 4, 2026Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports Under Temporary U.S. Sanctions Relief

India's refiners resumed purchases of Iranian crude and LPG after a multi-year halt, enabled by temporary U.S. sanctions relief and acute supply disruption in the Gulf. The move restores a blocked export outlet for Iran while reducing India's vulnerability to chokepoint disruption at Hormuz.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Strikes on Bushehr Nuclear Plant and Iranian Petrochemical Facilities

US-Israeli strikes reportedly hit Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant multiple times and also targeted petrochemical facilities, expanding the campaign from military-nuclear containment into economically significant infrastructure.

Apr 4, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Renews Threat to Withdraw United States from NATO

President Trump publicly questioned NATO's value and said he was considering U.S. withdrawal after allies declined to support U.S. efforts tied to the Strait of Hormuz and Operation Epic Fury.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Endures U.S.-Israeli Air Campaign and Seeks Negotiated Off-Ramp

The article describes an ongoing U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran that, by the author's account, has failed to topple the Islamic Republic or sever leadership continuity.

Apr 4, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

United Kingdom Expands U.S. Access to British Bases for Strikes on Iran

The United Kingdom moved from restricting U.S. use of British bases for early strikes on Iran to allowing operations framed first as defensive and later as necessary to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The likely launch of a downed U.S.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Claims Downing of US Aircraft and Expands Regional Retaliation

The reported event indicates a sharp escalation in direct Iran-US confrontation, with Iran claiming it downed a US A-10 in the Gulf while also announcing attacks on a commercial ship in Bahrain allegedly linked to Israel.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Grants Iraq Exemption From Strait of Hormuz Transit Restrictions

Iran signaled that any transit restrictions it imposes in the Strait of Hormuz would not apply to Iraq, implying Tehran believes it can selectively regulate passage through the waterway. This is a coercive demonstration of exercised maritime influence rather than a purely rhetorical claim.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Strikes Sustain Air Superiority and Target Iran's Reconstitution Pathways

US and Israeli forces continued nationwide strikes in Iran while targeting air defenses, missile-supporting petrochemical infrastructure, state broadcasting, and the Shalamcheh border crossing.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US and Israel Issue Hormuz Ultimatum to Iran

The United States and Israel escalated coercive pressure on Iran by publicly demanding that Tehran open the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Israel escalated coercive pressure on Iran by threatening attacks on its energy infrastructure unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Air Defenses Down US A-10 Near Strait of Hormuz

Iranian air defenses reportedly shot down a US A-10 near the Strait of Hormuz and also hit US helicopters involved in the rescue effort.

Apr 3, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK Convenes 35-Nation Coalition to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Britain is hosting a virtual 35-nation diplomatic meeting led by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper to coordinate diplomatic, political, and eventual military measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed following the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Energy Supply Shock

An ongoing war involving Iran has effectively halted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing transit from approximately 20 million barrels per day to near zero and triggering acute energy shortages across Asia and Africa.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Escalation Against Iranian Infrastructure; Hormuz Coalition Talks Yield No Breakthrough

US and Israeli forces struck multiple high-value Iranian targets including the Pasteur Institute, the B1 bridge in Karaj, and Iran's two largest steel plants, as Trump publicly framed these as coercive leverage to force a negotiated settlement.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-Israel Missile Exchange and U.S. Infrastructure Threat Escalation

Iran launched a new missile salvo against Israel on April 3, 2026, with Israeli air defenses activated in response. Simultaneously, U.S. President Trump publicly warned that U.S. forces had yet to begin destroying Iran's remaining infrastructure, naming bridges and energy assets as targets.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Ukraine Establishes Covert Military Foothold in Western Libya

Reporting indicates Ukraine has deployed personnel to western Libya in coordination with the Tripoli-based government, gaining access to bases in Misrata and near Mellitah for drone operations.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft

Iranian fire brought down two U.S. military fixed-wing aircraft roughly one month into the war, with two pilots rescued and one still missing.

Apr 2, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Triggering Global Oil Supply Shock

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, removing up to 16 million barrels per day from global petroleum supply — approximately 15% of pre-war demand. Brent crude rose to $118.35, with projections reaching $146–$200 depending on closure duration, while Dubai crude already exceeded $150.

Apr 2, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Claims Iranian Ceasefire Request Amid Ongoing US-Iran War (Operation Epic Fury)

Trump publicly asserted Iran requested a ceasefire while conditioning US acceptance on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely blocked since the war began February 28, 2026. Tehran denied the claim.

Apr 2, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump National Address on Iran Campaign, Hormuz Closure, and Regime Change

President Trump addressed the nation following the February 28 joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian cities that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and over 200 civilians.

Apr 2, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Iran Direct War Escalation: Trump Stone Ages Threat and Iranian Missile Strike on Tel Aviv

More than one month into direct U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran, Trump publicly escalated rhetoric, threatening to destroy Iran's power grid and bring the country 'back to the Stone Ages.' Iran responded with immediate missile strikes on Tel Aviv and threatened broader retaliatory operations.

Apr 1, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

NATO Allies Refuse US Basing and Overflight for Iran War Operations

Multiple NATO members — Spain, Italy, France, and Poland — have refused US military requests for overflight rights, basing access, and Patriot air defence redeployments in support of US-Israeli operations against Iran.

Apr 1, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

China Endorses Pakistan-Led Five-Point Diplomatic Framework to End US-Israeli War on Iran

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing and secured China's endorsement of a five-point peace framework calling for immediate cessation of hostilities, US-Iran talks, Strait of Hormuz security guarantees, and restraint from all parties.

Apr 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Address on US-Iran War: Alliance Rationale and Escalation Signal

Trump's nationally televised address on Day 32 of the US-Iran war confirms the conflict was initiated primarily to serve Israeli and Gulf partner interests rather than direct US strategic necessity.

Apr 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

UK Deploys Rapid Sentry Air Defence to Kuwait Amid Iranian Drone Strikes

Iran-attributed drone strikes hit Kuwaiti critical infrastructure — a power and desalination plant and the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery — prompting the UK to deploy the Rapid Sentry short-range air defence system to Kuwait.

Apr 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Ultimatum Threatens Strikes on Iranian Infrastructure Over Hormuz Closure

The US president publicly threatened major strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by a new deadline. The threat signals a shift toward coercing Iranian behavior through prospective attacks on state infrastructure rather than only military targets.

Mar 31, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

G7 Emergency Energy Coordination Amid Iran War Disruption

G7 finance and energy ministers convened an emergency teleconference, issuing a joint statement pledging 'all necessary measures' to stabilize energy markets disrupted by the war in Iran. The IEA's 32 members had already agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran: Strategic Assessment

An ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran has killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, degraded Iranian missile stocks and production infrastructure, and prompted a US troop buildup aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Urges Houthi Reactivation of Red Sea Shipping Campaign

Tehran is directing the Houthis to prepare a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping as Iran simultaneously weaponizes the Strait of Hormuz during its second month of war with the US and Israel.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

UK Expands U.S. Bomber Access at RAF Fairford for Iran Campaign

Nearly two dozen U.S. bombers — over a dozen B-1s and approximately six B-52s — are operating from RAF Fairford in southern England, conducting strikes on Iranian missile infrastructure and Hormuz-related targets.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Oil Tanker Near Dubai Amid Ongoing US-Israel Campaign

Iran attacked the fully laden Kuwaiti crude carrier Al-Salmi near Dubai, marking one of the most significant vessel strikes since the US-Israel bombing campaign began over a month ago.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Pressures Houthis to Prepare Renewed Red Sea Shipping Campaign

Iran is actively pushing the Houthis to prepare a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping as a contingency response to further US escalation in its war with Iran.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Regional Iran War Spillover into Iraq

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has drawn Iraq into active conflict despite Baghdad's sustained neutrality effort. Pro-Iranian PMF factions have launched hundreds of drone and rocket attacks on U.S. bases and the Baghdad embassy; the U.S. has struck PMF infrastructure and commanders in Iraq.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran War: Hormuz Closure and Trump's Escalation-Exit Ambiguity

A US-Israeli air campaign against Iran, ongoing since February 28, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, cutting roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supply. Iran continues missile strikes on Gulf states and Israel, including a strike on a Kuwaiti tanker near Dubai.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals US Military Exit from Iran Within 2-3 Weeks

President Trump publicly declared US military objectives in Iran largely achieved — specifically nuclear capability denial and effective regime change — and indicated a withdrawal within two to three weeks regardless of a formal deal.

Mar 31, 2026Information-cyberNarrowing

Netanyahu Passover Address Claims Systematic Defeat of Iran's Axis

Netanyahu delivered a televised national address framing the joint Israel-U.S. military campaign as having successfully dismantled Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capability, proxy network, and senior leadership.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

IRGC Issues Retaliatory Threat Against U.S. Tech Firms Following Leadership Assassinations

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps publicly threatened to destroy infrastructure belonging to 18 U.S. technology companies — including Apple, Google, and Meta — in retaliation for continued targeted assassinations of Iranian leaders, with a deadline of April 1, 2026.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israeli Combined Force Degrades Iranian Missile, Command, and Proxy Infrastructure

The US-Israeli combined force has struck over 20 Iranian missile bases, causing severe damage to four major production sites (Khojir, Shahroud, Parchin, Hakimiyeh) and eliminating local IRGC commanders, reducing Iran's missile salvo rate to its lowest since the war's start.

Mar 31, 2026Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Trump Signals U.S. Will Not Guarantee Hormuz Reopening

President Trump publicly indicated that the United States would not automatically bear the burden of reopening the Strait of Hormuz after Iran's closure, emphasizing U.S. energy self-sufficiency and urging import-dependent states to secure supplies elsewhere.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Escalatory Phase

One month into coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iran, the conflict has entered a mutual attrition phase.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran — One-Month Assessment

One month into a joint U.S.-Israeli military assault on Iran, significant tactical damage has been inflicted — including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, destruction of Iran's air force and navy, and degradation of its missile and nuclear programs — yet Iran's regime has survived, maintained Hormuz disruption, and imposed severe global economic costs.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israeli War on Iran Spreads: Multi-Front Escalation with Houthi Entry and Diplomacy Overtures

After four weeks of intense US-Israeli bombardment, Iran continues retaliatory missile strikes on Israel while the Houthis have entered the conflict by firing missiles and drones at Israel, threatening to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in addition to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 30, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

White House Signals Gulf War Cost-Sharing Demand

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated Trump is likely to formally ask Gulf states — including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait — to financially contribute to the US-Israel war against Iran, analogous to Gulf War-era burden-sharing.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Iran War: Repeated Deadline Extensions and Contradictory Negotiation Signals

The U.S. has repeatedly extended ultimatums to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — moving deadlines from March 21 to March 23, March 27, and now April 6 — while simultaneously claiming negotiating progress with Iranian parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Announces Expanded Iran Strike Target List Including Civilian Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island export terminal, and desalination facilities if nuclear diplomacy fails.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran War Escalation: Hormuz Blockade, Missile Exchanges, and Breakdown of Peace Proposals

A month-old US-Israeli war against Iran has escalated sharply, with Iran maintaining an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, firing missile salvos at Israel, and publicly rejecting US peace proposals as 'unrealistic.' Israel is conducting missile strikes on Tehran military infrastructure and Hezbollah positions in Beirut.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Escalates Amid Trump Mixed Messaging

The United States and Israel have been conducting active military operations against Iran and Lebanon for approximately one month, producing thousands of casualties.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Israeli War on Iran Triggers Chinese Strategic Reassessment

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has escalated into a regional conflict, threatening Strait of Hormuz transit and disrupting global energy markets.

