All Conflicts
EscalatedGlobalInterstate2010–presentReviewed Apr 5

Global Cyber and Information Warfare

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Global cyber and influence warfare is intensifying as state actors probe infrastructure and shape allied politics

Escalation Trace

Global cyber and influence warfare is intensifying as state actors probe infrastructure and

4 phases · 11 events
Apr 2025Apr 2026

Theater

Focus Region

Global

Geo-Linked Events

12

2010

The Stuxnet worm, jointly developed by the US and Israel, destroyed roughly 1,000 Iranian nuclear centrifuges at Natanz, marking the first publicly confirmed use of malware as a physical sabotage weapon against state infrastructure.

2013

NSA contractor Edward Snowden leaked documents revealing the scale of US and allied signals intelligence collection, exposing programs like PRISM and triggering a global debate that reshaped norms around state cyber espionage.

2014

North Korean hackers breached Sony Pictures, destroying data and leaking files in retaliation for a satirical film; the same year, Russian hackers compromised US State Department and White House unclassified networks.

2016

Russian military intelligence (GRU) hacked the Democratic National Committee and conducted a broad influence operation across social media platforms, directly interfering in the US presidential election and setting a new benchmark for information warfare.

2017

The NotPetya malware, attributed to Russian GRU, spread globally from Ukrainian targets and caused an estimated $10 billion in damages to shipping, pharmaceutical, and financial companies, the costliest cyberattack on record.

2020

A Russian SVR supply-chain attack compromised SolarWinds Orion software, giving hackers access to networks at nine US federal agencies and roughly 100 private companies for up to nine months before detection.

2021

Chinese state hackers exploited Microsoft Exchange Server zero-days to compromise an estimated 250,000 servers worldwide; separately, a ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline—enabled by criminal groups operating freely from Russia—shut down fuel supplies across the US East Coast.

2023

Chinese actors tracked as Volt Typhoon were discovered pre-positioning malware inside US power grids, water systems, and communications infrastructure, with assessments indicating preparation for disruptive strikes in the event of conflict over Taiwan.

All major state actors self-sponsor; DPRK uses cybercrime proceeds to fund weapons programs

Russia uses criminal hacker groups (Sandworm, APT28, Cozy Bear) with plausible deniability; China leverages Volt Typhoon, Salt Typhoon for pre-positioning in critical infrastructure; DPRK Lazarus Group conducts financial theft

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Explosion Targets Pro-Israel Center in Nijkerk

A low-yield explosive device was placed outside the gate of the Christians for Israel center in Nijkerk, causing limited physical damage but signaling coercive reach against pro-Israeli civil infrastructure in Europe.

Apr 4, 2026Information-cyberNarrowing

US and Russian Support Networks Back Orbán Ahead of Hungarian Election

Ahead of Hungary's election, the article describes parallel external efforts to improve Viktor Orbán's political survival: overt political endorsement from the Trump administration and alleged Russian intelligence-linked disinformation activity targeting his opponent.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Israel escalated coercive pressure on Iran by threatening attacks on its energy infrastructure unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 1, 2026Information-cyberNarrowing

Africa Politology Sahel Influence Campaign Exposed

Leaked documents from Africa Politology — a Russian influence network originally established by Wagner's Prigozhin and later absorbed by Russian foreign intelligence — detail a coordinated multi-year campaign to entrench Russian influence across the Sahel and adjacent states.

Sep 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

China Intelligence Exploitation of US-Iran Conflict (Operation Roaring Lion)

As US and Israeli forces conduct high-intensity multi-domain operations against Iran (Operation Roaring Lion/Epic Fury), China is conducting systematic intelligence collection across electronic, imagery, and open-source domains to extract lessons on US operational signatures, platform vulnerabilities, AI and EW employment, and strategic decision-making under Trump.

Jul 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

U.S.-China Strategic Stalemate and Parallel Decoupling Race

Following the Trump-Xi summit, U.S.-China relations have stabilized into a fragile truce that rolled back certain tariffs but left structural friction intact.

Jun 30, 2025Institutional reformWidening

U.S. State Department Orders Embassies to Counter Foreign Influence Campaigns

The State Department issued a diplomatic cable signed by Secretary Rubio directing all U.S. embassies and consulates to intensify counter-influence operations against foreign adversary disinformation.

May 8, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

PRC-Russia Eurasian Bloc Institutionalization, 2022–2026

From 2022 to early 2026, the PRC-Russia relationship transitioned from tactical alignment to functional bloc formation, anchored by financial system integration bypassing SWIFT, energy corridor expansion, military-industrial supply chain coupling, and coordinated multilateral positioning through SCO and BRICS.

May 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Amid Structural U.S.-China Strategic Divergence

The anticipated mid-May 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing will likely produce a prolonged trade truce but no structural resolution to the bilateral rivalry.

Apr 16, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

IRGC Issues Threat Against US Corporate Infrastructure in the Gulf

The IRGC publicly listed 18 US technology and manufacturing companies operating in the Gulf — including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, and Boeing — threatening strikes against them in retaliation for continued US military operations against Iran.

Apr 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S. Airstrikes Target Iranian Infrastructure; Iran Strikes Gulf State Facilities

U.S. airstrikes destroyed Iran's largest bridge and a major public health facility, while U.S.-Israeli strikes continued against Iranian targets. Iran retaliated by striking a Kuwaiti desalination plant and oil refinery, and debris from an intercepted missile caused UAE gas facility closures.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel-Iran War: Infrastructure Targeting Phase and Strait of Hormuz Blockade

US and Israeli forces have degraded approximately 70 percent of Iran's steel production capacity and struck its tallest bridge, while Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas transit.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran-Israel Infrastructure War Escalation with Hormuz Blockade

The US-Israeli-Iran war has escalated into systematic mutual infrastructure strikes targeting steel plants, bridges, power grids, refineries, and desalination complexes across the region. Iran has virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas transit.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month

A U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, initiated in late February 2025 following the June 2024 destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities, has entered its second month without achieving its primary objective of regime change.

Jan 27, 2025Information-cyberNarrowing

Iranian Intelligence Network Exposed Operating Under Press TV Cover in UK

Iranian state-linked operatives have been using Press TV's UK media presence as cover for intelligence gathering, propaganda dissemination, and target identification against dissidents and the Jewish community.

Jan 20, 2025Institutional reformWidening

U.S. Federal Research Funding Disruption Under Trump Administration

The Trump administration froze, terminated, or disrupted $1.4 billion in university research grants, attempted to shift funding allocation from merit-based peer review to political favoritism, and defunded research in politically disfavored fields including climate science and mRNA vaccines.

Jan 1, 2025OtherWidening

Freedom House Freedom in the World 2026 Report Release

Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World 2026 report documents the 20th consecutive year of global democratic decline, with 54 countries deteriorating against 35 improving.

Jan 1, 2025Information-cyberWidening

Escalating Foreign Targeting of U.S. Energy Infrastructure

Foreign state actors — primarily China and Iran — have pre-positioned cyber capabilities within U.S. energy infrastructure and escalated physical and cyber threat postures amid rising geopolitical tensions.