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EscalatedGlobalProxy War2017–presentReviewed Apr 5

US-China Strategic Competition

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US-China rivalry is being reshaped by the Iran war, energy shocks, and alliance fragmentation

Escalation Trace

US-China rivalry is being reshaped by the Iran war, energy shocks

10 phases · 59 events
Apr 2025Apr 2026

Theater

Focus Region

Global

Geo-Linked Events

53

2013

China launches the Belt and Road Initiative, committing hundreds of billions in infrastructure investment across Asia, Africa, and Europe to expand its global economic influence and challenge US-led development institutions.

2017

The Trump administration designates China a strategic competitor in the National Security Strategy, marking a formal US policy shift from engagement to systemic rivalry across economic, military, and technological domains.

2018

The US imposes tariffs on over $360 billion in Chinese goods, triggering retaliatory Chinese tariffs and launching a prolonged trade war that disrupts global supply chains and accelerates economic decoupling.

2019

The US blacklists Huawei and restricts its access to American technology, expanding the competition into a battle over 5G dominance and control of critical digital infrastructure worldwide.

2020

Tensions sharpen across multiple fronts simultaneously: the US closes the Chinese consulate in Houston citing espionage, military confrontations escalate in the South China Sea, and COVID-19 origins disputes further poison diplomatic relations.

2021

The Biden administration organizes the AUKUS security pact and reinvigorates the Quad alliance with Australia, India, and Japan, consolidating a network of partnerships explicitly designed to counter Chinese military and economic expansion in the Indo-Pacific.

2022

The US passes the CHIPS and Science Act, allocating $52 billion to domestic semiconductor manufacturing and tightening export controls on advanced chips to China, intensifying the technological competition.

2023

The US expands chip export restrictions to additional countries, while China restricts exports of gallium and germanium critical to semiconductor production, signaling a shift toward weaponized interdependence across global supply chains.

Both sides act as primary sponsors of their respective networks; Russia aligned opportunistically with China

US leverages NATO, QUAD, AUKUS, and regional partners; China leverages BRI recipients, SCO members, and economic dependencies across Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

Apr 5, 2026Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Pakistan Seeks Multi-Front Strategic Balancing Amid India, Afghanistan, and Iran-US Pressures

Pakistan is portrayed as attempting to manage concurrent pressures from India, Afghanistan, and the Iran-US conflict through diplomacy with China, Gulf states, Tehran, and Washington.

Apr 5, 2026Diplomatic exchangeNarrowing

KMT Leader Visits China for Expected Xi Meeting

Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun's visit to China, including an expected meeting with Xi Jinping, creates a direct political channel between Beijing and Taiwan's main opposition party while the PRC continues refusing contact with the ruling DPP government.

Apr 3, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK Convenes 35-Nation Coalition to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Britain is hosting a virtual 35-nation diplomatic meeting led by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper to coordinate diplomatic, political, and eventual military measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed following the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Energy Supply Shock

An ongoing war involving Iran has effectively halted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing transit from approximately 20 million barrels per day to near zero and triggering acute energy shortages across Asia and Africa.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Escalation Against Iranian Infrastructure; Hormuz Coalition Talks Yield No Breakthrough

US and Israeli forces struck multiple high-value Iranian targets including the Pasteur Institute, the B1 bridge in Karaj, and Iran's two largest steel plants, as Trump publicly framed these as coercive leverage to force a negotiated settlement.

Apr 1, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

China Endorses Pakistan-Led Five-Point Diplomatic Framework to End US-Israeli War on Iran

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing and secured China's endorsement of a five-point peace framework calling for immediate cessation of hostilities, US-Iran talks, Strait of Hormuz security guarantees, and restraint from all parties.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran: Strategic Assessment

An ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran has killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, degraded Iranian missile stocks and production infrastructure, and prompted a US troop buildup aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 30, 2026Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Russia Delivers Sanctioned Oil Tanker Cargo to Cuba Amid U.S. Blockade

Russia deployed the sanctioned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin to deliver 730,000 barrels of crude to Cuba, the first shipment since Venezuela's supply chain collapsed following the U.S. seizure of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Japan Southwestern Island Chain Military Fortification

Japan has deployed Patriot air-defense systems, anti-ship missile batteries, electronic warfare units, and upgraded radar across its southwestern island chain from Yonaguni to Kyushu, creating a layered denial architecture covering the Miyako Strait and approaches to Taiwan.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Israeli War on Iran Triggers Chinese Strategic Reassessment

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has escalated into a regional conflict, threatening Strait of Hormuz transit and disrupting global energy markets.