Mar 29, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Sustains Multi-Theater Strike Campaign Amid U.S.-Israeli Military Pressure

Iran has continued launching ballistic missiles and Shahed drones against Israel, U.S. military installations in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf state infrastructure despite a months-long U.S.-Israeli air campaign.

Mar 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Houthis Launch Ballistic Missile at Israel, Enter Iran-Israel War

The Houthis fired a ballistic missile targeting Israeli military sites on March 28, 2026, intercepted by Israeli air defenses with no casualties reported. The attack marked the group's formal entry into the broader U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran that began in late February 2026.

Mar 28, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthis Launch Initial Missile Attack on Israel, Enter Iran War

The Houthis fired an ineffective missile strike on southern Israel, marking their formal entry into the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran after weeks of inaction.

Mar 28, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Launch Ballistic Missiles at Southern Israel, Enter Iran-Led Regional War

On March 28, 2026, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) launched two ballistic missiles at southern Israel, both intercepted, formally entering the active theater of Iran's regional war against the US and Israel.

Mar 27, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

GCC Fractures Over Iran War Response as U.S. Troop Buildup Accelerates

An active Iranian missile-and-drone campaign against Gulf states — centered on UAE civilian infrastructure, Strait of Hormuz blockade, and attacks on Bahrain and Qatar — has exposed fundamental strategic divergence within the GCC.

Mar 27, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Abandons Strait of Hormuz Ultimatum to Iran

Trump issued a public 48-hour ultimatum threatening to obliterate Iranian power infrastructure if Iran did not fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran refused, continued its attacks, and kept the strait closed.

Mar 27, 2026Legal changeMixed

Iran Formalizes Strait of Hormuz Toll Regime and De Facto Blockade

Iran's Parliament is advancing legislation to institutionalize fees for Strait of Hormuz transit, converting an informal IRGC-enforced clearance system into a formal sovereignty claim over a passage treated under international law as an international waterway.

Mar 27, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

European-Led Multilateral Naval Escort Planning for Strait of Hormuz

France and Britain are leading a coalition of approximately 35 states — including non-NATO members Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Bahrain, and the UAE — in advanced planning to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz post-conflict.

Mar 27, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Formalizes Strait of Hormuz Toll Regime Amid Ongoing U.S.-Israeli Strikes

Iran warned three ships not to transit the Strait of Hormuz on March 27, 2026, as its parliament moved to codify a formal toll system asserting Iranian sovereignty over the waterway.

Mar 27, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Gulf States Fracture Over Iran War Endgame as IRGC Maintains Hormuz Stranglehold

Iran's IRGC is sustaining missile and drone attacks on Gulf civilian infrastructure — including Dubai's financial district — while maintaining a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting regional oil exports and global energy markets.

Mar 27, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S. Builds Toward 17,000 Ground Troops on Iran's Periphery

The U.S. is considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East, supplementing approximately 7,000 already ordered to the region, as part of a coercive posture against Iran during an active conflict.

Mar 26, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Joint Military Operation Against Iran

A joint U.S.-Israeli military operation has been underway for over three weeks, employing airstrikes that have eliminated specific Iranian leaders, degraded missile and naval assets, but failed to achieve regime change or destroy Iran's nuclear knowledge base.

Mar 26, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran: Four-Week Assessment

After approximately four weeks of active U.S.-Israel military strikes, two-thirds of Iran's missile, drone, and naval production facilities have been destroyed or damaged. Israel killed IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri and Iran's intelligence chief in decapitation strikes.

Mar 26, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Selective Strait of Hormuz Transit Permission (March 26 Gesture)

Iran permitted vessels from China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan to transit the Strait of Hormuz on March 26, while maintaining the broader closure that has produced what the IEA characterizes as the most acute energy supply disruption in global market history.

Mar 24, 2026Institutional reformWidening

Philippines Declares National Energy Emergency Amid Regional Fuel Crisis

Philippine President Marcos declared a national energy emergency on March 24 following fuel price increases exceeding 50 percent in a month, prompting subsidies, toll suspensions, and a potential fuel tax pause.

Mar 15, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran IRGC Establishes Hormuz Toll-Booth Regime

Since mid-March 2026, Iran's IRGC has operationalized effective control of the Strait of Hormuz by rerouting commercial shipping through an alternate Iranian-coastline corridor between Qeshm and Larak islands.

Mar 14, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

United States Reallocates JASSM-ER Stockpiles to Iran Campaign

The United States is reportedly preparing to commit nearly its full inventory of JASSM-ER long-range cruise missiles to ongoing operations against Iran, drawing from stockpiles previously assigned to other theaters.

Mar 11, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran War: Strait of Hormuz Effective Closure Disrupts Global Energy Markets

US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, removing approximately 12 million barrels per day from global oil supply and taking Qatari LNG export capacity fully offline, with two of fourteen LNG trains at Ras Laffan damaged.

Mar 10, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Directs Houthis to Prepare Renewed Red Sea Offensive Amid US-Iran War

Iran is reportedly directing Houthi leadership to prepare a renewed offensive against Red Sea shipping routes, with escalation contingent on US operational choices under Operation Epic Fury.

Mar 9, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Joint US-Israeli Military Operation Against Iran and Succession of Mojtaba Khamenei

A joint American-Israeli military operation has been targeting Iran's coercive apparatus — IRGC commanders, missile sites, and military installations — for approximately three weeks.

Mar 6, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

United Kingdom Intercepts Iranian Drones Over Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean

The United Kingdom publicly confirmed that RAF Typhoon and F-35 aircraft, backed by support and naval aviation assets, intercepted Iranian drones over the Eastern Mediterranean and Gulf partner states.

Mar 5, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

U.S.-South Korea Alliance Structural Strain Amid Iran War and Trade Disputes

The U.S.-Iran war has imposed severe economic costs on South Korea via Strait of Hormuz blockade, cutting over 70% of its crude oil imports and threatening semiconductor supply chains through helium shortages.

Mar 3, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iranian Drone Strike Damages U.S. Embassy in Riyadh

Iranian drones penetrated Riyadh's defended Diplomatic Quarter and struck the U.S. Embassy compound, heavily damaging secure areas and exposing vulnerabilities in both U.S. force protection and Saudi air defense coverage.

Mar 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Shahed Drone Strike Kills US Soldiers at Kuwait Military Operations Center

An Iranian-designed Shahed drone struck a US military operations center in Kuwait, killing six American soldiers during the first week of a US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran.

Mar 1, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Pakistan Positions as Iran-US Ceasefire Mediator During Operation Epic Fury

Pakistan has emerged as the primary intermediary transmitting a US 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran and offering Islamabad as a venue for direct talks during the ongoing 2026 Iran-US conflict.

Mar 1, 2026OtherMixed

Death of Ali Khamenei and Appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader

Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, following a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike campaign that killed him alongside senior officials and massively degraded Iran's military, air defenses, missile production, and nuclear facilities.

Mar 1, 2026Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Arab League Formal Condemnation of Iranian Strikes at UNSC

Arab League Secretary-General Aboul Gheit addressed the UN Security Council to formally condemn Iranian missile and drone strikes against Arab state civilian infrastructure — airports, ports, energy facilities, and residential areas — and Iranian actions threatening maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israel Strikes Kill Khamenei, Trigger Iranian Leadership Succession Amid Ongoing War

Beginning February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and multiple senior officials, with Mojtaba Khamenei subsequently installed as the new supreme leader by a clerical council.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Operation Epic Fury: Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran

Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28, 2026, with stated objectives of eliminating long-term existential threats and degrading Iran's defense industrial base. Israeli Foreign Minister Sa'ar acknowledged regime change as a potential consequence.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S. Expends 850+ Tomahawk Missiles in Operation Epic Fury

In the first month of Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the United States fired at least 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles — the largest single-conflict expenditure on record.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israel Joint Military Campaign Against Iran (Operation Epic Fury / Roaring Lion) Launched

The United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, without congressional authorization and with legally contested jus ad bellum justifications.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Blocks Strait of Hormuz Amid US-Israeli Military Campaign

Following the commencement of US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas flows. Brent crude surged over 40 percent above pre-war levels, exceeding $116/barrel at peak.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Following US-Israeli Military Campaign

Following the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began on 28 February 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and conducted retaliatory strikes on Gulf oil and gas infrastructure, including Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar.

Feb 26, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Netanyahu Proposes Gulf Energy Pipeline Reroute to Bypass Strait of Hormuz

Israeli PM Netanyahu publicly proposed rerouting Gulf energy pipelines westward through Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea and Mediterranean, explicitly framing it as a long-term solution to Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.

Feb 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Campaign Against Iran Triggers Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Third Islamic Republic Transition

Coordinated U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian military and political leaders, triggering a succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and a comprehensive Iranian asymmetric counteroffensive.

Jan 22, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Threatens NATO Withdrawal Over Iran War Coalition Failure

Trump publicly declared he is 'absolutely without question' considering withdrawing the US from NATO, citing European members' refusal to join the US-Israeli war on Iran and their denial of airspace and basing access.

Oct 18, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Launch Ballistic Missile and Drone Strikes on Israel

After a month's absence from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone attack against southern Israel — all intercepted by the IDF.

Sep 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

China Intelligence Exploitation of US-Iran Conflict (Operation Roaring Lion)

As US and Israeli forces conduct high-intensity multi-domain operations against Iran (Operation Roaring Lion/Epic Fury), China is conducting systematic intelligence collection across electronic, imagery, and open-source domains to extract lessons on US operational signatures, platform vulnerabilities, AI and EW employment, and strategic decision-making under Trump.

