Nigeria
The HADIN KAI Q1 offensive and the Tinubu UK state visit are the two dominant new signals, both narrowing.
PF Score
44
▲1Authority
49
Reach
40
Under construction
The HADIN KAI Q1 offensive and the Tinubu UK state visit are the two dominant new signals, both narrowing. The offensive sustains the incremental counterinsurgency progress flagged in the prior cycle, while the UK realignment begins building durable diplomatic infrastructure.
HADIN KAI command attrition gains offset by persistent ISGS border corridor threat.
UK state visit deepens defense and energy ties, lifting diplomatic floor.
Michael Onoja
Director of Defence Media Operations at Nigeria's Defence Headquarters in Abuja
Major General Michael Onoja serves as the Director of Defence Media Operations at Nigeria's Defence Headquarters in Abuja.
Saad's defection to ISGS fractures JNIM's command cohesion along its most strategically significant expansion corridor at a moment when both groups are actively contesting Benin as the gateway to Nigeria.
The report formalizes institutional recognition that Middle East conflict is structurally transmitting economic instability into Africa via trade, energy, and fertilizer channels.
Boko Haram/ISWAP's attempted mass abduction of 150 civilians in Borno demonstrates continued insurgent capacity to execute large-scale, coordinated operations in rural northeastern Nigeria despite years of Operation Hadin Kai pressure.