Mar 29, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Global Nuclear Proliferation Cascade Accelerates Post-Iran Strikes

US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, combined with the collapse of US-Russia arms control treaties and Trump's selective non-proliferation enforcement, have triggered the most serious global proliferation debate in decades.

Mar 27, 2026Sanctions or economic measureMixed

China Launches Reciprocal Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

China's Commerce Ministry opened two trade investigations mirroring U.S. Section 301 probes into Chinese practices: one targeting U.S. supply-chain disruptions, tech-export controls, and investment restrictions; a second focusing on U.S. barriers to Chinese renewable-energy products.

Mar 27, 2026Legal changeMixed

Iran Formalizes Strait of Hormuz Toll Regime and De Facto Blockade

Iran's Parliament is advancing legislation to institutionalize fees for Strait of Hormuz transit, converting an informal IRGC-enforced clearance system into a formal sovereignty claim over a passage treated under international law as an international waterway.

Mar 27, 2026Institutional reformMixed

Japan Accelerates Postwar Pacifism Rollback Under Takaichi Security Agenda

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, following a landslide February 2026 election victory, is executing a comprehensive reorientation of Japan's security posture: ~$60 billion in new defense spending, arms export deregulation, creation of a clandestine intelligence service, and a push to revise the pacifist Article 9 constitution.

Mar 24, 2026Institutional reformWidening

Philippines Declares National Energy Emergency Amid Regional Fuel Crisis

Philippine President Marcos declared a national energy emergency on March 24 following fuel price increases exceeding 50 percent in a month, prompting subsidies, toll suspensions, and a potential fuel tax pause.

Mar 19, 2026Diplomatic exchangeNarrowing

Takaichi-Trump Summit and U.S.-Japan Strategic Alignment Review

Prime Minister Takaichi and President Trump met in Washington on March 19, 2026, to advance bilateral cooperation amid a deteriorating regional and global security environment.

Mar 1, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

China Pursues Economic Statecraft Offensive Under Donroe Doctrine Conditions

China is systematically leveraging U.S. alliance disruption under the Trump administration to deepen economic ties with key American partners including the UK, Canada, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.

Mar 1, 2026Sanctions or economic measureMixed

PRC Civilian Manufacturing Ecosystem Sustains Iran Drone Campaign Under Western Sanctions

Iran's large-scale drone campaign in the Persian Gulf in March 2026 is structurally underpinned by a decentralized network of Chinese micro-enterprises supplying propulsion systems, precision components, manufacturing equipment, and electronics.

Feb 24, 2026Institutional reformWidening

European Defense Mobilization Gap Assessment — Year Five of Russia-Ukraine War

As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, a structural assessment of European defense readiness reveals a persistent gap between available resources and actual mobilization.

Feb 15, 2026Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russian Oil Tanker Delivers First Shipment to Cuba Since January

A Russian tanker delivered the first oil shipment to Cuba since January 2026, ending a period of acute energy deprivation triggered by the US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Feb 1, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

U.S. Strategic Engagement in South Caucasus via Vance Visits and TRIPP Framework

U.S. Vice President Vance visited both Armenia and Azerbaijan in February 2026, signing a Strategic Partnership Charter with Baku, a $9 billion nuclear investment framework with Yerevan, and confirming a 99-year U.S. management lease over the TRIPP corridor.

Jan 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Russia Breaks U.S. Naval Blockade of Cuba via Fuel Tanker Dispatch

Russia dispatched the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin to Cuba under a humanitarian fuel aid framing, directly testing the U.S. de facto naval blockade imposed as part of the Trump administration's broader coercive campaign against Havana.

