Simmering / Africa
Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff
Ethiopia's three-front insurgency deepens as the Egypt-Eritrea axis hardens from diplomatic posture into physical infrastructure.
Pro-Government
Pro-Tplf
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
War
Ethiopia
Ethiopia's civil war began in November 2020, when the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked a federal army base in Tigray and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded with a full military offensive.
The TPLF had run Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy sidelined them in 2018. Eritrea sent troops to fight its old enemy alongside Ethiopian forces. UAE and Turkish drones broke the battlefield for Addis Ababa in 2022, forcing the TPLF to the table. The Pretoria Agreement ended that war. It did not end the wars. Amhara Fano militias who fought beside the government turned on it in 2023, and the Oromo Liberation Army insurgency in Ethiopia's largest region grinds on.
Africa's second-most populous country is now fighting on three fronts at once.
Ethiopia's National Dialogue Commission opened plenary deliberations in mid-July 2026, placing transitional justice on the agenda for the first time in over a year, but the session arrives against a backdrop of accelerating ceasefire breakdown rather than consolidation.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Western Tigray remains the highest-probability near-term flashpoint: TPLF leaders have publicly stated intent to reassert territorial control there.
The Egypt-Eritrea maritime axis has crossed from diplomatic signaling into operational infrastructure, and its intensification during Ethiopia's June-September GERD filling season means hydropolitical, electoral.
Abiy's June supermajority removes legislative constraints on centralization but deepens the legitimacy deficit driving all three insurgencies.
PRO-GOVERNMENT
PRO-TPLF
Simmering / Africa
Ethiopia's three-front insurgency deepens as the Egypt-Eritrea axis hardens from diplomatic posture into physical infrastructure.
War / Africa
Sudan's war grinds on as US chemical weapons sanctions, Iranian drone contracts, and a Russian basing deal entrench both sides.
Eritrean Defense Forces have shifted from federal partner to TPLF backer.
Fano Amhara militias operate as a semi-autonomous armed actor whose territorial ambitions in western Tigray place them in sustained tactical opposition to both.
Oromo Liberation Army sustains an active insurgency across Oromia.
Egypt anchors the external counter-alignment through its June 2026 maritime cooperation agreement with Eritrea, concurrent port upgrades at Asab and Doraleh.
Sudan's SAF provides geographic and logistical corridor depth within the Egypt-Eritrea axis, functioning as a transit layer rather than a direct combatant.