Jul 21, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Iran Armed Conflict Week Five: Airstrikes on Tehran and Strait of Hormuz Closure

U.S. airstrikes continue against Tehran targets as the bilateral conflict extends into its fifth week, with ground troop deployment now under active consideration. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering an oil price surge and significant disruption to global energy markets.

Jul 18, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Strikes Destroy 70% of Iran's Steel Production Capacity

Multiple waves of US and Israeli airstrikes have disabled Iran's two largest steel plants, with Netanyahu claiming 70 percent of Iranian steel production capacity has been destroyed. Steel is a dual-use strategic material essential to Iran's missile, drone, and shipbuilding programs.

Jul 18, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Trump Claims Intent to Seize Iranian Oil and Open Hormuz Strait

Trump publicly stated the US intends to 'take' Iran's oil and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, framing prolonged military engagement as economically rational. The US military has simultaneously acknowledged it is not operationally ready to escort vessels through the strait.

Jul 17, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

US-Israel Strike Campaign Against Iran Enters Day 32 With Escalating Coercion

US and Israeli air strikes continue against Iranian territory including Tehran and Isfahan on the 32nd day of active conflict. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed back-channel communications via intermediaries are active, framing resolution as achievable within weeks.

Jul 17, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

UAE Systematic Crackdown on Iranian Diaspora and Institutions

The UAE has revoked visas for Iranian nationals, banned Iranian passport holders from entry or transit, and closed key Iranian institutions including a hospital, schools, and a social club in Dubai.

Jul 16, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Primetime Address on Iran War: Victory Claims Amid Ongoing Hostilities

Trump addressed the nation claiming US forces have struck over 12,300 targets and 'decimated' Iranian naval drone and ballistic missile capabilities since Operation Epic Fury began five weeks ago.

Jul 16, 2025OtherWidening

Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War: No Exit Strategy Defined

More than a month into active U.S.-Iran hostilities, Trump delivered a nationally televised address claiming significant military progress while failing to articulate a defined end state. He estimated the conflict would conclude within three weeks but simultaneously threatened further escalation.

Jul 16, 2025OtherMixed

Trump Prime-Time Address Defends Iran War Objectives and Conditions

One month into active U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran, Trump delivered a White House address claiming tactical success — including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and strikes on three nuclear sites — while acknowledging the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran has not capitulated.

Jul 16, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Prime-Time Address on Operation Epic Fury Against Iran

President Trump declared that U.S. military operations under Operation Epic Fury have effectively dismantled Iran's conventional military power — destroying its navy, air force, missile stockpiles, nuclear facilities, and command-and-control infrastructure within approximately 32 days.

Jul 15, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Hegseth Acknowledges Russo-Chinese Intelligence Support to Iran, Signals US Response

US Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed at a Pentagon briefing that Russia and China are actively providing Iran with intelligence on US troop movements, and stated the US is 'addressing it.' This represents a significant trilateral intelligence-sharing challenge to US operational security in the Persian Gulf theater.

Jul 15, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Threatens NATO Withdrawal Over Strait of Hormuz Dispute

President Trump publicly threatened to withdraw the US from NATO, describing the alliance as a 'paper tiger,' in response to European allies' refusal to grant base access for Iran strikes and their dismissal of calls to assist transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Jul 14, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

US-Iran War: Trump Administration Seeks Arab Gulf State War Cost-Sharing

The Trump administration publicly signaled intent to demand Arab states fund US military operations against Iran, mirroring the 1990-91 Gulf War cost-sharing model.

Jul 14, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Gulf Dual Chokepoint Crisis Cascades into North Africa and Sahel

Simultaneous effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridor — triggered by US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation including Houthi escalation — has reconfigured global trade flows at structural scale.

Jul 14, 2025OtherWidening

Trump Floats Arab Burden-Sharing for US-Israel War on Iran

The Trump administration signaled it may pressure Arab Gulf states to fund the ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, analogizing to the 1991 Gulf War model where GCC states covered ~88% of coalition costs.

Jul 14, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Jordan-Saudi Arabia Corridor Integration Push Amid Regional Trade Route Disruption

Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes — caused by the Iran war and Houthi interdiction — are accelerating Gulf state interest in overland trade corridors through Jordan.

Jul 14, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Iran-Pakistan Hormuz Transit Agreement for Pakistani-Flagged Vessels

Iran concluded a bilateral arrangement granting safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to up to 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels, leveraging its de facto control over the strait to reward a diplomatic partner.

Jul 14, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

U.S. Request for South Korean Naval Participation in Strait of Hormuz Coalition

The Trump administration has requested South Korea join a multilateral naval convoy to counter Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Seoul has responded equivocally, joining a multilateral condemnation statement but evading commitment on direct military involvement.

Jul 14, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

European NATO Allies Block U.S. Military Operations Against Iran

Spain, Italy, and France have blocked or restricted U.S. military overflight and basing rights for operations against Iran, while refusing to assist in clearing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has responded by threatening to withdraw from NATO.

Jul 13, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Pakistan Announces US-Iran Mediation Talks Amid Escalating Regional War

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced Islamabad will host talks between the US and Iran following a regional summit with Turkish, Egyptian, and Saudi diplomats.

Jul 13, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Egypt-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Turkey Quartet Foreign Ministers Meeting in Islamabad

The foreign ministers of Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey convened in Islamabad, formalizing a multilateral diplomatic initiative aimed at brokering a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict and shaping post-war regional architecture.

Jul 11, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Exercises Effective Control Over Strait of Hormuz During U.S.-Israel War

Iran has reduced vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz from over 100 to a handful daily following the outbreak of war with the U.S. and Israel, deploying drones, missiles, and fast boats to enforce a de facto blockade.

Jul 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-U.S.-Israel War: Iranian Hormuz Chokehold Leaves U.S. Strategically Checkmated

Approximately 30 days into a war initiated by Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in June 2025, Iran has leveraged control of the Strait of Hormuz to impose sustained pressure on global energy markets and trade, a contingency the U.S. military was unprepared for.

Jul 10, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

UK-Convened Multilateral Meeting on Strait of Hormuz Access

The UK convened 30+ nations to coordinate a response to the Strait of Hormuz closure, which currently threatens 50% of India's oil imports and disrupts global energy and fertiliser supply chains. The US explicitly abstained, with Trump declaring the strait's security a problem for other nations.

Jul 10, 2025Legal changeNarrowing

Iran Formalizes Strait of Hormuz Oversight Protocol with Oman

Iran's deputy foreign minister announced drafting of a bilateral protocol with Oman to institutionalize joint oversight of Strait of Hormuz transit, extending a de facto blockade posture into a formal legal-administrative framework.

Jul 10, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK Convenes 41-Nation Diplomatic Coordination on Strait of Hormuz Closure

The UK foreign secretary convened a virtual meeting of 41 nations to coordinate diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran following its effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Jul 10, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Trump Wartime Address Signals US Abdication of Hormuz Security Role

President Trump delivered a nationally televised address defending the ongoing US-Iran war, asserting strategic objectives are near completion while acknowledging Tehran has not fallen after 33 days of intensive strikes.

Jul 10, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

UK-Led Allied Coalition Convenes Hormuz Reopening Strategy Meeting

More than 40 US allies held a UK-convened virtual meeting to coordinate responses to the Strait of Hormuz closure, encompassing diplomatic outreach to Tehran, potential sanctions, and military planning for post-conflict naval deployment.

Jul 10, 2025Diplomatic exchangeNarrowing

Russia-India High-Level Economic and Energy Cooperation Talks

Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov held senior-level meetings in New Delhi with Prime Minister Modi, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, NSA Doval, and Finance Minister Sitharaman to expand bilateral cooperation across energy, fertilisers, nuclear power, critical minerals, and defence.

Jul 10, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Zarif Floats Comprehensive Iran-US Peace Framework

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's former foreign minister with no current official role, publicly proposed a comprehensive peace framework in Foreign Affairs magazine offering nuclear enrichment limits (below 3.67% purity), permanent IAEA monitoring, Hormuz reopening, and US oil sector access in exchange for sanctions relief, a non-aggression pact, and war compensation.

Jul 9, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Threatens NATO Exit Following Iran War Alliance Fracture

President Trump publicly declared NATO withdrawal is 'beyond reconsideration,' calling the alliance a 'paper tiger' after key members — the UK, France, and Spain — declined to join U.S. military operations against Iran or assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Jul 9, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Trump Threatens Strikes on Iranian Power and Oil Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's electrical generation plants and oil facilities if Tehran refuses a nuclear deal.

Jul 9, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Declares Iran War Objectives 'Nearing Completion' in Nationally Televised Address

After 32 days of U.S. military operations, Trump publicly declared Iran is 'no longer a threat' and that strategic objectives are nearing completion, while announcing continued heavy strikes over the next two to three weeks.

Jul 9, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Prime-Time Address on Operation Epic Fury Progress and Escalation Threats

President Trump delivered a prime-time national address framing US military operations against Iran as nearly complete while simultaneously threatening to escalate strikes to Iranian power generation infrastructure within two to three weeks.

Jul 9, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel War with Iran Enters Endgame Search Phase

One month into the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, the conflict has produced over 5,000 casualties — roughly 3,750 in Iran and 1,300 in Lebanon — with a second Israeli front opened against Hezbollah. US fuel prices have surpassed $4/gallon, creating domestic political pressure.

Jul 8, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

China-Pakistan Joint Ceasefire Proposal for Iran War

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar issued a five-point joint proposal in Beijing calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Iran war, protection of Strait of Hormuz shipping, and launch of peace talks.

Jul 8, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S. Signals Exit from Iran Military Campaign with Redefined War Objectives

The Trump administration is signaling imminent withdrawal from active combat operations against Iran after approximately one month of strikes, with Secretary Rubio publicly redefining success criteria to focus on conventional military degradation rather than nuclear elimination or regime change.

Jul 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthi Entry into Iran War Threatens Bab al-Mandab Chokepoint

Houthi entry into an active Iran war has revived fears of a full closure of the Bab al-Mandab strait, compounding disruption already caused by IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Jul 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump White House Address on U.S.-Iran War Signals, Threats, and Strategic Ambiguity

Trump's White House address revealed deep strategic incoherence one month into the U.S.-Iran war: pledging continued strikes for 2-3 weeks, threatening simultaneous destruction of Iran's electrical grid, while deflecting responsibility for Hormuz reopening onto allies and hinting at unilateral U.S. withdrawal.

