All Conflicts
EscalatedGlobalInterstate2022–presentReviewed Apr 5

Global Sanctions and Economic Warfare

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Global sanctions warfare has merged with direct regional war, fracturing energy and nonproliferation order

Escalation Trace

Global sanctions warfare has merged with direct regional war

7 phases · 55 events
Apr 2025Apr 2026

Theater

Focus Region

Global

Geo-Linked Events

50

2014

Russia's annexation of Crimea triggers the first major Western sanctions package, freezing assets and banning travel for Russian officials; the EU and US coordinate restrictions on Russian energy and finance sectors.

2018

The US withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sweeping sanctions under a "maximum pressure" campaign, cutting Iran off from SWIFT and targeting oil exports; Iran and North Korea deepen sanctions-evasion cooperation through illicit ship-to-ship transfers and cryptocurrency channels.

2022

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine prompts the largest Western sanctions mobilization in history: over 1,000 individuals sanctioned, Russian central bank assets frozen, and Russia expelled from SWIFT, triggering a coordinated Russian-Chinese push to settle bilateral trade in yuan and rubles.

 

The US CHIPS and Science Act and expanded Export Administration Regulations cut off Russia and China from advanced semiconductors and manufacturing equipment, extending economic warfare into the technology domain.

2023

Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea formalize sanctions-evasion networks, with North Korean munitions flowing to Russia and Iran supplying Shahed drones; the G7 responds with secondary sanctions targeting third-country entities facilitating transfers.

 

BRICS expands to include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, and Ethiopia, accelerating de-dollarization discussions and proposals for a BRICS payment system to reduce exposure to US financial infrastructure.

2024

The US Treasury imposes secondary sanctions on foreign banks transacting with Russia, pressuring Chinese and Turkish financial institutions and forcing several to curtail Russia-linked transactions under threat of dollar system exclusion.

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Russia-Iran-DPRK arms and technology exchange networks; China serving as primary sanctions relief valve for Russia; BRI and yuan-denominated trade used to bypass SWIFT

Apr 4, 2026Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports Under Temporary U.S. Sanctions Relief

India's refiners resumed purchases of Iranian crude and LPG after a multi-year halt, enabled by temporary U.S. sanctions relief and acute supply disruption in the Gulf. The move restores a blocked export outlet for Iran while reducing India's vulnerability to chokepoint disruption at Hormuz.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Energy Supply Shock

An ongoing war involving Iran has effectively halted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing transit from approximately 20 million barrels per day to near zero and triggering acute energy shortages across Asia and Africa.

Apr 1, 2026Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Iranian Rial Surges Fourfold Against Pakistani Rupee Amid Gulf War

The Iranian rial has appreciated nearly 300% against the Pakistani rupee since the onset of a Gulf war, reversing prior currency collapse induced by US sanctions imposed in early 2026.

Apr 1, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

China Endorses Pakistan-Led Five-Point Diplomatic Framework to End US-Israeli War on Iran

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing and secured China's endorsement of a five-point peace framework calling for immediate cessation of hostilities, US-Iran talks, Strait of Hormuz security guarantees, and restraint from all parties.

Apr 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

UK Deploys Rapid Sentry Air Defence to Kuwait Amid Iranian Drone Strikes

Iran-attributed drone strikes hit Kuwaiti critical infrastructure — a power and desalination plant and the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery — prompting the UK to deploy the Rapid Sentry short-range air defence system to Kuwait.

Mar 31, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

G7 Emergency Energy Coordination Amid Iran War Disruption

G7 finance and energy ministers convened an emergency teleconference, issuing a joint statement pledging 'all necessary measures' to stabilize energy markets disrupted by the war in Iran. The IEA's 32 members had already agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

Mar 30, 2026Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Russia Delivers Sanctioned Oil Tanker Cargo to Cuba Amid U.S. Blockade

Russia deployed the sanctioned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin to deliver 730,000 barrels of crude to Cuba, the first shipment since Venezuela's supply chain collapsed following the U.S. seizure of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026.

Mar 29, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Global Nuclear Proliferation Cascade Accelerates Post-Iran Strikes

US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, combined with the collapse of US-Russia arms control treaties and Trump's selective non-proliferation enforcement, have triggered the most serious global proliferation debate in decades.

