Ethiopian Civil War
Delta badges show 30-day net PF movement
Pro-Government
Pro-Tplf
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Other Linked Actors
Tigray remains fragile after peace, while Amhara and Oromo insurgencies keep Ethiopia unstable
Escalation Trace
Tigray remains fragile after peace, while Amhara and Oromo insurgencies keep Ethiopia unstable
Theater
Focus Region
Africa
Geo-Linked Events
1
The TPLF-led EPRDF coalition ousted the Derg regime and took power, with the TPLF dominating Ethiopian federal politics for nearly three decades.
Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister, restructured the ruling coalition into the Prosperity Party, and sidelined the TPLF, which retreated to Tigray and refused to join.
On November 4, the TPLF attacked the Ethiopian National Defense Force's Northern Command base in Tigray, prompting Abiy to launch a federal military offensive backed by Eritrean forces.
After federal forces briefly captured Tigray's capital Mekelle in late 2020, TPLF counteroffensives recaptured it by June 2021 and pushed south, advancing to within roughly 200km of Addis Ababa before being repelled.
Eritrean and federal forces conducted a major offensive in late 2022, reversing TPLF territorial gains; the Pretoria Peace Agreement was signed on November 2, formally ending major hostilities and requiring TPLF disarmament.
Amhara Fano militias, which had fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF, turned against the federal government in a separate insurgency after Abiy moved to dissolve regional special forces.
The Oromo Liberation Army continued a parallel low-level insurgency in Oromia, leaving Ethiopia simultaneously managing multiple active armed conflicts despite the Tigray ceasefire.
PRO-GOVERNMENT
PRO-TPLF
UAE drone program was decisive government advantage in 2022. Eritrea's involvement is ideological/strategic — TPLF governed Eritrea-Ethiopia relations hostilely during their 1998-2000 war. Eritrea functions as Abiy Ahmed's external enforcer against TPLF. Regional dimension: Somali clan militias and various non-state actors along periphery.
Estimated 300,000-500,000 dead in Tigray war 2020-2022 making it one of deadliest 21st century conflicts. Mass atrocities, sexual violence, and starvation weaponized by all sides. Peace agreement fragile.
Tigray Post-Pretoria Economic Collapse and Political Fragmentation
Three years after the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended the Tigray war, the region's industrial base remains effectively inoperative, with pre-war industrial GDP contribution estimated to have collapsed from 26.3% to below 2-3%.