Sep 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

China Intelligence Exploitation of US-Iran Conflict (Operation Roaring Lion)

As US and Israeli forces conduct high-intensity multi-domain operations against Iran (Operation Roaring Lion/Epic Fury), China is conducting systematic intelligence collection across electronic, imagery, and open-source domains to extract lessons on US operational signatures, platform vulnerabilities, AI and EW employment, and strategic decision-making under Trump.

Jul 21, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Iran Armed Conflict Week Five: Airstrikes on Tehran and Strait of Hormuz Closure

U.S. airstrikes continue against Tehran targets as the bilateral conflict extends into its fifth week, with ground troop deployment now under active consideration. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering an oil price surge and significant disruption to global energy markets.

Jul 17, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Deploys Sanctioned Tankers to Break U.S. Fuel Blockade of Cuba

Russia is actively circumventing U.S. sanctions by dispatching sanctioned tankers to supply Cuba with oil amid a U.S.-imposed fuel blockade that has produced widespread blackouts. The first tanker, Anatoly Kolodkin, completed delivery at Matanzas; a second vessel is being loaded.

Jul 14, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

U.S. Request for South Korean Naval Participation in Strait of Hormuz Coalition

The Trump administration has requested South Korea join a multilateral naval convoy to counter Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Seoul has responded equivocally, joining a multilateral condemnation statement but evading commitment on direct military involvement.

Jul 14, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

European NATO Allies Block U.S. Military Operations Against Iran

Spain, Italy, and France have blocked or restricted U.S. military overflight and basing rights for operations against Iran, while refusing to assist in clearing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has responded by threatening to withdraw from NATO.

Jul 11, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Exercises Effective Control Over Strait of Hormuz During U.S.-Israel War

Iran has reduced vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz from over 100 to a handful daily following the outbreak of war with the U.S. and Israel, deploying drones, missiles, and fast boats to enforce a de facto blockade.

Jul 10, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Macron Indo-Pacific State Visits: Japan and South Korea Diplomatic Alignment

French President Macron conducted back-to-back state visits to Tokyo and Seoul, producing coordinated positions on Strait of Hormuz freedom of navigation, critical mineral supply chain resilience, civilian nuclear cooperation, and AI.

Jul 10, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK Convenes 41-Nation Diplomatic Coordination on Strait of Hormuz Closure

The UK foreign secretary convened a virtual meeting of 41 nations to coordinate diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran following its effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Jul 10, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Trump Wartime Address Signals US Abdication of Hormuz Security Role

President Trump delivered a nationally televised address defending the ongoing US-Iran war, asserting strategic objectives are near completion while acknowledging Tehran has not fallen after 33 days of intensive strikes.

Jul 9, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Threatens NATO Exit Following Iran War Alliance Fracture

President Trump publicly declared NATO withdrawal is 'beyond reconsideration,' calling the alliance a 'paper tiger' after key members — the UK, France, and Spain — declined to join U.S. military operations against Iran or assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Jul 8, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

China-Pakistan Joint Ceasefire Proposal for Iran War

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar issued a five-point joint proposal in Beijing calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Iran war, protection of Strait of Hormuz shipping, and launch of peace talks.

Jul 2, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Lapis Lazuli Corridor Extension and Competing Central Asian Transit Architecture Development

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Pakistan are advancing plans to extend the Lapis Lazuli Corridor into a continental transit artery linking South and East Asia to Europe via the South Caucasus, bypassing both Russian-linked north-south routes and Iranian transit infrastructure.

Jul 1, 2025Institutional reformWidening

U.S. Liberal Order Dismantlement Under Trump and Iran Military Action

Acharya identifies the Trump administration's simultaneous dismantlement of free trade norms, multilateral institutions, democracy promotion, and alliance commitments as the terminal phase of the U.S.-led liberal international order.

Jul 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

U.S.-China Strategic Stalemate and Parallel Decoupling Race

Following the Trump-Xi summit, U.S.-China relations have stabilized into a fragile truce that rolled back certain tariffs but left structural friction intact.

