Ethiopia
The federal withdrawal from Alamata in January and continued redeployment of forces from the Amhara front to Tigray confirm strategic overextension as the dominant current signal, partially offset by pre-election legal consolidation measures.
PF Score
35
▼1Authority
43
Reach
28
Under construction
The federal withdrawal from Alamata in January and continued redeployment of forces from the Amhara front to Tigray confirm strategic overextension as the dominant current signal, partially offset by pre-election legal consolidation measures.
Multi-front overextension erodes federal writ at contested peripheries.
Regional entanglements consume capacity without adding projective instruments.
Ethiopia's pre-2026 election environment represents a structural consolidation of Prosperity Party power through legal architecture rather than crude electoral manipulation.
The report formalizes institutional recognition that Middle East conflict is structurally transmitting economic instability into Africa via trade, energy, and fertilizer channels.
The Pretoria Agreement's failure to produce economic recovery is generating a structural legitimacy crisis for both the TPLF and the federal government in Tigray.