Sahel Insurgency
Delta badges show 30-day net PF movement
Pro-Junta Counter Insurgency
Pro-Jihadist
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
JNIM/ISSP expanding territory and transnational ops; juntas losing more civilians than jihadists
ISSP operationally projecting into Europe; Russia's Sahel strategy stalling amid battlefield losses and rival encroachment
Escalation Trace
JNIM/ISSP expanding territory and transnational ops; juntas losing more civilians than jihadists
Theater
Focus Region
Africa
Geo-Linked Events
9
A military coup in Mali and a Tuareg rebel offensive (MNLA) collapsed state control of the north; jihadist groups, including AQIM-linked factions, rapidly seized the power vacuum and occupied major northern cities including Timbuktu and Gao.
France launched Operation Serval, deploying thousands of troops to halt the jihadist advance; the intervention recaptured northern cities but failed to eliminate insurgent networks, which dispersed into the broader Sahel.
Violence spread into central Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger as jihadist factions exploited inter-communal tensions; civilian casualties and displacement began rising sharply across all three countries.
Key jihadist factions — Ansar Dine, AQIM's Sahara branch, and Al-Mourabitoun — merged to form JNIM, creating a unified al-Qaeda affiliate; the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) simultaneously expanded as a rival force, fracturing the insurgency into two competing jihadist blocs.
Mali suffered its first coup in August 2020, followed by a second in May 2021; Burkina Faso experienced two coups in 2022, and Niger's elected president Bazoum was overthrown in July 2023, producing three military juntas hostile to Western presence across the region.
France ended Operation Barkhane after nearly a decade and was expelled from Mali; the Malian junta invited Wagner Group mercenaries as replacements, a model subsequently adopted by Burkina Faso and Niger, shifting the conflict's external backing from Western to Russian.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formalized the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with a mutual defense pact and withdrew from ECOWAS; JNIM and ISGS continued expanding territorial control, besieging provincial capitals and cutting key supply routes across all three countries.
JNIM blockaded Mali's Timbuktu for months, causing a humanitarian crisis; despite Wagner/Africa Corps support, junta forces failed to reverse insurgent territorial gains, leaving large rural areas under de facto jihadist governance across the Sahel.
PRO-JUNTA/COUNTER-INSURGENCY
PRO-JIHADIST
RUSSIA-WAGNER/AFRICA CORPS: Most consequential proxy entry. France expelled from Mali 2022, Burkina 2023, Niger 2023. Wagner/Africa Corps filled vacuum. Deployed alongside juntas, conducting operations but with impunity for atrocities (Moura massacre 2022: 500+ killed by Malian army + Wagner). Russia gains: military basing, uranium/gold access, anti-France narrative, influence demonstration. Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) — Mali/Burkina/Niger union — is de facto Russian client bloc in Sahel.
French Barkhane's expulsion is major geopolitical reversal of post-colonial security architecture. Wagner's Africa expansion (~20 countries) is Russia's primary tool for African influence. Jihadist belt threatens to connect Sahel to West African coast.
Ukraine Establishes Covert Military Foothold in Western Libya
Reporting indicates Ukraine has deployed personnel to western Libya in coordination with the Tripoli-based government, gaining access to bases in Misrata and near Mellitah for drone operations.
HRW Documents Mass Civilian Killings by Burkina Faso Junta Forces and JNIM
HRW's report quantifies the structural failure of Burkina Faso's junta-led counter-insurgency: state forces and their VDP auxiliaries killed more civilians (1,255) than the jihadist enemy (582) across the same period, inverting the security mandate.
ISSP Emerges as Transnational External Operations Hub
Islamic State Sahel Province has transitioned from a localized insurgency to a structured external operations platform, integrating into IS global command in 2022 and expanding networks into Morocco, Spain, France, Austria, and beyond.
Russia's Sahel Security Project Stalls Amid Battlefield Losses and Rival Encroachment
Russia's five-year Sahel expansion — anchored by Wagner/Africa Corps deployments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — is entering a phase of strategic retrenchment.
Africa Politology Sahel Influence Campaign Exposed
Leaked documents from Africa Politology — a Russian influence network originally established by Wagner's Prigozhin and later absorbed by Russian foreign intelligence — detail a coordinated multi-year campaign to entrench Russian influence across the Sahel and adjacent states.
JNIM Commander 'Saad' Defects to ISGS with Fighter Contingent
JNIM commander 'Saad,' who spearheaded the group's expansion into eastern Burkina Faso, defected to rival ISGS with several dozen fighters following a reported JNIM truce with the Beninese government.
HRW Documents Mass Civilian Killings by Burkina Faso Forces, VDP, and JNIM
Human Rights Watch documented at least 1,837 civilian deaths in Burkina Faso between January 2023 and August 2025 attributed to the army, the VDP auxiliaries, and JNIM.
Traore Publicly Repudiates Democracy, Consolidates Permanent Authoritarian Rule
Burkina Faso's junta leader Ibrahim Traore explicitly stated that democracy is incompatible with his country's future, eliminating ambiguity about the transitional nature of military rule.
Gulf Dual Chokepoint Crisis Cascades into North Africa and Sahel
Simultaneous effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridor — triggered by US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation including Houthi escalation — has reconfigured global trade flows at structural scale.
Algeria Leverages Iran Conflict to Renegotiate European Gas Contracts
Algeria is using disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supply chains — particularly the Iranian strike on Qatari LNG plants — to renegotiate gas export prices with Italy and Spain, seeking a 15–20 percent increase.
Mass Civilian Killings in Niger's Tahoua Region
Armed assailants on motorbikes attacked three isolated villages in the Birni N'Koni department of Niger's Tahoua region, killing 30 civilians and seizing approximately 500 head of livestock before withdrawing into Nigeria.
Wagner Information Network Crackdown and Expulsion in Chad
Chadian authorities arrested four Wagner-linked Russian operatives — including Maxim Shugaley and Evgeny Tsarev — along with several local journalists after the operatives attempted to establish influence infrastructure in N'Djamena, including a 'Russian House' cultural center.
Russia's Company Network Conducts Paid Disinformation Placement Across West African Media
A Russian influence network ('the Company'), originally founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin and subsequently absorbed by Russia's SVR foreign intelligence service, systematically placed nearly 650 pro-Russian, anti-French, anti-Ukrainian articles across 35 West African media outlets from June to October 2024.