Jul 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Pentagon Patriot Interceptor Supply Pause and Resequencing Away from Europe

Following U.S. strikes against Iran in June 2025, the Pentagon paused Patriot shipments to Ukraine citing readiness concerns, while simultaneously resequencing export priorities toward Gulf states and Indo-Pacific partners.

Jun 30, 2025Institutional reformWidening

U.S. State Department Orders Embassies to Counter Foreign Influence Campaigns

The State Department issued a diplomatic cable signed by Secretary Rubio directing all U.S. embassies and consulates to intensify counter-influence operations against foreign adversary disinformation.

Jun 27, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S. Launches Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion Against Iran

The United States has initiated military operations — Epic Fury and Roaring Lion — targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile capabilities.

Jun 22, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

IRGC Threatens US Tech Companies as Legitimate Military Targets

Iran's IRGC issued a conditional threat to strike more than 15 US technology companies operating in the region, designating firms involved in AI and ICT-enabled targeting as legitimate military targets.

Jun 21, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Signaling on Bab al Mandeb Amid US-Iran Escalation

As US-Israeli strikes against Iran escalate, the Houthis have signaled willingness to extend disruption operations to the Bab al Mandeb Strait, compounding Iran's restrictions on Hormuz traffic.

Jun 19, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Threatens NATO Exit Amid US-Iran War Strategic Impasse

President Trump publicly characterized NATO as a 'paper tiger' and raised the prospect of US withdrawal from the alliance during the ongoing US-Iran conflict, while simultaneously demanding European and Gulf states form an independent coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Jun 19, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Iran War Escalation: Strait of Hormuz Closure and Allied Fracture

Ongoing U.S. strikes on Iran are destroying infrastructure including bridges and research institutes, while Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, demonstrating residual strike capability.

Jun 18, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK-Led 35-Nation Coalition Convenes to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The UK is convening 35 countries to assess diplomatic, political, and military options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's partial blockade of the waterway.

Jun 18, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Repeated NATO Abandonment Threats Amid Iran War Fallout

President Trump threatened to leave NATO again following European refusal to join the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Secretary Rubio warned that the US-NATO relationship would need 're-examination' post-war.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump Deploys Troops to Middle East, Considers Kharg Island Seizure

President Trump has deployed thousands of US troops to the Middle East region amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, while openly discussing seizure of Iran's Kharg Island — the hub for approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports.

Jun 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Pakistan Positions as US-Iran Mediation Hub Under Munir's Leadership

Pakistan's de facto ruler Field Marshal Asim Munir has leveraged Pakistan's diplomatic positioning to offer Islamabad as the venue for US-Iran negotiations, with JD Vance reportedly considering a visit.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel War with Iran Creates Strategic Opening for China

The ongoing US-Israel military conflict with Iran is creating compounding strategic advantages for China beyond the theater of direct combat.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Operation Epic Fury: U.S. Counter-Industrial Campaign Against Iran

The United States, under Operation Epic Fury, has launched a systematic campaign to destroy Iran's military-industrial complex — targeting not just deployed forces and launch systems but the production infrastructure generating Iran's drone and missile arsenal.

May 8, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

PRC-Russia Eurasian Bloc Institutionalization, 2022–2026

From 2022 to early 2026, the PRC-Russia relationship transitioned from tactical alignment to functional bloc formation, anchored by financial system integration bypassing SWIFT, energy corridor expansion, military-industrial supply chain coupling, and coordinated multilateral positioning through SCO and BRICS.

May 6, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump-Xi Summit Delayed Amid Compounding US-China Tensions

The anticipated Trump-Xi leaders' summit has been delayed to mid-May, during which time multiple destabilizing events have accumulated: China launched retaliatory trade probes against US practices, a bipartisan US Senate delegation visited Taiwan to pressure increased defense spending, and Beijing issued a joint ceasefire call with Pakistan over Trump's Iran conflict.

May 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Military Escalation Against Iran Accelerates China's Structural Power Position

US military engagement against Iran, framed as degrading a pillar of Chinese-Russian Eurasian influence, is assessed as structurally counterproductive.