Jul 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

African States Refuse Alignment with Iran During Active Conflict

African states, including traditionally Iran-aligned partners, have declined to support Tehran during its ongoing war, with the African Union explicitly calling for de-escalation.

Jul 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK Convenes 30+ Nation Diplomatic Coalition to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The United Kingdom is convening over 30 countries for talks aimed at exerting diplomatic and political pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Jul 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Iran-Israel-U.S. War Spills into Gulf, Exposing Gulf State Security Vulnerability

Iranian missiles and drones have struck Gulf state territory — targeting civilian populations, critical infrastructure, and economic corridors — as a consequence of those states hosting U.S. military bases.

Jun 27, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Activates Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Coercive Economic Weapon

Iran has operationalized control of the Strait of Hormuz as a physical blockade, disrupting over a fifth of global oil supply and triggering cascading effects on natural gas, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor production dependent on Gulf-sourced inputs.

Jun 27, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Downs Two U.S. Warplanes During Active Air Operations

Two U.S. warplanes were downed over Iran and the Persian Gulf during what appear to be active U.S.-Israeli air operations against Iran. Iranian forces are actively pursuing a missing third U.S. pilot, demonstrating residual Iranian territorial control and SAM capability.

Jun 26, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Trump Threatens Iran with Escalatory Bombing Amid Active U.S.-Israeli War

President Trump used a televised address to defend U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran and issued an extreme escalatory threat of total destruction. Iran's armed forces responded with warnings of more destructive counterattacks.

Jun 25, 2025Information-cyberNarrowing

Pezeshkian Issues Public Address to American People During Active US-Iran Conflict

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released an open letter to the American public asserting Iran's defensive posture, framing US military action as serving Israeli rather than American interests, and warning of reputational and strategic costs to the United States.

Jun 23, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Second Attack on Israel Amid Iranian Bab Al-Mandeb Threat

Houthis executed their second attack on Israel since the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran, while Tehran simultaneously threatened to disrupt shipping through Bab Al-Mandeb.

Jun 23, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Prime-Time Address on US-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran

Trump delivered a 19-minute White House address declaring near-victory in the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, claiming its missile, drone, and nuclear infrastructure have been severely degraded within 32 days.

Jun 22, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Pakistan Publicly Announces US-Iran Mediation Role

Pakistan formally disclosed its backchannel mediation role between the United States and Iran, with Foreign Minister Dar claiming bilateral confidence from both parties.

Jun 22, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Claims U.S. Strikes Achieved Regime Change and Nuclear Elimination in Iran

Trump publicly claimed that U.S. strikes have achieved regime change in Iran and eliminated its nuclear capability, citing overnight strikes near Isfahan's nuclear facility. He asserted Iran has 'no strength left' and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen automatically upon U.S. withdrawal.

Jun 22, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

IRGC Threatens US Tech Companies as Legitimate Military Targets

Iran's IRGC issued a conditional threat to strike more than 15 US technology companies operating in the region, designating firms involved in AI and ICT-enabled targeting as legitimate military targets.

Jun 22, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Declares Iran Nuclear Objective Achieved, Announces US Force Withdrawal

US President Trump announced American forces will withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks, asserting the campaign objective of preventing Iranian nuclear weapons capability has been achieved.

Jun 22, 2025OtherWidening

Iran Rejects Ceasefire Framework, Conditions Resolution on Guarantees and Compensation

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly rejected a ceasefire framing in favor of a full regional cessation of hostilities, while characterizing US-Iran contacts as informal message exchanges rather than negotiations.

Jun 22, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

U.S.-Israeli Rescue of Downed American Airman in Iran

After Iran shot down a U.S. F-15, the United States successfully recovered the stranded airman from Iranian territory or contested space, with Israeli intelligence support and a localized Israeli pause in strikes to enable the mission.

Jun 22, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

US Deep-Penetration Rescue Mission in Isfahan

US forces reportedly inserted special operations personnel deep into Iran to recover a downed airman, using airpower to suppress approaching Iranian units and destroying stranded aircraft to prevent capture.

Jun 21, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Signaling on Bab al Mandeb Amid US-Iran Escalation

As US-Israeli strikes against Iran escalate, the Houthis have signaled willingness to extend disruption operations to the Bab al Mandeb Strait, compounding Iran's restrictions on Hormuz traffic.

Jun 20, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Strikes Prince Sultan Air Base, Destroys U.S. Aircraft

Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, heavily damaging or destroying a U.S. E-3 AWACS radar aircraft and multiple KC-135 refueling tankers, wounding approximately twelve troops.

Jun 20, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Iran-Linked Factions Escalate Attacks Across Iraq Amid US-Israeli War on Iran

Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups under the Islamic Resistance in Iraq umbrella have launched sustained drone and missile attacks on US military and commercial targets across Iraq, including in Erbil, Baghdad, and Basra, prompting US and Israeli retaliatory strikes on PMU positions.

Jun 20, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Mediation Collapses

Pakistan-led regional mediation efforts to broker a U.S.-Iran ceasefire have collapsed, with Iran formally rejecting a meeting in Islamabad and declaring U.S. demands unacceptable.

Jun 19, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Threatens NATO Exit Amid US-Iran War Strategic Impasse

President Trump publicly characterized NATO as a 'paper tiger' and raised the prospect of US withdrawal from the alliance during the ongoing US-Iran conflict, while simultaneously demanding European and Gulf states form an independent coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Jun 19, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Iran War Escalation: Strait of Hormuz Closure and Allied Fracture

Ongoing U.S. strikes on Iran are destroying infrastructure including bridges and research institutes, while Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, demonstrating residual strike capability.

Jun 19, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

40-Nation Hormuz Coalition Talks Convene; US Army Chief Fired Mid-War

Approximately 40 countries held an initial virtual meeting, chaired by Britain, to form a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's blockade. No agreements were reached but military planners are scheduled to meet the following week to discuss mine-clearing and escort options.

Jun 19, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

30-Nation Military Planning Talks Convened on Strait of Hormuz Security

Britain announced military planning talks among roughly 30 nations to discuss options for securing the Strait of Hormuz, while Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper simultaneously convened a virtual foreign ministers meeting on the diplomatic response.

Jun 19, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Destroys Iran's B1 Tehran-Karaj Highway Bridge

US forces destroyed the B1 highway bridge connecting Tehran to Karaj, Iran's two most populous urban centers, killing eight and injuring 95. President Trump publicly celebrated the strike and threatened further attacks on civilian infrastructure including desalination plants.

Jun 18, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK-Led 35-Nation Coalition Convenes to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The UK is convening 35 countries to assess diplomatic, political, and military options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's partial blockade of the waterway.

Jun 18, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Japan-France Alignment on Strait of Hormuz Freedom of Navigation

Japanese PM Takaichi and French President Macron publicly aligned on the need to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Jun 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Air Denial Strategy Closes Strait of Hormuz

Iran is employing a distributed drone and missile campaign to deny effective U.S. and commercial use of the Strait of Hormuz despite suffering catastrophic conventional military losses, including roughly 80% of its air defenses and effective elimination of its navy.

Jun 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Declares Core Strategic Objectives Nearing Completion in US-Iran War

Trump's first national address since the US-Iran war began signals the conflict is in an advanced but unresolved phase.

Jun 18, 2025OtherNarrowing

Trump Address on Iran War and Commitment to Continue Campaign

President Trump addressed the nation on the ongoing U.S. military campaign against Iran, committing to continue bombing operations for at least two to three weeks and explicitly rejecting a ceasefire.

Jun 18, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Trump Signals Continued Iran War, Oil Markets Spike to $106

President Trump announced from the White House that U.S. forces would continue striking Iran 'extremely hard' over the next two to three weeks, describing the conflict as 'nearing completion' without providing a timeline. Brent crude surged nearly 5 percent to $106/barrel and WTI rose to $104.

Jun 18, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Repeated NATO Abandonment Threats Amid Iran War Fallout

President Trump threatened to leave NATO again following European refusal to join the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Secretary Rubio warned that the US-NATO relationship would need 're-examination' post-war.

Jun 18, 2025Information-cyberMixed

Trump Prime-Time Address Claims Iran Military Destruction While Threatening Further Escalation

Trump delivered a prime-time address asserting Iran's military capabilities — navy, air force, missile programme, nuclear infrastructure — are largely destroyed and claiming effective regime change following the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Jun 17, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Strike Wave Hits Iranian Infrastructure as Trump Threatens Energy and Water Systems

A coordinated wave of US-Israeli airstrikes struck Iranian military bases, a pharmaceutical plant producing cancer drugs and anaesthetics, a Shia religious centre in Zanjan, and reportedly a desalination plant on Qeshm Island.

Jun 16, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Kharg Island Seizure Amid Active US-Iran Military Conflict

President Trump has publicly threatened to deploy US ground forces to seize Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass, as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate.

Jun 15, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-Houthi Dual-Axis Maritime Chokepoint Escalation

Iranian forces struck Prince Sultan US airbase in Saudi Arabia, injuring 12 American personnel and damaging a high-value E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft. Houthi forces simultaneously resumed long-range missile launches into Israel and threaten Bab-el-Mandeb transit.

Jun 15, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens US Ground Operation to Seize Iran's Kharg Island

President Trump publicly threatened to seize Kharg Island, through which approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports transit, as part of an ongoing US-Iran military conflict exceeding one month in duration.

Jun 14, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump Signals Willingness to End Iran Campaign with Hormuz Still Closed

President Trump has privately communicated willingness to terminate the U.S. military campaign against Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, deferring that objective to diplomatic pressure on Tehran and potential leadership by European and Gulf allies.

Jun 13, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Ballistic Missile Strike on Israel During US-Israel-Iran Conflict

The Houthis launched their first confirmed ballistic missile strike on Israel since the onset of the current US-Israeli conflict against Iran, entering after weeks of deliberate restraint.

Jun 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Activates Houthis as Proxy Escalation Vector Against Israel and Gulf Choke Points

Iran is moving to bring the Houthis more directly into its conflict with the US and Israel, with the Houthis launching a missile at Israel for the first time since the Iran-Israel war began. IRGC personnel present in Yemen signal coordinated command rather than autonomous Houthi action.

Jun 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Israel-US Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month with Expanded Gulf Escalation

Israeli and US forces continue sustained strikes against Iranian military and energy infrastructure, with Netanyahu claiming over half of military objectives achieved including near-destruction of Iran's arms industry.

