Pro-Junta Counter Insurgency
Pro-Jihadist
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
War
The Sahel Insurgency began in 2012, when a coup in Mali and a Tuareg rebellion collapsed state control of the north and let al-Qaeda-linked fighters seize Timbuktu and Gao.
France pushed them out in 2013 but never destroyed the networks, which spread across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Today two jihadist blocs dominate the countryside: JNIM, the al-Qaeda affiliate, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. A wave of coups between 2020 and 2023 brought military juntas to power in all three capitals. They expelled French forces and brought in Russian mercenaries, first Wagner and now Africa Corps. The juntas control the cities.
The jihadists run the roads between them.
Trajectory
The JNIM-FLA siege of Bamako is the most acute phase of the Sahel insurgency since 2012.
The April 25 offensive killed Mali's defense minister, reversed the 2023 Kidal capture, and cut the capital's fuel supply lines; JNIM has since burned over 100 tankers on western highways, tightening an economic stranglehold the junta has failed to break.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Analysis
Africa Corps' retreat from Kidal to capital-perimeter protection is a structural inflection point: Russia has lost a city it captured in November 2023, negotiated withdrawal under fire, and abandoned equipment.
The JNIM-FLA operational alliance is the most consequential jihadist-separatist convergence in the Sahel since 2012.
The May 15 US-Nigeria joint operation killing ISWAP commander al-Minuki marks a qualitative shift in US counterterrorism posture in West Africa, from advisory and ISR support to confirmed offensive ground action.
Historical Context
A military coup in Mali and a Tuareg rebel offensive (MNLA) collapsed state control of the north; jihadist groups, including AQIM-linked factions, rapidly seized the power vacuum and occupied major northern cities including Timbuktu and Gao.
France launched Operation Serval, deploying thousands of troops to halt the jihadist advance; the intervention recaptured northern cities but failed to eliminate insurgent networks, which dispersed into the broader Sahel.
Violence spread into central Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger as jihadist factions exploited inter-communal tensions; civilian casualties and displacement began rising sharply across all three countries.
Key jihadist factions — Ansar Dine, AQIM's Sahara branch, and Al-Mourabitoun — merged to form JNIM, creating a unified al-Qaeda affiliate; the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) simultaneously expanded as a rival force, fracturing the insurgency into two competing jihadist blocs.
Mali suffered its first coup in August 2020, followed by a second in May 2021; Burkina Faso experienced two coups in 2022, and Niger's elected president Bazoum was overthrown in July 2023, producing three military juntas hostile to Western presence across the region.
France ended Operation Barkhane after nearly a decade and was expelled from Mali; the Malian junta invited Wagner Group mercenaries as replacements, a model subsequently adopted by Burkina Faso and Niger, shifting the conflict's external backing from Western to Russian.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formalized the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with a mutual defense pact and withdrew from ECOWAS; JNIM and ISGS continued expanding territorial control, besieging provincial capitals and cutting key supply routes across all three countries.
JNIM blockaded Mali's Timbuktu for months, causing a humanitarian crisis; despite Wagner/Africa Corps support, junta forces failed to reverse insurgent territorial gains, leaving large rural areas under de facto jihadist governance across the Sahel.
PRO-JIHADIST
May 24, 2026 / Cotonou / 49 articles / Strong link
Romuald Wadagni was sworn in as Benin's new president on Sunday after winning an election widely seen as consolidating the country's policy direction over the past decade.
Recent ER pilot conflict link via preset:africa-instability. Matched terms: burkina faso, jihadism, mali, niger, sahel.
May 24, 2026 / Cotonou / 23 articles / Strong link
Romuald Wadagni was sworn in as Benin's new president on Sunday after winning an election widely seen as consolidating the country's policy direction over the past decade.
Recent ER pilot conflict link via preset:africa-instability. Matched terms: burkina faso, jihadism, niger, sahel.
May 23, 2026 / Istanbul / 40 articles / Strong link
Turkish police on Saturday detained 13 people as part of an investigation into the 2023 congress of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), according to state media, days after a court ruling removed party leader Ozgur Ozel, deepening a political crisis in the country.
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Proxy Network
Africa Corps (Wagner successor): Russian deniable contractor force repositioned from forward combat to regime-protection duties inside Bamako after losing.
Azawad Liberation Front (FLA): Tuareg separatist force in operational alliance with JNIM.
ISGS transnational cells: Islamic State franchise operating at the Mali-Niger frontier.
Lakurawa: IS-aligned coercive governance actor consolidating parallel authority in Nigeria's Sokoto-Kebbi borderlands.
VDP auxiliaries: Burkina Faso's civilian self-defense militia extending junta coercive reach into ungoverned areas while generating sustained mass atrocity.
Battle Deaths
Negotiated Agreements
Nov 23, 1997
AgreementProtocole d'accord additionnel entre le Gouvernement de la Republique du Niger et l'Union des Forces de la Resistance Armee (FPLS, MUR, FAR) et les Forces Armees Revolutionnaires du Sahara
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: Algeria
Jun 10, 1993
AgreementParis Accord
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: France
Recent ER pilot conflict link via preset:africa-instability. Matched terms: isis, mali.
May 20, 2026 / Bamako / 15 articles / Strong link
Dozens of vehicles, including fuel tankers, minibuses and trucks, have been set on fire near Mali's capital, Bamako, as jihadists step up a blockade of the city, the BBC has confirmed.
Recent ER pilot conflict link via preset:africa-instability. Matched terms: bamako, jihadism, jihadist, jihadists, mali, sahel.
May 19, 2026 / Borno State / 11 articles / Strong link
The recent joint offensive by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) and Nigerian forces killed at least 175 fighters from the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).Officials described the operations as one of the biggest blows yet to ISIS-affiliated networks in Africa.
Recent ER pilot conflict link via preset:africa-instability. Matched terms: insurgency, isis, islamic state, iswap, niger, offensive.
May 18, 2026 / Kidal / 17 articles / Strong link
Drone strikes carried out by Mali's army have killed at least 10 civilians in the central region of San as they were preparing for a wedding, in a further escalation of violence involving armed groups and state forces.
Recent ER pilot conflict link via preset:africa-instability. Matched terms: al-qaeda, insurgency, jihadism, mali.
May 14, 2026 / Kidal / 12 articles / Strong link
Army supported by Russian mercenaries launches airstrikes after offensive by coalition of Islamist extremists and Tuareg separatists Mali's armed forces, supported by Russian mercenaries, have launched airstrikes targeting a rebel alliance of Islamist extremists and Tuareg separatists as the ruling junta struggles to maintain its hold on power in the unstable west African country.
Recent ER pilot conflict link via preset:africa-instability. Matched terms: bamako, burkina faso, jihadism, mali, niger, offensive.
May 10, 2026 / Bamako / 19 articles / Strong link
Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. When Russian forces withdrew last month from the strategic stronghold of Kidal in northern Mali -- retreating under the jeers of the very rebels they were sent to crush -- they surrendered more than just territory.
Recent ER pilot conflict link via preset:africa-instability. Matched terms: al-qaeda, burkina faso, jihadism, mali, niger, sahel.
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