May 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Shadow Fleet Starlink and Crypto Evasion Infrastructure Exposed

An investigation reveals Russia's shadow fleet of over 3,000 tankers uses Starlink terminals, cryptocurrency payroll systems, and intermediary networks routed through China, Namibia, and Oman to evade Western sanctions and sustain oil revenues funding its invasion of Ukraine.

May 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Amid Structural U.S.-China Strategic Divergence

The anticipated mid-May 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing will likely produce a prolonged trade truce but no structural resolution to the bilateral rivalry.

Apr 16, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Trump Signals NATO Withdrawal Over Iran War Non-Participation

President Trump publicly characterized NATO as a 'paper tiger' and stated U.S. membership is 'beyond reconsideration' after allies refused to support U.S. operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 15, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Iran Selectively Grants Strait of Hormuz Passage Rights to Asian States

Iran has established a selective passage regime through the Strait of Hormuz, granting access to ships from countries it deems politically non-hostile — including China, India, Japan, Pakistan, Thailand, and Malaysia — while effectively blocking others.

Apr 14, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Threatens Seizure of Kharg Island and Iranian Energy Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to seize Iran's Kharg Island — which processes 90% of Iranian oil exports — and destroy energy infrastructure if Iran maintains its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 14, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

China Sanctions Takaichi Aide Furuya Over Taiwan Visit

China imposed sanctions on Keiji Furuya, a close aide to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, following his visit to Taiwan.

Apr 7, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Establishes Permission-Based Control Over Strait of Hormuz

Iran, through IRGC operations, has reduced commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz by 95%, removing approximately 15 million barrels of oil per day from global markets.

Apr 4, 2025Legal changeMixed

UNSC Vote on Strait of Hormuz Shipping Protection Resolution

Bahrain, as UNSC chair, finalized a draft resolution authorizing 'all defensive means necessary' to protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for at least six months, following US-Israeli strikes on Iran that effectively closed the strait.

Apr 4, 2025Legal changeMixed

UNSC Vote on Bahrain Hormuz Shipping Resolution

Bahrain, as Security Council chair and backed by Gulf states and Washington, advanced a resolution authorizing 'all defensive means necessary' to protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for at least six months.

Apr 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Retaliatory Missile and Drone Strikes on Israel and Gulf States; US Destroys Tehran-Karaj Bridge

Iran launched missiles targeting Israel and drone/missile attacks against Kuwait and the Iraq-Jordan border crossing at Trebil, in response to sustained US-Israeli strikes including the destruction of Iran's highest bridge linking Tehran to Karaj.

Apr 3, 2025Institutional reformNarrowing

Trump Unveils $1.5 Trillion FY2027 Defense Budget Request

The Trump administration submitted a $1.5 trillion defense budget request for FY2027, the largest year-over-year increase in post-WWII US defense spending history.

Apr 3, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

China Rare-Earth Export Controls and Hormuz Closure Expose U.S. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

China's rare-earth export licensing system and Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure have emerged as effective counter-coercion tools against U.S. economic and military aggression.

Apr 2, 2025OtherMixed

Trump Predicts Hormuz Reopening Post-Conflict, Citing Iran's Oil Dependency

President Trump publicly stated that full Strait of Hormuz navigation will be restored once the US-Iran conflict ends, framing Iran's need to sell oil as the structural incentive for reopening.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Pakistan-China Diplomatic Coordination on US-Iran Mediation Framework

Pakistani Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar travelled to Beijing to brief Chinese leadership on a quadrilateral meeting (Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) and to align on a five-point framework for potential US-Iran dialogue, including ceasefire, resumed talks, civilian protection, maritime security, and UN Charter adherence.

Apr 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Sanctioned Russian Tanker Delivers Crude Oil to Cuba Amid US Blockade

The Anatoly Kolodkin, a sanctioned Russian crude tanker, docked at Matanzas, Cuba, delivering 730,000 barrels — the first crude shipment since Venezuela's Maduro was removed, severing Cuba's primary energy lifeline.

Apr 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Delivers Humanitarian Oil Shipment to Cuba Amid US Pressure Campaign

Russia delivered 100,000 tons of oil to Cuba via the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, framed as humanitarian cargo under international maritime law protections.