Mar 28, 2026Legal changeMixed

Kassis Conviction Exposes Iran-Hezbollah Weapons-for-Drugs Network

A U.S. district court in Virginia convicted Antoine Kassis on narco-terrorism conspiracy and material support for the ELN, following a two-year DEA sting operation.

Mar 27, 2026Sanctions or economic measureMixed

China Launches Reciprocal Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

China's Commerce Ministry opened two trade investigations mirroring U.S. Section 301 probes into Chinese practices: one targeting U.S. supply-chain disruptions, tech-export controls, and investment restrictions; a second focusing on U.S. barriers to Chinese renewable-energy products.

Mar 27, 2026Legal changeMixed

Iran Formalizes Strait of Hormuz Toll Regime and De Facto Blockade

Iran's Parliament is advancing legislation to institutionalize fees for Strait of Hormuz transit, converting an informal IRGC-enforced clearance system into a formal sovereignty claim over a passage treated under international law as an international waterway.

Mar 5, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

U.S.-South Korea Alliance Structural Strain Amid Iran War and Trade Disputes

The U.S.-Iran war has imposed severe economic costs on South Korea via Strait of Hormuz blockade, cutting over 70% of its crude oil imports and threatening semiconductor supply chains through helium shortages.

Mar 1, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

China Pursues Economic Statecraft Offensive Under Donroe Doctrine Conditions

China is systematically leveraging U.S. alliance disruption under the Trump administration to deepen economic ties with key American partners including the UK, Canada, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.

Mar 1, 2026Sanctions or economic measureMixed

PRC Civilian Manufacturing Ecosystem Sustains Iran Drone Campaign Under Western Sanctions

Iran's large-scale drone campaign in the Persian Gulf in March 2026 is structurally underpinned by a decentralized network of Chinese micro-enterprises supplying propulsion systems, precision components, manufacturing equipment, and electronics.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Blocks Strait of Hormuz Amid US-Israeli Military Campaign

Following the commencement of US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas flows. Brent crude surged over 40 percent above pre-war levels, exceeding $116/barrel at peak.

Feb 24, 2026Institutional reformWidening

European Defense Mobilization Gap Assessment — Year Five of Russia-Ukraine War

As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, a structural assessment of European defense readiness reveals a persistent gap between available resources and actual mobilization.

Jan 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Russia Breaks U.S. Naval Blockade of Cuba via Fuel Tanker Dispatch

Russia dispatched the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin to Cuba under a humanitarian fuel aid framing, directly testing the U.S. de facto naval blockade imposed as part of the Trump administration's broader coercive campaign against Havana.

Jul 17, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

UAE Systematic Crackdown on Iranian Diaspora and Institutions

The UAE has revoked visas for Iranian nationals, banned Iranian passport holders from entry or transit, and closed key Iranian institutions including a hospital, schools, and a social club in Dubai.

Jul 17, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Deploys Sanctioned Tankers to Break U.S. Fuel Blockade of Cuba

Russia is actively circumventing U.S. sanctions by dispatching sanctioned tankers to supply Cuba with oil amid a U.S.-imposed fuel blockade that has produced widespread blackouts. The first tanker, Anatoly Kolodkin, completed delivery at Matanzas; a second vessel is being loaded.

Jul 14, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Iran-Pakistan Hormuz Transit Agreement for Pakistani-Flagged Vessels

Iran concluded a bilateral arrangement granting safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to up to 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels, leveraging its de facto control over the strait to reward a diplomatic partner.

Jul 14, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

India Approves $25 Billion Military Modernization Including Additional S-400 Acquisition

India's Defense Acquisition Council approved a $25 billion package encompassing five additional S-400 Triumf air defense systems from Russia, 60 remotely piloted strike aircraft, and 60 multirole transport aircraft.

Jul 10, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Macron Indo-Pacific State Visits: Japan and South Korea Diplomatic Alignment

French President Macron conducted back-to-back state visits to Tokyo and Seoul, producing coordinated positions on Strait of Hormuz freedom of navigation, critical mineral supply chain resilience, civilian nuclear cooperation, and AI.

Jul 10, 2025Legal changeNarrowing

Iran Formalizes Strait of Hormuz Oversight Protocol with Oman

Iran's deputy foreign minister announced drafting of a bilateral protocol with Oman to institutionalize joint oversight of Strait of Hormuz transit, extending a de facto blockade posture into a formal legal-administrative framework.

