Nigeria Multi-Front Insurgency
Delta badges show 30-day net PF movement
Op HADIN KAI Q1 ops killed 100+ insurgents, eliminated senior ISWAP commander Abu Ya'yar
ISSP/JNIM fracture adds transnational complexity but Nigerian military retaining operational initiative
Escalation Trace
Op HADIN KAI Q1 ops killed 100+ insurgents, eliminated senior ISWAP commander Abu Ya'yar
Theater
Focus Region
Africa
Geo-Linked Events
3
Mohammed Yusuf founds Boko Haram in Maiduguri, preaching that Western education and secular governance are forbidden under Islam, drawing thousands of followers across Nigeria's impoverished northeast.
Nigerian security forces crush a Boko Haram uprising in Maiduguri, killing founder Mohammed Yusuf in custody; his successor Abubakar Shekau relaunches the group as a full armed insurgency targeting police, military, and civilians.
Boko Haram kidnaps 276 schoolgirls from Chibok, sparking the global #BringBackOurGirls campaign; the group also seizes territory across Borno State, briefly declaring a caliphate in Gwoza.
A Multinational Joint Task Force of Nigerian, Chadian, Nigerien, and Cameroonian troops pushes Boko Haram out of most held territory, but the group shifts to suicide bombings and guerrilla raids killing thousands annually.
A faction splits from Boko Haram to form ISWAP, formally affiliating with Islamic State; ISWAP adopts a strategy of targeted military attacks and limited civilian governance, making it more resilient and eventually dominant in the Lake Chad basin.
Shekau dies during a confrontation with ISWAP forces; most remaining Boko Haram fighters are absorbed into ISWAP, consolidating jihadist command across the northeast while the Nigerian military suffers repeated ambushes with heavy casualties.
Simultaneously, bandit militias terrorize northwest Nigeria and Fulani-farmer violence escalates across the Middle Belt, killing thousands annually and displacing millions, stretching Nigerian security forces across multiple unconnected fronts.
LIMITED EXTERNAL: US (intelligence, training), UK (advisory). Boko Haram/ISWAP: No major state sponsor but ISWAP receives IS guidance. Niger (now hostile) and Chad historically allowed cross-border operations.
No dominant external proxy structure. Lake Chad Basin Commission coordinates Nigeria/Chad/Niger/Cameroon response. Niger's 2023 coup removed key partner. ISWAP has IS affiliation but primarily self-funded. Boko Haram-ISWAP split (2021) created inter-jihadist violence. Northwest bandits are primarily criminal-economic actors, not ideological.
Nigeria consistently ranks top 10 globally for conflict severity per ACLED. Multiple simultaneous non-connected conflicts strains federal response. Oil economy finances government capacity but also creates spoils driving Delta violence.
Nigeria Operation HADIN KAI Q1 2026 Offensive — ISWAP Leadership Attrition
Nigerian military forces, operating under Operation HADIN KAI, conducted precision air and ground strikes across Borno, Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba, and Yobe states in Q1 2026, killing over 100 insurgents and eliminating senior ISWAP commander Abu Ya'yar al-Muhajir.
ISSP Emerges as Transnational External Operations Hub
Islamic State Sahel Province has transitioned from a localized insurgency to a structured external operations platform, integrating into IS global command in 2022 and expanding networks into Morocco, Spain, France, Austria, and beyond.
Boko Haram/ISWAP Mass Abduction Attempt Repelled in Borno State
Boko Haram/ISWAP forces attempted to abduct approximately 150 civilians travelling in 17 vehicles along the Buratai-Kamuya axis in Borno State, attacking a Nigerian Army escort force.
JNIM Commander 'Saad' Defects to ISGS with Fighter Contingent
JNIM commander 'Saad,' who spearheaded the group's expansion into eastern Burkina Faso, defected to rival ISGS with several dozen fighters following a reported JNIM truce with the Beninese government.
Mass Civilian Killings in Niger's Tahoua Region
Armed assailants on motorbikes attacked three isolated villages in the Birni N'Koni department of Niger's Tahoua region, killing 30 civilians and seizing approximately 500 head of livestock before withdrawing into Nigeria.