Apr 1, 2025OtherWidening

Burns Interview on Global Order Inflection Point

Former CIA Director William Burns, one of the most senior U.S. diplomatic figures of the past two decades, assessed the current global strategic environment as a structural inflection point in a Foreign Affairs interview.

Apr 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Structural Collapse of US-China Economic Interdependence as Geopolitical Stabilizer

The cumulative effect of US tariffs, export controls on advanced chips, Chinese retaliatory restrictions on rare-earth exports, and mutual industrial policy escalation has severed the commercial interdependence that previously moderated US-China strategic rivalry.

Mar 31, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

France Denies Airspace for US-Israel Munitions Flights; Israel Halts French Arms Procurement

France denied overflight rights to aircraft carrying military supplies from the US to Israel during Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing joint US-Israel offensive against Iran.

Mar 30, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

G-7 Joint Statement on Energy Market Stability Amid Iran-Gulf Crisis

G-7 economy, finance, and energy ministers convened in Paris to coordinate a response to energy market disruptions caused by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Mar 29, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Pakistan Emerges as U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Interlocutor, Displacing India in Regional Order

Pakistan hosted multilateral talks on March 29 with Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia to support a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while Pakistani PM Sharif and Army chief Munir maintained separate backchannels to relay messages between Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.

Mar 28, 2025Information-cyberMixed

Russia Provides Iran Satellite Targeting Intelligence on U.S. Military Facilities

Russian satellites systematically photographed U.S. and allied military installations — including Diego Garcia, Prince Sultan Air Base, Al Udeid Air Base, Incirlik Air Base, and Gulf oil infrastructure — and shared imagery with Iran, enabling subsequent Iranian strikes.

Mar 27, 2025Institutional reformWidening

P5 Veto Bloc Blocks UNSC Authorization of Force to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Russia, China, and France effectively blocked a Bahrain-drafted UNSC resolution that would have authorized member states to use 'all necessary means' to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 25, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran War Triggers Hormuz Closure and Global Energy Shock

A U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, removing approximately 13-14 million barrels of oil per day from global markets and driving Brent crude up 59 percent.

Mar 24, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Issues Destruction Ultimatum Over Kharg Island and Iranian Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's Kharg Island oil export terminal, oil wells, power plants, and desalination facilities unless Tehran swiftly agrees to a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapse and Ras Laffan LNG Facility Attack

An Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility on March 18, 2025, combined with the broader collapse of Strait of Hormuz traffic to 5% of normal flows, has created the largest disruption to global oil and LNG supplies in modern history.

Mar 16, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Trump Postpones Beijing Summit with Xi Jinping

President Trump announced the postponement of a planned March 31–April 2 summit in Beijing — the first presidential visit to China in nearly a decade — citing the ongoing Iran war.

Mar 6, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK-Led 40-Nation Virtual Coalition Forms to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Britain is convening over 40 nations — including France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, and the UAE — in virtual talks to coordinate diplomatic and eventually military strategies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran since US-Israeli strikes on February 28.

Mar 6, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Iran Asserts Tolling Authority Over Strait of Hormuz and Drafts Monitoring Protocol with Oman

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to non-approved traffic and is now institutionalizing that closure through a draft monitoring protocol with Oman and a proposed $2 million per-voyage toll system.

Mar 5, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Russia-Iran-Ukraine Conflict Convergence and Gulf Arms Diplomacy

Russia has deepened military support to Iran — including intelligence, satellite imagery, targeting data, and drone shipments — while Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil prices benefiting Moscow.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Establishes Effective Control Over Strait of Hormuz

Iran has achieved near-total operational control of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of war with the US and Israel in late February 2025, reducing vessel transits by over 95%.

Feb 6, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

Russia Dispatches Second Oil Tanker to Cuba Under US Fuel Blockade

Russia is loading a second oil tanker bound for Cuba after a US-imposed fuel blockade severed the island's supply chain following Venezuela's political collapse. The first Russian tanker, carrying 730,000 barrels of crude, arrived at Matanzas on Tuesday.