Jun 9, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Civilian Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's desalination plants, electricity generation infrastructure, oil wells, and Kharg Island unless Iran reaches a deal and opens the Strait of Hormuz. The threats were issued via Truth Social and explicitly framed as retribution.

Jun 8, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump States Intent to Seize Iran's Kharg Island Oil Infrastructure

Trump publicly declared intent to seize or destroy Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil exports flow, framing resource seizure as a US war objective. He also threatened to obliterate Iran's broader energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

Jun 7, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Saudi Arabia-US Alliance Strain Over Iran War Conduct

Saudi Arabia has reached a critical point of frustration with the Trump administration's management of the US-Iran conflict, driven by Trump's threats against Iranian energy infrastructure, demands that Gulf states fund the war, and public humiliation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Jun 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Multi-Front Iran War Escalation: Gulf Strikes, Hormuz Threat, UAE Travel Ban

Iran and its proxies struck fuel infrastructure at Kuwait International Airport and a Bahraini business facility via drone, while the Houthis launched a missile toward southern Israel, reopening that front after a 19-hour lull.

Jun 3, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Pakistan-China Joint Five-Part Middle East Peace Initiative Launched

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing to align on a joint five-part peace proposal for the Middle East, framing the initiative around ceasefire, diplomatic dialogue, and Hormuz waterway safety.

Jun 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-US War: Diplomatic Signals Amid Continued Hormuz Closure and AWACS Loss

A five-week-old US-Iran war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering global energy supply disruptions, $4/gallon US gasoline, and significant inflation risk.

Jun 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals US Exit from Iran War, Shifts Hormuz Responsibility to Third Parties

Trump publicly declared US military objectives in Iran largely achieved and indicated a withdrawal within two to three weeks, framing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a problem for energy-dependent third parties — particularly China — rather than the US.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Energy and Desalination Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened on Truth Social to destroy Iran's electrical generation plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and potentially desalination facilities if a deal is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump Deploys Troops to Middle East, Considers Kharg Island Seizure

President Trump has deployed thousands of US troops to the Middle East region amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, while openly discussing seizure of Iran's Kharg Island — the hub for approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel War with Iran Creates Strategic Opening for China

The ongoing US-Israel military conflict with Iran is creating compounding strategic advantages for China beyond the theater of direct combat.

May 27, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Coercive Diplomacy Briefing: Iran War Enters Second Month

The US is conducting an active military campaign against Iran now entering its second month, targeting Iran's defense industrial base, logistics, and drone/missile production capacity. US forces have achieved air superiority over Iranian airspace, including B-52 overflights of the Iranian mainland.

May 19, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Civilian Energy and Water Infrastructure

President Trump issued a public threat via social media to destroy Iranian electricity plants, oil facilities, and potentially desalination infrastructure if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

May 19, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Emergence of the Global Missile War Era: Iran, Ukraine, and South Asia Conflicts

Concurrent missile conflicts across the Middle East, Europe, and South Asia — involving the US, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, India, and Pakistan — mark a structural inflection in warfare where precision strike capability has proliferated to the point that even middling powers can hold great-power assets at risk.

May 15, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Strait of Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Fertilizer Supply Chain

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one month into the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, has disrupted approximately one-third of globally seaborne fertilizer trade, including ammonia, urea, and sulfur shipments.

May 15, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK-Led 40-Nation Coalition Talks on Hormuz Reopening Without U.S.

The United Kingdom convened virtual talks with representatives from over 40 countries to coordinate a response to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz following at least 23 Iranian attacks on commercial vessels.

May 15, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Fortifies Kharg Island and Launches 'Janfada' Mobilization Campaign

Iran is hardening defenses around Kharg Island — its primary oil export terminal — by deploying guided missile systems, laying coastal mines, and booby-trapping facilities.

May 8, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

PRC-Russia Eurasian Bloc Institutionalization, 2022–2026

From 2022 to early 2026, the PRC-Russia relationship transitioned from tactical alignment to functional bloc formation, anchored by financial system integration bypassing SWIFT, energy corridor expansion, military-industrial supply chain coupling, and coordinated multilateral positioning through SCO and BRICS.

May 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iranian Ballistic Missile Strike Destroys US E-3 Sentry AWACS at Prince Sultan Air Base

Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles, destroying a US E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft — valued at approximately $300 million and the first combat loss of the type — while damaging several additional military jets.

May 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Military Escalation Against Iran Accelerates China's Structural Power Position

US military engagement against Iran, framed as degrading a pillar of Chinese-Russian Eurasian influence, is assessed as structurally counterproductive.

May 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Shadow Fleet Starlink and Crypto Evasion Infrastructure Exposed

An investigation reveals Russia's shadow fleet of over 3,000 tankers uses Starlink terminals, cryptocurrency payroll systems, and intermediary networks routed through China, Namibia, and Oman to evade Western sanctions and sustain oil revenues funding its invasion of Ukraine.

Apr 29, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Strait of Hormuz Closure and US-Iran War Escalation with Uncertain Exit

A US-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of seaborne oil transits. Brent crude has surged ~60% and US gasoline has topped $4 per gallon.

Apr 23, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran: Ceasefire Signaling and Strait of Hormuz Disengagement Declaration

The United States and Israel are conducting a combined military campaign described as 'systematically crushing' Iranian government capacity. Iran has signaled readiness for a ceasefire contingent on firm security guarantees against future strikes.

Apr 23, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals U.S. Exit from Iran War, Oil Markets React

President Trump announced a U.S. withdrawal from active military engagement in Iran within two to three weeks, claiming the nuclear threat has been neutralized. Oil markets responded with Brent crude briefly falling below $100/barrel.

Apr 18, 2025Institutional reformWidening

UN Security Council Postpones Hormuz Force Authorization Vote

The UN Security Council postponed a vote on a draft resolution authorizing member states to use defensive force to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blockaded in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes.

Apr 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Intensified Strikes on Iran, No Diplomatic Off-Ramp Offered

Trump publicly threatened escalated military strikes against Iran within two to three weeks, including targeting power plants and oil infrastructure, while offering no diplomatic pathway or ceasefire assurances.

Apr 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US F-15E Shot Down Over Iran, A-10 Warthog Downed Near Strait of Hormuz

Two U.S. military aircraft were lost in the Iran-Hormuz theater: an Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iran and an A-10 Warthog went down near the Strait of Hormuz, with its pilot rescued. Trump's national security team assembled in emergency session at the White House.

Apr 17, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Primetime Address Declares US-Iran War 'Nearing Completion'

Trump delivered a 19-minute national address claiming US military objectives in Iran were nearly achieved after 32 days of Operation Epic Fury, while simultaneously threatening continued strikes for 'two to three weeks.' The speech failed to define clear end conditions, contradicted Tehran's denial of ceasefire requests, and deepened confusion over US war aims.

Apr 17, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Closure if Gulf States Join US-Israeli Campaign Against Iran

Houthi Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour publicly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait — a critical chokepoint controlling sea access to the Suez Canal — if Gulf states join US-Israeli operations against Iran.

Apr 17, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Macron Publicly Rebukes Trump Over Iran War Strategy and NATO Commitment

French President Macron, speaking in Seoul, directly criticized Trump's oscillating public statements on the Iran war as undermining strategic seriousness, and rejected Trump's demand that Europe force open the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 16, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

IRGC Issues Threat Against US Corporate Infrastructure in the Gulf

The IRGC publicly listed 18 US technology and manufacturing companies operating in the Gulf — including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, and Boeing — threatening strikes against them in retaliation for continued US military operations against Iran.

Apr 16, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Signals NATO Withdrawal Over Iran War Non-Participation

President Trump publicly characterized NATO as a 'paper tiger' and stated U.S. membership is 'beyond reconsideration' after allies refused to support U.S. operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 16, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel War Against Iran: Multi-Front Regional Escalation

Following the US-Israeli assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei through coordinated airstrikes, a regional war has erupted spanning Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and multiple Gulf states.

Apr 16, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran-Israel Multi-Front Escalation: Tehran Strikes, Iranian Counterattack, and Hormuz Standoff

Major strikes hit Tehran and Isfahan province, damaging infrastructure and wounding officials including former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi. Iran responded with what state media called one of its largest-ever missile attacks on Israel, wounding at least 14.

Apr 16, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Trump Prime-Time Address Exposes U.S.-Iran War Strategic Incoherence

Trump's televised address failed to articulate a coherent exit strategy for the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, revealing contradictions between his two-to-three week withdrawal timeline and statements implying extended military presence.

Apr 15, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthi Threat to Red Sea Shipping Resurfaces Amid Iran-Israel War

With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed by the Iran-Israel war, the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait have become the primary alternative oil export corridor for Saudi Arabia, making them a heightened strategic target.

Apr 15, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

US-Israel Joint Framing of Iran Nuclear Degradation as War Termination Threshold

Trump and Netanyahu issued coordinated public statements asserting that Iran's nuclear weapons capability has been structurally degraded through ongoing military operations, with Netanyahu specifically claiming destruction of Iran's industrial production capacity for nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Apr 15, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Iran Selectively Grants Strait of Hormuz Passage Rights to Asian States

Iran has established a selective passage regime through the Strait of Hormuz, granting access to ships from countries it deems politically non-hostile — including China, India, Japan, Pakistan, Thailand, and Malaysia — while effectively blocking others.

Apr 15, 2025Institutional reformMixed

Iran Leadership Transition to IRGC-Aligned Hardliners Amid Active Conflict

Following the death or incapacitation of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the targeted killing of senior military figures, Iran's power structure has reconsolidated around IRGC-aligned hardliners including parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf and new national security advisor Zolghadr.

Apr 14, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Threatens Seizure of Kharg Island and Iranian Energy Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to seize Iran's Kharg Island — which processes 90% of Iranian oil exports — and destroy energy infrastructure if Iran maintains its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 14, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalation: Strikes, Mediation Collapse, and Military Options

U.S.-Israeli strikes hit uranium processing and university infrastructure in Tehran and Isfahan, while Iran struck aluminum plants in Bahrain and UAE and attacked a U.S. airbase in Saudi Arabia, wounding twelve troops.

Apr 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals Intensified Iran Strikes Over Two to Three Week Horizon

Trump publicly committed to dramatically escalating U.S. military operations against Iran, threatening to strike oil and energy infrastructure and invoking a 2-3 week intensification window.

Apr 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S. Airstrikes Target Iranian Infrastructure; Iran Strikes Gulf State Facilities

U.S. airstrikes destroyed Iran's largest bridge and a major public health facility, while U.S.-Israeli strikes continued against Iranian targets. Iran retaliated by striking a Kuwaiti desalination plant and oil refinery, and debris from an intercepted missile caused UAE gas facility closures.

