StateEurasiaRUSDeclining

Russia

Russia projects consolidated domestic control paired with declining external influence capacity.

PF Score

72

1

Authority

72

Reach

72

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

72Overall1

Russia's Ukraine strike tempo halts its recent reach slippage.

72Auth

Wartime mobilization still absorbs deep-strike disruption.

72Reach

Ukraine escalation preserves external coercive relevance.

Dependency Chain
RussiaChina (CCP)
Depth: Patron

Vladimir Putin

President of the Russian Federation

In power since 1999 (PM then President).

NewsApr 5, 2026

Ukraine's drone campaign continues to erode Russia's practical monopoly on escalation by imposing costs on energy and industrial infrastructure deep inside Russian territory.

WideningMinor Update
Al Jazeera·NewsApr 5, 2026

Repeated strikes near Bushehr move the Iran-Israel-US confrontation into a higher-risk coercive phase where critical nuclear-adjacent infrastructure is being used as leverage.

WideningMajor Update
AFP·NewsApr 5, 2026

The successful US extraction of a second downed airman from inside Iran is a concrete indicator that Washington can penetrate Iranian battlespace despite Tehran's claims of wartime control.

WideningMajor Update