Jul 10, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

UK-Led Allied Coalition Convenes Hormuz Reopening Strategy Meeting

More than 40 US allies held a UK-convened virtual meeting to coordinate responses to the Strait of Hormuz closure, encompassing diplomatic outreach to Tehran, potential sanctions, and military planning for post-conflict naval deployment.

Jul 10, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Dispatches Second Oil Tanker to Cuba Under US Fuel Blockade

Russia announced a second oil tanker bound for Cuba days after the first Russian-flagged vessel delivered approximately 700,000 barrels of crude — the first significant oil delivery to the island in three months.

Jul 10, 2025Diplomatic exchangeNarrowing

Russia-India High-Level Economic and Energy Cooperation Talks

Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov held senior-level meetings in New Delhi with Prime Minister Modi, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, NSA Doval, and Finance Minister Sitharaman to expand bilateral cooperation across energy, fertilisers, nuclear power, critical minerals, and defence.

Jul 10, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Zarif Floats Comprehensive Iran-US Peace Framework

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's former foreign minister with no current official role, publicly proposed a comprehensive peace framework in Foreign Affairs magazine offering nuclear enrichment limits (below 3.67% purity), permanent IAEA monitoring, Hormuz reopening, and US oil sector access in exchange for sanctions relief, a non-aggression pact, and war compensation.

Jul 9, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Trump Threatens Strikes on Iranian Power and Oil Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's electrical generation plants and oil facilities if Tehran refuses a nuclear deal.

Jul 9, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Declares Iran War Objectives 'Nearing Completion' in Nationally Televised Address

After 32 days of U.S. military operations, Trump publicly declared Iran is 'no longer a threat' and that strategic objectives are nearing completion, while announcing continued heavy strikes over the next two to three weeks.

Jul 9, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel War with Iran Enters Endgame Search Phase

One month into the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, the conflict has produced over 5,000 casualties — roughly 3,750 in Iran and 1,300 in Lebanon — with a second Israeli front opened against Hezbollah. US fuel prices have surpassed $4/gallon, creating domestic political pressure.

Jul 2, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Lapis Lazuli Corridor Extension and Competing Central Asian Transit Architecture Development

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Pakistan are advancing plans to extend the Lapis Lazuli Corridor into a continental transit artery linking South and East Asia to Europe via the South Caucasus, bypassing both Russian-linked north-south routes and Iranian transit infrastructure.

Jul 1, 2025Institutional reformWidening

U.S. Liberal Order Dismantlement Under Trump and Iran Military Action

Acharya identifies the Trump administration's simultaneous dismantlement of free trade norms, multilateral institutions, democracy promotion, and alliance commitments as the terminal phase of the U.S.-led liberal international order.

Jul 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

U.S.-China Strategic Stalemate and Parallel Decoupling Race

Following the Trump-Xi summit, U.S.-China relations have stabilized into a fragile truce that rolled back certain tariffs but left structural friction intact.

Jun 27, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Activates Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Coercive Economic Weapon

Iran has operationalized control of the Strait of Hormuz as a physical blockade, disrupting over a fifth of global oil supply and triggering cascading effects on natural gas, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor production dependent on Gulf-sourced inputs.

Jun 25, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump Abandons HEU Extraction Mission, Iran Retains Enriched Uranium Stockpile

Following the US-Israeli offensive against Iran, Trump publicly declined to pursue extraction of Iran's 440kg HEU stockpile, citing depth and satellite monitoring as sufficient safeguards.

Jun 22, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Claims U.S. Strikes Achieved Regime Change and Nuclear Elimination in Iran

Trump publicly claimed that U.S. strikes have achieved regime change in Iran and eliminated its nuclear capability, citing overnight strikes near Isfahan's nuclear facility. He asserted Iran has 'no strength left' and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen automatically upon U.S. withdrawal.

Jun 20, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Zarif Calls for Iran-US Deal via Foreign Affairs Op-Ed

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's former foreign minister and architect of the 2015 JCPOA, publicly urged Tehran to negotiate a comprehensive deal with Washington, offering nuclear concessions and Strait of Hormuz reopening in exchange for full sanctions relief and a nonaggression pact.

Jun 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Declares Core Strategic Objectives Nearing Completion in US-Iran War

Trump's first national address since the US-Iran war began signals the conflict is in an advanced but unresolved phase.