Apr 7, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Civilian Infrastructure Including Desalination Plants

President Trump escalated his coercive posture toward Iran by publicly threatening to destroy electricity generation plants, oil infrastructure, Kharg Island, and desalination facilities if negotiations fail and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Apr 7, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Establishes Permission-Based Control Over Strait of Hormuz

Iran, through IRGC operations, has reduced commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz by 95%, removing approximately 15 million barrels of oil per day from global markets.

Apr 7, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Zarif Publishes Bilateral Reset Proposal Excluding Gulf States

Former Iranian FM Mohammad Javad Zarif published a Foreign Affairs essay proposing a U.S.-Iran bilateral deal: enrichment capped below 3.67%, IAEA Additional Protocol ratification, full material transfer to a multilateral consortium, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and a bilateral nonaggression pact.

Apr 6, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Dual-Track Escalation Strategy: Horizontal and Vertical Expansion

Following direct US-Israeli strikes, Iran executed a deliberate escalation strategy targeting 14 countries within six days, with the UAE bearing the brunt of over 2,100 drone and missile intercepts.

Apr 5, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Houthi Ballistic Missile Strike on Israel — First Direct Entry into U.S.-Israel-Iran War

Yemen's Houthi movement launched its first ballistic missile barrage targeting Israeli military sites, marking its direct entry into the broader U.S.-Israeli war against Iran that began February 28. The strike was framed as solidarity with Iran and Hezbollah.

Apr 5, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

United States Expands Iran Air Campaign to Civilian Infrastructure Targets

The United States struck a bridge west of Tehran and signaled possible follow-on attacks against Iran's power infrastructure and other civilian-adjacent facilities.

Apr 5, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Disrupts Strait of Hormuz Transit Amid US Strike Threats

Iran's virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated strikes on Israel and Gulf states demonstrate its capacity to impose immediate costs on regional shipping and energy flows despite US and Israeli pressure.

Apr 4, 2025Legal changeMixed

UNSC Vote on Strait of Hormuz Shipping Protection Resolution

Bahrain, as UNSC chair, finalized a draft resolution authorizing 'all defensive means necessary' to protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for at least six months, following US-Israeli strikes on Iran that effectively closed the strait.

Apr 4, 2025Legal changeMixed

UNSC Vote on Bahrain Hormuz Shipping Resolution

Bahrain, as Security Council chair and backed by Gulf states and Washington, advanced a resolution authorizing 'all defensive means necessary' to protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for at least six months.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel-Iran War: Infrastructure Targeting Phase and Strait of Hormuz Blockade

US and Israeli forces have degraded approximately 70 percent of Iran's steel production capacity and struck its tallest bridge, while Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas transit.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

IRGC Claims Downing of US F-35 Launched from RAF Lakenheath

Iran's IRGC claimed its air defenses shot down a US F-35 over central Iran, identifying the aircraft by tail code as belonging to the 493rd Fighter Squadron based at RAF Lakenheath, Suffolk. The Pentagon had not confirmed or denied the claim at time of publication.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran-Israel Infrastructure War Escalation with Hormuz Blockade

The US-Israeli-Iran war has escalated into systematic mutual infrastructure strikes targeting steel plants, bridges, power grids, refineries, and desalination complexes across the region. Iran has virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas transit.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Hormuz Seizure and Iranian Power Infrastructure

President Trump publicly declared US intent to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and capture Iranian oil revenues, while separately threatening Iranian civilian power plants with no stated timeline for ending hostilities.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Effectively Closes Strait of Hormuz Amid War

Iran has effectively halted normal commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz by creating a credible threat environment rather than imposing a formal legal blockade.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Shoots Down US F-15 Over Central Iran

Iran claims it destroyed a US F-15 in central Iranian airspace, forcing a live recovery contest over the crew between Iranian and US forces. If accurate, the incident demonstrates that Iran can contest US air superiority over its own territory and impose operational friction on US strike campaigns.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Shoots Down U.S. Warplane Over Iranian Territory

Iranian forces reportedly shot down a U.S. F-15E over Iranian territory, with one crew member rescued and another missing, marking the first confirmed U.S. aircraft loss inside Iran during the war.

Apr 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Retaliatory Missile and Drone Strikes on Israel and Gulf States; US Destroys Tehran-Karaj Bridge

Iran launched missiles targeting Israel and drone/missile attacks against Kuwait and the Iraq-Jordan border crossing at Trebil, in response to sustained US-Israeli strikes including the destruction of Iran's highest bridge linking Tehran to Karaj.

Apr 3, 2025Institutional reformNarrowing

Trump Unveils $1.5 Trillion FY2027 Defense Budget Request

The Trump administration submitted a $1.5 trillion defense budget request for FY2027, the largest year-over-year increase in post-WWII US defense spending history.

Apr 3, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

China Rare-Earth Export Controls and Hormuz Closure Expose U.S. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

China's rare-earth export licensing system and Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure have emerged as effective counter-coercion tools against U.S. economic and military aggression.

Apr 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S. Fighter Jet Shot Down Over Iran

An American fighter aircraft was shot down over Iranian territory, constituting the first such known loss since the conflict began. Iran has activated a civilian-military search effort to capture or kill surviving crew, raising the prospect of U.S. prisoners of war inside Iran.

Apr 3, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Sustains Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Primary Coercive Lever

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively blocked commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, using mine deployment, vessel attacks, and passage fee demands.

Apr 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

F-15E Strike Eagle Downed Over Iran in First US Combat Aircraft Loss to Hostile Fire

An F-15E Strike Eagle — a two-seat aircraft — was shot down over Iran, marking the first confirmed loss of a US warplane to hostile fire in the US-Iran war that began February 28. One crew member was recovered; the second remained missing with Iran actively searching to capture them.

Apr 2, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Historic Energy Supply Disruption

Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure and restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping have removed over 12 million barrels of oil from global supply since the start of a U.S.-Israel war on Iran.

Apr 2, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Japan-France Strategic Coordination Pact on Hormuz and Critical Supply Chains

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and French President Macron formalized bilateral coordination on restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows currently disrupted by an ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Apr 2, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

France Fuel Shortage Crisis Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered global petroleum supply disruptions, producing localized fuel shortages at hundreds of French filling stations — predominantly TotalEnergies outlets — following the company's price cap introduction that generated consumer panic-buying.

Apr 2, 2025OtherMixed

Trump Predicts Hormuz Reopening Post-Conflict, Citing Iran's Oil Dependency

President Trump publicly stated that full Strait of Hormuz navigation will be restored once the US-Iran conflict ends, framing Iran's need to sell oil as the structural incentive for reopening.

Apr 2, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Disavows US Responsibility for Strait of Hormuz Security

President Trump publicly declared the US bears no responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly tasking oil-dependent nations with protecting their own supply routes.

Apr 2, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

IFRC Warns of Humanitarian Collapse Risk in Iran Amid U.S.-Israeli Airstrike Campaign

Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran since February 28 have produced a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian environment, with 1,900 killed and 21,000 injured.

Apr 2, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Rhetoric Triggers Structural NATO Credibility Crisis

French President Macron publicly accused Trump of undermining NATO by repeatedly signaling doubt about US commitment, marking one of the sharpest transatlantic ruptures since the alliance's founding.

Apr 2, 2025Diplomatic exchangeNarrowing

First Western Vessel Transits Iran-Controlled Strait of Hormuz

The CMA CGM-owned Kribi became the first Western vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz since Iran effectively closed it on March 1, apparently by signaling French ownership to Iranian authorities.

Apr 2, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Ukraine Offers Maritime Security Support for Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Ukraine publicly offered to support partner efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Iran sharply curtailed commercial transit. Kyiv framed its value around Black Sea-derived expertise in convoy protection, naval drones, electronic warfare, and low-cost interception against short-range threats.

Apr 2, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War Reveals Strategic Ambiguity

Trump's first major public address on the Iran war in over a month failed to provide a clear endstate, timeline, or operational logic, instead offering contradictory claims of victory alongside announcements of continued heavy strikes over the next two to three weeks.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month with Ground Invasion Under Consideration

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, has entered its second month with no resolution. Iran has sustained retaliatory strikes on U.S. Gulf bases, including damage to an E-3 Sentry AWACS and KC-135 tankers at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Islamabad Ministerial Quad Establishes Pakistan as US-Iran Facilitation Channel

A four-nation foreign ministers' meeting in Islamabad (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt) produced confirmation that both Washington and Tehran are prepared to engage in diplomacy through a Pakistan-facilitated channel.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Gulf States Lobby Trump to Escalate and Extend US-Israeli War Against Iran

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are privately urging the Trump administration not to end the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran until Iranian leadership is fundamentally altered or its military capabilities — including nuclear program, ballistic missiles, proxy networks, and Hormuz control — are neutralized.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Pakistan-China Diplomatic Coordination on US-Iran Mediation Framework

Pakistani Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar travelled to Beijing to brief Chinese leadership on a quadrilateral meeting (Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) and to align on a five-point framework for potential US-Iran dialogue, including ceasefire, resumed talks, civilian protection, maritime security, and UN Charter adherence.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

IRGC Naval Commander Tangsiri Killed in Israeli Strike

Alireza Tangsiri, IRGC naval commander and architect of Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure strategy, was killed in an Israeli strike. His death represents a significant degradation of Iran's naval command capacity at a moment when Hormuz interdiction is Iran's primary strategic leverage point.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-U.S. War Escalation: Hormuz Blockade and IRGC Corporate Target Threats

Iran's IRGC announced imminent strikes against 17 major U.S. corporations operating in the Middle East, including defense contractors and tech firms, in retaliation for U.S. military operations that have struck over 11,000 targets inside Iran.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Missile and Drone Attacks Resume Against Israel

Houthi forces launched a ballistic missile toward Israeli territory on April 1, following drone attacks on March 30, marking a resumption of direct long-range strikes against Israel. Israeli air defense systems successfully intercepted the projectiles with no reported damage or casualties.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Philippines Requests Iran 'Non-Hostile' Designation for Hormuz Oil Passage

Philippines Foreign Secretary Lazaro formally requested Iran designate the Philippines a 'non-hostile country' and guarantee safe passage for Philippine-flagged oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 1, 2025OtherNarrowing

Iran Formalizes Four-Point Peace Conditions Including Hormuz Jurisdictional Claim

Iran's ambassador to Russia publicly articulated four non-negotiable conditions for peace with the US and Israel, most notably including recognition of Iranian legal jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz — a claim that, if accepted, would grant Tehran formal authority over one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump Signals Iran War Exit While Hormuz Remains Closed

Trump announced a 2-3 week exit timeline from the Iran war, claiming nuclear objectives achieved and regime change accomplished, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, a third carrier strike group deploys, and Iran's foreign minister denies meaningful negotiations.

