Ukraine
Ukraine operates as a functionally sovereign state under existential military siege.
PF Score
47
▲1Authority
45
Reach
49
Under construction
Deep strikes and a Libya foothold keep Ukraine externally relevant. It still sits above Pakistan and near the Iran baseline on reach because it can impose costs beyond the front, while wartime dependence and continued Russian bombardment keep domestic control strained rather than collapsing.
Wartime governance holds, but infrastructure attrition caps consolidation.
Deep-strike adaptation sustains influence beyond the battlefield.
Vladislav Vlasiuk
Ukrainian president's representative on sanctions policy
Vladislav Vlasiuk serves as the Ukrainian president's representative on sanctions policy.
Ukraine's drone campaign continues to erode Russia's practical monopoly on escalation by imposing costs on energy and industrial infrastructure deep inside Russian territory.
Russia's adoption of rolling daytime follow-on strikes and faster drone variants marginally improves its exercised coercive power over Ukraine without requiring major new territorial gains.
Ukraine's reported basing arrangement in western Libya marks a meaningful expansion of the war with Russia into the central Mediterranean and North Africa.