Jun 17, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Argentina Designates IRGC as Terrorist Organization and Expels Iranian Diplomat

Argentina designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, enabling financial sanctions and operational restrictions against the group.

Jun 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Pakistan Positions Itself as US-Iran Conflict Mediator

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced that both the US and Iran had expressed confidence in Pakistan to facilitate peace talks, positioning Islamabad as a mediator in the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Exposes Russian Strategic Impotence

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has structurally undermined Russia's claim to global power-broker status by demonstrating Moscow's inability to protect a key client after 25 years of cultivation.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Operation Epic Fury: U.S. Counter-Industrial Campaign Against Iran

The United States, under Operation Epic Fury, has launched a systematic campaign to destroy Iran's military-industrial complex — targeting not just deployed forces and launch systems but the production infrastructure generating Iran's drone and missile arsenal.

May 19, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Civilian Energy and Water Infrastructure

President Trump issued a public threat via social media to destroy Iranian electricity plants, oil facilities, and potentially desalination infrastructure if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

May 15, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Strait of Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Fertilizer Supply Chain

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one month into the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, has disrupted approximately one-third of globally seaborne fertilizer trade, including ammonia, urea, and sulfur shipments.

May 8, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

PRC-Russia Eurasian Bloc Institutionalization, 2022–2026

From 2022 to early 2026, the PRC-Russia relationship transitioned from tactical alignment to functional bloc formation, anchored by financial system integration bypassing SWIFT, energy corridor expansion, military-industrial supply chain coupling, and coordinated multilateral positioning through SCO and BRICS.

May 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Military Escalation Against Iran Accelerates China's Structural Power Position

US military engagement against Iran, framed as degrading a pillar of Chinese-Russian Eurasian influence, is assessed as structurally counterproductive.

May 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Shadow Fleet Starlink and Crypto Evasion Infrastructure Exposed

An investigation reveals Russia's shadow fleet of over 3,000 tankers uses Starlink terminals, cryptocurrency payroll systems, and intermediary networks routed through China, Namibia, and Oman to evade Western sanctions and sustain oil revenues funding its invasion of Ukraine.

May 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Amid Structural U.S.-China Strategic Divergence

The anticipated mid-May 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing will likely produce a prolonged trade truce but no structural resolution to the bilateral rivalry.

Apr 29, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Strait of Hormuz Closure and US-Iran War Escalation with Uncertain Exit

A US-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of seaborne oil transits. Brent crude has surged ~60% and US gasoline has topped $4 per gallon.

Apr 17, 2025Diplomatic exchangeNarrowing

Cuba Announces Release of 2,010 Prisoners Under US Coercive Pressure

Cuba's Communist government announced the release of 2,010 prisoners, framed domestically as a sovereign Holy Week gesture but occurring under direct US economic coercion including a near-total oil blockade.

Apr 16, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Putin Issues EU-EEU Incompatibility Warning to Armenia

At bilateral talks in Moscow, Putin publicly framed EU accession and EEU membership as mutually exclusive for Armenia, signaling a structural choice Armenia must eventually make.

Apr 10, 2025Political transitionMixed

Rodríguez Consolidates Post-Maduro Authority in Venezuela

Following Maduro's January 2025 capture by US special forces, Delcy Rodríguez has moved to consolidate power through symbolic de-Chavezification, selective prisoner releases, an amnesty law, and cabinet restructuring.

Apr 8, 2025Information-cyberMixed

Leak of Szijjártó-Lavrov Calls Alleging Hungarian Sanctions Coordination with Moscow

Leaked phone recordings allegedly show Hungarian FM Szijjártó pledging to help Lavrov amend EU sanctions and declaring personal availability to Moscow.

Apr 7, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Trump Grants Humanitarian Exemption for Russian Oil Delivery to Cuba

The Trump administration granted a case-by-case exemption allowing a sanctioned Russian tanker to deliver 730,000 barrels of crude to Cuba, the first oil shipment to the island since January.

Apr 7, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Establishes Permission-Based Control Over Strait of Hormuz

Iran, through IRGC operations, has reduced commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz by 95%, removing approximately 15 million barrels of oil per day from global markets.