Feb 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureMixed

U.S. Project Vault Critical Minerals Stockpile and Congo Resource Strategy Launch

The Trump administration unveiled Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic critical minerals reserve modeled on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, paired with a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan facility and $2 billion in private finance.

Jan 20, 2025Institutional reformWidening

U.S. Federal Research Funding Disruption Under Trump Administration

The Trump administration froze, terminated, or disrupted $1.4 billion in university research grants, attempted to shift funding allocation from merit-based peer review to political favoritism, and defunded research in politically disfavored fields including climate science and mRNA vaccines.

Jan 20, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

PLA 71st Group Army Deploys Type 96A Tanks with GL-6 APS

The PLA Eastern Theatre Command's 71st Group Army has publicly displayed Type 96A main battle tanks fitted with the GL-6 active protection system.

Jan 15, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Xi Jinping Invites KMT Chair Cheng Hsiu-yen to Mainland China

Xi Jinping, in his capacity as CCP General Secretary, personally invited KMT Chairperson Cheng Hsiu-yen to visit Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing, marking a significant cross-strait party-to-party engagement signal.

Jan 11, 2025Institutional reformWidening

PLA CMC Purge of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli

Xi Jinping removed CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli, eliminating the PLA's last combat-experienced senior commanders.

Jan 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Triggers Chinese Strategic Recalculation

A U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has escalated into a regional conflagration, directly threatening China's energy supply chains through potential Strait of Hormuz disruption and destabilizing the global trade architecture Beijing depends on.

Jan 1, 2025OtherWidening

Freedom House Freedom in the World 2026 Report Release

Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World 2026 report documents the 20th consecutive year of global democratic decline, with 54 countries deteriorating against 35 improving.

Jan 1, 2025OtherNarrowing

CNAS Publishes Hellscape Asymmetric Defense Concept for Taiwan

CNAS researchers publish an operational concept urging Taiwan to restructure its defense posture around a four-layer drone-centric asymmetric strategy capable of defeating a PLA amphibious invasion.

Jan 1, 2025OtherNarrowing

PRC Energy Resilience Architecture Reaches Strategic Sufficiency Threshold

Chinese expert consensus has coalesced around the position that PRC energy security now exceeds the threshold at which maritime chokepoint interdiction — via Hormuz or Malacca — constitutes a credible coercive instrument.

Jan 1, 2025Information-cyberWidening

Escalating Foreign Targeting of U.S. Energy Infrastructure

Foreign state actors — primarily China and Iran — have pre-positioned cyber capabilities within U.S. energy infrastructure and escalated physical and cyber threat postures amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Jan 1, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

BRI Resurgence as Industrial Policy Instrument Reaches $213.5 Billion in 2025

BRI project values reached $213.5 billion in 2025, eclipsing the 2016 peak, as Beijing repurposed the initiative from infrastructure connectivity into a vehicle for industrial policy execution.

Jan 15, 2024Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Iran Hormuz Insurance Coercion Exposes Taiwan Strait Economic Warfare Vulnerability

Iran's missile and drone campaign against Hormuz shipping has functionally closed a fifth of global oil supply not through direct interdiction but by causing insurers to withdraw coverage from transiting vessels.

Jan 1, 2024Military or coercive actionNarrowing

North Korea Deploys Combat Troops to Russian Army in Ukraine

North Korea deployed ground troops embedded within Russian Army formations in 2024, fighting in Russian uniforms — a significant escalation from prior diplomatic alignment and munitions supply. This move operationalizes the DPRK-Russia partnership into a direct military co-belligerence arrangement.

Jan 1, 2024Legal changeMixed

UNSC Draft Resolution on Defensive Force in Strait of Hormuz

The UN Security Council is preparing to vote on a draft resolution that would authorize 'defensive' use of force to protect commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has been conducting disruptive actions.

Oct 7, 2022Sanctions or economic measureMixed

U.S.-Allied Semiconductor Export Controls Accelerate China's Chip Self-Sufficiency Drive

U.S. and allied export controls on advanced logic chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, imposed from 2022 and subsequently expanded, were designed to constrain China's AI and frontier chip capabilities.