Apr 1, 2025OtherWidening

Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War

One month into an active US war with Iran, President Trump is delivering a nationally televised address attempting to consolidate domestic political support for the conflict. The speech occurs against a backdrop of declining approval ratings, economic disruption, and diplomatic fallout.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Third Carrier Group and Amphibious Forces Deployed to Gulf Amid Operation Epic Fury

The United States has deployed a third aircraft carrier (USS George HW Bush), two Amphibious Ready Groups, and two Marine Expeditionary Units (~4,700 Marines) to the Middle East, supplementing 50,000 already-stationed troops during the second month of 'Operation Epic Fury.' The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG is conducting daily combat sorties against Iranian targets.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Addresses Nation on Operation Epic Fury, Claims Near-Decisive Degradation of Iran

One month into Operation Epic Fury, Trump publicly claimed Iran's navy, air force, and command leadership have been destroyed or severely degraded, and that missile and drone capabilities have been dramatically curtailed.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Horizontal and Vertical Escalation Campaign Against Gulf and Global Infrastructure

Iran launched a broad escalation campaign targeting energy infrastructure, aviation hubs, AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, desalination facilities, and civilian supply chains across at least 14 countries.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Threatens Ukraine Aid Cutoff to Coerce NATO Hormuz Participation

Trump threatened to terminate the PURL arms procurement mechanism for Ukraine unless European NATO allies committed to joining U.S. military efforts to reopen the Iranian-closed Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

First LNG Transit Attempt Through Strait of Hormuz Since War Onset

The Sohar LNG tanker, an Omani-flagged vessel appearing to carry no cargo, entered the Strait of Hormuz eastbound — the first LNG ship to do so since conflict began February 28.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Houthis Activate Against Israel Amid Bab al-Mandab Disruption Risk

The Houthis launched missiles toward Israel in late March 2025, marking their re-entry into active regional escalation after months of signaling. Critically, they have refrained from attacking maritime traffic through Bab al-Mandab, preserving that option as a coercive instrument.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month

A U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, initiated in late February 2025 following the June 2024 destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities, has entered its second month without achieving its primary objective of regime change.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Multi-Front Regional War: Iran-Israel-Houthi Escalation Following Khamenei Killing

A month-long U.S.-Israeli military campaign has killed Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior Revolutionary Guards commanders, yet failed to suppress Iran's missile and drone capability.

Mar 31, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Iran Partially Reopens Strait of Hormuz and Claims Oil Price Recovery

Iran has selectively reopened the Strait of Hormuz to vessels from aligned states — Russia, India, Iraq, China, and Pakistan — while maintaining closure for US- and Israel-linked shipping.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-Houthi Threat to Close Bab al-Mandab Strait Amid Escalation

Iran has publicly signaled readiness to deploy Houthi proxies to disrupt or close the Bab al-Mandab Strait in response to US-Israeli military pressure, including Trump's threats against Kharg Island.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Fires 850+ Tomahawk Missiles at Iran in Four-Week Campaign

The United States fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran within four weeks, with the bulk expended in the opening days of the operation. This volume substantially exceeds all prior post-Cold War regional operations combined.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Obliteration of Iranian Energy Infrastructure Amid Active War

Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and desalination plants if a deal is not reached 'shortly' and the Strait of Hormuz not reopened.

Mar 31, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

France Denies Airspace for US-Israel Munitions Flights; Israel Halts French Arms Procurement

France denied overflight rights to aircraft carrying military supplies from the US to Israel during Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing joint US-Israel offensive against Iran.

Mar 31, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Algeria Leverages Iran Conflict to Renegotiate European Gas Contracts

Algeria is using disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supply chains — particularly the Iranian strike on Qatari LNG plants — to renegotiate gas export prices with Italy and Spain, seeking a 15–20 percent increase.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

IRGC Launches Child Recruitment Campaign Amid US-Israel War

The IRGC formally announced a recruitment drive targeting Iranians aged 12 and above as volunteer fighters, operationalizing children into checkpoints, patrols, and intelligence tasks during active US-Israeli strike campaigns.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Ukraine Drone Campaign Targets Russian Baltic Oil Export Terminals

Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil export infrastructure at Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports at least four times in one week, targeting terminals that account for approximately 30% of Russian oil exports.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Blockade Amid US-Iran-Israel Conflict

Houthi deputy information minister Mohammed Mansour publicly threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and drive oil prices to $200 per barrel as leverage against European states supporting the Axis of Resistance's adversaries.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Issues April 6 Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz and Energy Infrastructure

Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure — including Kharg Island, oil wells, power plants, and desalination facilities — unless Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz and accepts a peace deal by April 6.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Coordination Meeting on Iran Campaign

CENTCOM chief Admiral Cooper and IDF Chief of Staff Zamir met in Israel to coordinate ongoing operations targeting Iran's military-industrial capacity, following a joint US-Israel strike campaign initiated February 28.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israeli War Against Iran: Power Infrastructure Strikes and Gulf Escalation

Airstrikes knocked out electricity to parts of Tehran and surrounding regions, targeting power infrastructure.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Fifth Week with Multi-Theater Escalation

US-Israeli forces have conducted sustained strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, weapons development sites, educational facilities, and residential areas, killing over 2,076 Iranians including 216 children.

Mar 30, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

G-7 Joint Statement on Energy Market Stability Amid Iran-Gulf Crisis

G-7 economy, finance, and energy ministers convened in Paris to coordinate a response to energy market disruptions caused by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Energy Infrastructure Over Hormuz Dispute

Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's Kharg Island crude export hub, oil wells, power plants, and desalination infrastructure unless Tehran accepted a deal and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran Conflict: Military Buildup, Negotiation Stall, and Strait of Hormuz Contingency Planning

The United States is engaged in a 10-day pause in strikes on Iran following significant degradation of Iranian military capabilities, while simultaneously building up military forces in the Middle East.

Mar 30, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Trump Threatens Total Destruction of Iranian Energy Infrastructure

President Trump issued public ultimatums threatening to destroy Iran's electricity generation plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and desalination infrastructure if no deal is reached on nuclear weapons, the Strait of Hormuz, proxy forces, and missiles.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Fourth Strike Near Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant

Repeated strikes near Bushehr show the war has moved beyond military assets into strategic energy and nuclear-adjacent infrastructure, increasing pressure on Iran's industrial base and deterrent posture.

Mar 29, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals Possible U.S. Seizure of Kharg Island

President Trump publicly indicated the U.S. is considering seizing Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude oil export terminal handling the majority of Iranian oil shipments. The island is defended by the IRGC and hosts approximately 8,000 civilians.

Mar 28, 2025Information-cyberMixed

Russia Provides Iran Satellite Targeting Intelligence on U.S. Military Facilities

Russian satellites systematically photographed U.S. and allied military installations — including Diego Garcia, Prince Sultan Air Base, Al Udeid Air Base, Incirlik Air Base, and Gulf oil infrastructure — and shared imagery with Iran, enabling subsequent Iranian strikes.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Launch First Strikes on Israel Amid Iran Strait of Hormuz Closure

Houthi forces launched their first strikes on Israel in the current conflict cycle on March 28, opening a potential second front of Red Sea disruption coinciding with Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump Defers Strait of Hormuz Reopening Operation

Trump has chosen not to prioritize forcing open the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, accepting continued Iranian control over the chokepoint while focusing on degrading Iran's navy and missile stockpiles.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Operation Epic Fury Against Iran Collapses; Iran Retains Hormuz Control

The US military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury, initiated 28 February 2025) has failed to achieve its stated objectives — regime change, unconditional surrender, nuclear programme destruction, and Hormuz clearance.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthis Fire First Missile Toward Israel Since Iran War Began

Yemen's Houthi movement launched its first missile toward Israel since the onset of the broader Iran war, a rocket intercepted without casualties.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Enter Iran-US-Israel Conflict with Calibrated Attack on Israel

The Houthis launched a confirmed attack on Israel on March 28, formally entering the broader regional conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces after a month on the sidelines.

Mar 27, 2025Institutional reformWidening

P5 Veto Bloc Blocks UNSC Authorization of Force to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Russia, China, and France effectively blocked a Bahrain-drafted UNSC resolution that would have authorized member states to use 'all necessary means' to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 26, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran War: Strait of Hormuz Closure and Ceasefire Negotiations

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran beginning February 28, with Iran interdicting commercial shipping and its parliament legislating fees on waterway passage.

Mar 25, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

US Demands Allies Assume Hormuz Security Burden Amid Iran-Closure Crisis

The Trump administration is publicly and aggressively shifting responsibility for Strait of Hormuz security onto European and global allies, with Trump and Hegseth both singling out the UK by name.

Mar 25, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran War Triggers Hormuz Closure and Global Energy Shock

A U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, removing approximately 13-14 million barrels of oil per day from global markets and driving Brent crude up 59 percent.

Mar 24, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Issues Destruction Ultimatum Over Kharg Island and Iranian Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's Kharg Island oil export terminal, oil wells, power plants, and desalination facilities unless Tehran swiftly agrees to a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 24, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals Willingness to End Iran Military Campaign Without Hormuz Reopening

Trump reportedly told aides he would accept ending the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, decoupling the ceasefire condition from the waterway's reopening.

Mar 23, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Restricts Strait of Hormuz Transit, Reroutes Indian LPG Tanker via Larak Channel

Iran's IRGC exercised physical control over Strait of Hormuz transit, selectively permitting passage only to vessels from designated 'friendly nations' and rerouting them through a narrow channel north of Larak Island after mining the standard shipping lanes.

Mar 22, 2025Institutional reformNarrowing

Taiwan Reverses Nuclear Phase-Out Policy Under Energy Security Pressure

President Lai Ching-te announced on March 22 that Taipower would submit plans to restart two previously decommissioned nuclear reactors — Guosheng No. 2 and Maanshan No. 3 — reversing a core DPP anti-nuclear position held for decades.

Mar 19, 2025Military or coercive actionStable

Houthi Ballistic Missile Launch Toward Israel

A missile was launched from Yemen toward Israeli territory, detected early by the Israeli military which initiated interception procedures. No injuries were reported by Israeli emergency services.

