War / Africa
Lake Chad Basin Insurgency
IS franchises are merging Sahel and Lake Chad theaters faster than any riparian state can counter.
Nigeria
Nigeria is fighting four wars at once.
In the northeast, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and the remnants of Boko Haram run a jihadist insurgency that began in 2009, when security forces killed Boko Haram's founder in custody and his successor relaunched the movement as an armed campaign. In the northwest, bandit militias raid villages and run mass kidnappings. Across the Middle Belt, Fulani herders and farming communities kill each other over land. In the Niger Delta, militants sabotage oil infrastructure.
The Nigerian Armed Forces face all four fronts with a single, overstretched military, and the country's collapse would destabilize a region of 230 million people already pressed by Sahel jihadism to the north.
Nigeria's insurgency crossed a structural threshold in mid-2026 as IS-Sahel Province claimed its first attacks in Sokoto and Kebbi in May, formally absorbing the northwest into Islamic State's Sahelian operational strategy and stretching Nigerian security forces across a four-theater arc from Lake Chad to the Middle Belt.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
IS's directed redeployment of fighters to Nasarawa and toward Mali's Niger border follows the same pre-strike mobility pattern used before the January 2026 coordinated attacks on Niamey's airport and air base.
The collapse of G5 Sahel and the Sahel states' withdrawal from ECOWAS has eliminated the formal intelligence-sharing architecture between the Lake Chad and Sahel theaters.
Nigeria's 80 percent pay rise for junior enlisted personnel addresses retention at the bottom of a force stretched across four theaters.
LIMITED EXTERNAL
US (intelligence, training), UK (advisory).
Boko Haram/ISWAP
No major state sponsor but ISWAP receives IS guidance. Niger (now hostile) and Chad historically allowed cross-border operations.
War / Africa
IS franchises are merging Sahel and Lake Chad theaters faster than any riparian state can counter.
War / Africa
Ethiopia's multi-front war deepens as Pretoria collapses, a regional counter-axis hardens, and Abiy's supermajority locks in insurgent grievances.
ISWAP maintains formal affiliation with Islamic State central, receiving ideological guidance and financial oversight that shapes operational priorities.
IS-Sahel Province (ISSP) has extended its operational arc into northwestern Nigeria.
Boko Haram's JAS wing operates as an autonomous insurgent node sustaining sanctuary in the Borgu-Kainji forest corridor along the Niger border.
Lakurawa functions as a coercive parallel governance actor in Sokoto and Kebbi borderlands, taxing communities and enforcing compliance independent of Abuja.
IWSAP's Cameroon branch has extended parallel governance into Darak district, appointing Cameroonian lieutenants and dismantling border military posts.