Apr 3, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

US Strike Destroys Tehran-Karaj B1 Suspension Bridge

US forces struck the B1 suspension bridge connecting Tehran and Karaj — a $400M, 136m-high flagship infrastructure project — collapsing its central span and killing two people.

Apr 3, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

China Rare-Earth Export Controls and Hormuz Closure Expose U.S. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

China's rare-earth export licensing system and Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure have emerged as effective counter-coercion tools against U.S. economic and military aggression.

Apr 2, 2025OtherMixed

Trump Predicts Hormuz Reopening Post-Conflict, Citing Iran's Oil Dependency

President Trump publicly stated that full Strait of Hormuz navigation will be restored once the US-Iran conflict ends, framing Iran's need to sell oil as the structural incentive for reopening.

Apr 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Sanctioned Russian Tanker Delivers Crude Oil to Cuba Amid US Blockade

The Anatoly Kolodkin, a sanctioned Russian crude tanker, docked at Matanzas, Cuba, delivering 730,000 barrels — the first crude shipment since Venezuela's Maduro was removed, severing Cuba's primary energy lifeline.

Apr 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Delivers Humanitarian Oil Shipment to Cuba Amid US Pressure Campaign

Russia delivered 100,000 tons of oil to Cuba via the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, framed as humanitarian cargo under international maritime law protections.

Apr 1, 2025OtherWidening

Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War

One month into an active US war with Iran, President Trump is delivering a nationally televised address attempting to consolidate domestic political support for the conflict. The speech occurs against a backdrop of declining approval ratings, economic disruption, and diplomatic fallout.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Putin-Pashinyan Moscow Meeting: Russian Pressure on Armenian Electoral and Trade Alignment

Putin hosted Armenian PM Pashinyan in Moscow, using the meeting to publicly signal Russian interest in the participation of pro-Russian political forces in Armenia's upcoming elections and to warn against simultaneous EAEU and EU customs union membership.

Apr 1, 2025Legal changeNarrowing

Argentina Designates IRGC as Terrorist Organization

Argentina formally added the IRGC to its Public Registry of Persons and Entities Linked to Acts of Terrorism and its Financing, activating financial sanctions and operational restrictions.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Speech Frames Iran Nuclear Program as War Justification and Terminal Condition

President Trump delivered a 20-minute speech on April 1, 2025, invoking nuclear justification for the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran over 20 times, referencing Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer as having significantly degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.

Apr 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Structural Collapse of US-China Economic Interdependence as Geopolitical Stabilizer

The cumulative effect of US tariffs, export controls on advanced chips, Chinese retaliatory restrictions on rare-earth exports, and mutual industrial policy escalation has severed the commercial interdependence that previously moderated US-China strategic rivalry.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Ukraine Drone Campaign Targets Russian Baltic Oil Export Terminals

Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil export infrastructure at Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports at least four times in one week, targeting terminals that account for approximately 30% of Russian oil exports.

Mar 30, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Sanctioned Russian Tanker Breaches U.S. Oil Blockade on Cuba

The sanctioned Russian-flagged vessel Anatoly Kolodkin entered Cuban waters carrying approximately 700,000 barrels of Russian Urals crude, ending a three-month oil supply vacuum caused by U.S. coercive pressure on Venezuela, Mexico, and other suppliers.

Mar 30, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Trump Administration Permits Sanctioned Russian Tanker to Deliver Oil to Cuba

The Trump administration allowed a sanctioned Russian tanker carrying 100,000 metric tons of crude oil to deliver fuel to Cuba, citing humanitarian grounds, while officially denying any formal policy change.

Mar 30, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

G-7 Joint Statement on Energy Market Stability Amid Iran-Gulf Crisis

G-7 economy, finance, and energy ministers convened in Paris to coordinate a response to energy market disruptions caused by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Mar 28, 2025Information-cyberMixed

Russia Provides Iran Satellite Targeting Intelligence on U.S. Military Facilities

Russian satellites systematically photographed U.S. and allied military installations — including Diego Garcia, Prince Sultan Air Base, Al Udeid Air Base, Incirlik Air Base, and Gulf oil infrastructure — and shared imagery with Iran, enabling subsequent Iranian strikes.

Mar 25, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran War Triggers Hormuz Closure and Global Energy Shock

A U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, removing approximately 13-14 million barrels of oil per day from global markets and driving Brent crude up 59 percent.