Mar 19, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Iran War Munitions Depletion Reaches Critical Threshold

Within the first 16 days of active US-Iran hostilities, the United States expended approximately 11,294 munitions at an estimated cost of $26 billion, including roughly 46% of its ATACMS inventory and 402 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors.

Mar 19, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

U.S. OFAC Issues Emergency Sanctions Waivers for Iranian and Russian Crude Oil

The U.S. Treasury's OFAC issued emergency general licenses (GLs) providing temporary sanctions relief to Iran and Russia on crude oil and petroleum products already loaded on vessels, effective through April 19.

Mar 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Military Buildup and Planned Limited Ground Operations Against Iran

The US has deployed approximately 7,000 additional troops to the Middle East since the start of the Iran war, with the Pentagon considering a further 10,000.

Mar 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapse and Ras Laffan LNG Facility Attack

An Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility on March 18, 2025, combined with the broader collapse of Strait of Hormuz traffic to 5% of normal flows, has created the largest disruption to global oil and LNG supplies in modern history.

Mar 13, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Bangladesh Fuel Crisis Triggered by Strait of Hormuz Closure

The US-Iran war, initiated in late February 2025, has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most vessels, cutting off approximately 90% of Asia's crude oil supply route.

Mar 6, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK-Led 40-Nation Virtual Coalition Forms to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Britain is convening over 40 nations — including France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, and the UAE — in virtual talks to coordinate diplomatic and eventually military strategies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran since US-Israeli strikes on February 28.

Mar 6, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Iran Asserts Tolling Authority Over Strait of Hormuz and Drafts Monitoring Protocol with Oman

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to non-approved traffic and is now institutionalizing that closure through a draft monitoring protocol with Oman and a proposed $2 million per-voyage toll system.

Mar 5, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Russia-Iran-Ukraine Conflict Convergence and Gulf Arms Diplomacy

Russia has deepened military support to Iran — including intelligence, satellite imagery, targeting data, and drone shipments — while Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil prices benefiting Moscow.

Mar 4, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Saudi Petroline Activated at Full Capacity Amid Hormuz Restriction

Following the outbreak of a US-Israeli war with Iran on February 28, 2025, Saudi Aramco activated emergency plans to maximize throughput on the Petroline East-West Pipeline, reaching near-full capacity of 7 million barrels per day by March 4.

Mar 3, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Drone Strike on Kuwaiti Oil Tanker at Dubai Port

Iran launched a drone strike on the Al Salmi, a fully loaded Kuwaiti crude oil tanker carrying two million barrels of oil anchored at Dubai Port, UAE, causing fire and structural damage.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Strikes Saudi Oil Infrastructure and Gulf States Amid Regional War

Iran has launched over 5,000 drones and missiles against Gulf Arab states since hostilities began, striking Saudi oil fields and refineries in the Eastern Province, the Diplomatic Quarter in Riyadh, and the US Prince Sultan Airbase.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Attacks Saudi Arabia and Gulf States During US-Iran War

Since the outbreak of hostilities, Iran has launched over 5,000 drones and missiles at Gulf Arab states including Saudi Arabia, striking oil fields, refineries, the Riyadh Diplomatic Quarter, and US military infrastructure.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Regional War Spillover Destabilizes Iraq's Multialignment Posture

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has shattered Iraq's years-long multialignment strategy, triggering militia attacks on U.S. bases, Iranian strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan, and U.S. retaliatory strikes on PMF-affiliated infrastructure including Iraqi military sites.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Establishes Effective Control Over Strait of Hormuz

Iran has achieved near-total operational control of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of war with the US and Israel in late February 2025, reducing vessel transits by over 95%.

Mar 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Iran Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge and Russian Sanctions Relief

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, beginning in late February 2025, triggered a global oil price spike from approximately $72 to over $100 per barrel.

Mar 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK-Led 35-Nation Hormuz Reopening Summit Announced

The UK announced a ~35-nation meeting, chaired by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, to coordinate diplomatic and military planning for restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

UK Military Deployment to Gulf Following US-Israeli Strikes on Iran

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February, Iran attacked Gulf infrastructure and disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping, triggering a UK defensive military response.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israel Strike on Iran Triggers Regional Multi-Theater War

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28 triggered a multi-theater war across the Middle East. Iran has retaliated against Israel, U.S. military installations, and Gulf states, while Hezbollah opened a new Lebanese front on March 2.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Following US-Israeli Military Strike

Following US and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 25–30% of global oil supply and 20% of LNG transit.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Blocks Strait of Hormuz Following Conflict Outbreak

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of an unspecified conflict on February 28, halting approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas supply.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Disrupts Global Energy Flows and Compounds China's Economic Crisis

The United States and Israel launched coordinated missile strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering an ongoing conflict that has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Israel-Iran War Reshapes Gulf Strategic Consensus on Iran Containment

Israel's 'Operation Epic Fury,' launched February 28, has initiated a sustained campaign to degrade Iran's military-industrial base, with IDF operations planned for at least three additional weeks targeting defense industry capacity.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Operation Against Iran with IRGC Retaliation

The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against major Iranian cities including Tehran on February 28, triggering a 33-day near-total internet blackout across Iran.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Strait of Hormuz Closure and Gulf Energy Infrastructure Disruption

Iranian military action, in the context of conflict with the US and Israel, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to normal commercial traffic, stranding approximately 1,900 vessels and disrupting 20% of global oil trade.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran De Facto Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Post-US-Israeli Strikes

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran imposed a near-total de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz using missile and drone attacks on vessels, naval mining, and selective negotiated passage. Shipping traffic collapsed by approximately 70 percent initially, then nearly to zero.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Joint Military Campaign Against Iran: Interim Strategic Assessment

The United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran beginning February 28, targeting ballistic missile infrastructure, naval assets, and nuclear facilities.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Following U.S.-Israeli Military Action

Following a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran initiated February 28, 2025, Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, severing a critical jet fuel supply artery for global aviation. Kerosene prices doubled to approximately €1,500 per metric ton.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran: Mid-War Assessment

The United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran beginning February 28, 2025, targeting ballistic missile infrastructure, naval forces, nuclear sites, and regime leadership.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Asserts Gatekeeping Control Over Strait of Hormuz During U.S.-Israeli Air Campaign

Since the U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran began Feb. 28, Iran has leveraged its island infrastructure — Larak, Qeshm, the Tunbs, Abu Musa, and Kharg — to redirect and screen vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israeli Air Campaign Degrades Iranian Conventional Military While Asymmetric Capacity Persists

A sustained US-Israeli air campaign launched February 28 has struck over 13,000 targets in Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and much of the senior leadership, and destroying an estimated 80% of Iranian air defense systems.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israel Strikes on Iranian Medical and Public Health Infrastructure

Since February 28, US and Israeli forces have conducted repeated strikes on Iranian healthcare infrastructure, including the Pasteur Institute (a century-old vaccine and infectious disease research centre), a major pharmaceutical manufacturer, multiple hospitals, and a Red Crescent warehouse.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S. Missile Strike on Minab Elementary School

Multiple U.S. missiles struck the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, killing an indeterminate number of children and teachers.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

US-Israeli Air Campaign Against Iran Fails to Trigger Internal Collapse

The article describes a US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran framed by its backers as a catalyst for domestic uprising.

Jan 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S. Capture of Maduro and Venezuelan Regime Co-optation

The United States conducted a covert military operation on January 3, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and replacing him with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, converting Venezuela from a regional adversary into what the Trump administration frames as a compliant vassal state.

Jan 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthi Missile Launch Toward Israel in Iran Solidarity

Ansar Allah (Houthis) launched missiles toward Israel, following through on earlier threats made since the start of the US-Israel conflict with Iran approximately one month prior.

Jan 1, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Threat to Close Bab el-Mandab Strait Conditional on Gulf State Participation

Houthi Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour publicly threatens to close the Bab el-Mandab strait if Gulf states join US-Israeli military operations against Iran or Lebanon.

Jan 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Triggers Chinese Strategic Recalculation

A U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has escalated into a regional conflagration, directly threatening China's energy supply chains through potential Strait of Hormuz disruption and destabilizing the global trade architecture Beijing depends on.

Jan 1, 2025OtherNarrowing

PRC Energy Resilience Architecture Reaches Strategic Sufficiency Threshold

Chinese expert consensus has coalesced around the position that PRC energy security now exceeds the threshold at which maritime chokepoint interdiction — via Hormuz or Malacca — constitutes a credible coercive instrument.

Jan 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UAE Shifts to Confrontational Posture Against Iran, Advocates Multinational Hormuz Operation

The UAE has abandoned its prior détente with Iran and repositioned as the Arab state most aligned with the Trump administration in confronting Tehran during an ongoing military conflict now in its second month.

Oct 7, 2024Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Iran Conditions Houthi Red Sea Campaign on US Escalation

Iran is directing the Houthis to prepare for a renewed Red Sea shipping campaign contingent on further US military action against Iran, signaling that Tehran is using its Yemeni proxy as a retaliatory lever rather than an autonomous actor.

Apr 1, 2024Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Ballistic Missile Strike on Southern Israel — Third 'Holy Jihad' Operation

Houthi forces (Ansar Allah) launched ballistic missiles targeting southern Israel, framing it as their third operation within the 'Holy Jihad Battle' campaign.

Mar 28, 2024Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Record Energy Sector Outperformance Amid Middle East War and Venezuela Regime Change

US and Canadian energy equities are posting record quarterly outperformance — S&P 500 Energy up 39% vs.

Mar 1, 2024Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Saudi Arabia Reroutes Crude via East-West Pipeline Amid Hormuz Disruption

Following disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia rerouted crude exports through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, lifting Bab el-Mandeb throughput to nearly 4 million bpd — the highest since October 2023.

Jan 15, 2024Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Iran Hormuz Insurance Coercion Exposes Taiwan Strait Economic Warfare Vulnerability

Iran's missile and drone campaign against Hormuz shipping has functionally closed a fifth of global oil supply not through direct interdiction but by causing insurers to withdraw coverage from transiting vessels.

Jan 1, 2024Legal changeMixed

UNSC Draft Resolution on Defensive Force in Strait of Hormuz

The UN Security Council is preparing to vote on a draft resolution that would authorize 'defensive' use of force to protect commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has been conducting disruptive actions.

Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Israel Conducts Weekend Air Campaign Against Iranian and Hezbollah Military Infrastructure

Israel claims to have executed a large-scale air campaign against military targets in Iran and Lebanon, including Iranian air defense systems, ballistic missile production facilities, IRGC weapons storage, and Hezbollah command and launch infrastructure.