Mar 19, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

U.S. OFAC Issues Emergency Sanctions Waivers for Iranian and Russian Crude Oil

The U.S. Treasury's OFAC issued emergency general licenses (GLs) providing temporary sanctions relief to Iran and Russia on crude oil and petroleum products already loaded on vessels, effective through April 19.

Mar 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapse and Ras Laffan LNG Facility Attack

An Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility on March 18, 2025, combined with the broader collapse of Strait of Hormuz traffic to 5% of normal flows, has created the largest disruption to global oil and LNG supplies in modern history.

Mar 6, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Iran Asserts Tolling Authority Over Strait of Hormuz and Drafts Monitoring Protocol with Oman

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to non-approved traffic and is now institutionalizing that closure through a draft monitoring protocol with Oman and a proposed $2 million per-voyage toll system.

Mar 5, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Russia-Iran-Ukraine Conflict Convergence and Gulf Arms Diplomacy

Russia has deepened military support to Iran — including intelligence, satellite imagery, targeting data, and drone shipments — while Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil prices benefiting Moscow.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Establishes Effective Control Over Strait of Hormuz

Iran has achieved near-total operational control of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of war with the US and Israel in late February 2025, reducing vessel transits by over 95%.

Mar 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Iran Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge and Russian Sanctions Relief

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, beginning in late February 2025, triggered a global oil price spike from approximately $72 to over $100 per barrel.

Feb 18, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Delivers Oil to Cuba Under US Humanitarian Exemption

A sanctioned Russian tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, delivered approximately 700,000 barrels of crude oil to Matanzas, Cuba — the island's first shipment since January 9. The Trump administration framed the exemption as humanitarian and case-by-case, not a policy shift.

Feb 18, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russian Tanker Breaks US Oil Blockade on Cuba

The Anatoly Kolodkin, a Russian-owned tanker, docked at Matanzas port carrying approximately 730,000 barrels of crude oil, marking the first crude shipment to Cuba since early January 2025.

Feb 6, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Dispatches Second Oil Tanker to Cuba Under US Fuel Blockade

Russia is loading a second oil tanker bound for Cuba after a US-imposed fuel blockade severed the island's supply chain following Venezuela's political collapse. The first Russian tanker, carrying 730,000 barrels of crude, arrived at Matanzas on Tuesday.

Jan 20, 2025Institutional reformWidening

U.S. Federal Research Funding Disruption Under Trump Administration

The Trump administration froze, terminated, or disrupted $1.4 billion in university research grants, attempted to shift funding allocation from merit-based peer review to political favoritism, and defunded research in politically disfavored fields including climate science and mRNA vaccines.

Jan 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

US Grants Humanitarian Exemption for Sanctioned Russian Tanker to Deliver Oil to Cuba

The Trump administration permitted the sanctioned Russian Aframax tanker Anatoly Kolodkin to deliver 730,000 barrels of Urals crude to Cuba's Bay of Matanzas, ending a three-month oil supply gap.

Jan 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Triggers Chinese Strategic Recalculation

A U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has escalated into a regional conflagration, directly threatening China's energy supply chains through potential Strait of Hormuz disruption and destabilizing the global trade architecture Beijing depends on.

Jan 1, 2025OtherWidening

Freedom House Freedom in the World 2026 Report Release

Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World 2026 report documents the 20th consecutive year of global democratic decline, with 54 countries deteriorating against 35 improving.

Jan 1, 2025OtherNarrowing

PRC Energy Resilience Architecture Reaches Strategic Sufficiency Threshold

Chinese expert consensus has coalesced around the position that PRC energy security now exceeds the threshold at which maritime chokepoint interdiction — via Hormuz or Malacca — constitutes a credible coercive instrument.

Jan 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

BRI Resurgence as Industrial Policy Instrument Reaches $213.5 Billion in 2025

BRI project values reached $213.5 billion in 2025, eclipsing the 2016 peak, as Beijing repurposed the initiative from infrastructure connectivity into a vehicle for industrial policy execution.

Oct 7, 2022Sanctions or economic measureMixed

U.S.-Allied Semiconductor Export Controls Accelerate China's Chip Self-Sufficiency Drive

U.S. and allied export controls on advanced logic chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, imposed from 2022 and subsequently expanded, were designed to constrain China's AI and frontier chip capabilities.