War / Africa
Nigeria Multi-Front Insurgency
Nigeria's insurgency widens as IS affiliates redeploy cross-regionally while US security assistance faces congressional conditions.
Lake Chad Basin
The Lake Chad Basin Insurgency began in 2009, when Nigerian forces killed Boko Haram founder Mohammed Yusuf and crushed an uprising in Maiduguri.
The crackdown radicalized the survivors, who returned as a full insurgency under Abubakar Shekau. A 2016 split produced Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which killed Shekau in 2021 and now dominates the basin. Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon fight back through the Multinational Joint Task Force, with Western counterterrorism support.
The war has displaced over 2 million people across four countries, and ISWAP's links to Islamic State and Sahel jihadist networks are turning a Nigerian insurgency into a regional one.
ISSP's May 2026 debut attacks in Sokoto and Kebbi formalized the merger of the Sahel and Lake Chad theaters, rebranding existing banditry networks under IS command and opening a northwestern front that Nigerian security forces were not postured to absorb.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
ISSP's Sokoto and Kebbi debut is franchise consolidation, not geographic extension: it absorbs existing banditry networks under IS command, deepens ISSP-JNIM competition inside Nigerian territory.
The IS leadership council's cross-regional redeployment orders, 100 fighters toward Mali's border and 50 to Nasarawa, replicate the pre-strike mobility pattern preceding the January 2026 Niger airport attack.
The collapse of AES states' participation in ECOWAS and AU intelligence-sharing frameworks has eliminated the formal channels through which cross-theater fighter movement could be tracked.
Despite ongoing MNJTF operations, ISWAP and residual Boko Haram factions continued large-scale attacks on military bases and villages, with the conflict displacing over 2 million people across the Lake Chad basin.
ISWAP fighters killed Shekau in a battlefield confrontation, absorbing much of his faction and consolidating as the dominant insurgent force across Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon.
A major faction broke from Shekau and pledged allegiance to ISIS, forming Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which adopted a strategy of targeting soldiers while cultivating civilian populations around Lake Chad.
Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Benin formally activated the Multinational Joint Task Force, recapturing most Boko Haram-held territory but failing to eliminate the group.
Boko Haram seized roughly 20,000 square miles of territory in Borno State and abducted 276 schoolgirls from Chibok, drawing global attention and prompting a regional military response.
Boko Haram escalated to suicide bombings and complex attacks, including a strike on UN headquarters in Abuja, signaling a shift to large-scale terrorism beyond northeastern Nigeria.
Nigerian security forces killed Yusuf and crushed a Boko Haram uprising in Maiduguri, killing over 700 people; the crackdown radicalized survivors and transformed the group into a full insurgency under Abubakar Shekau.
Boko Haram was founded in Maiduguri, Nigeria by Mohammed Yusuf as a Salafist movement rejecting Western education and secular governance, laying the ideological groundwork for armed conflict.
Islamic State core provides ideological branding and limited financial networks to ISWAP; Western and US counterterrorism support to riparian states
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Nigeria Raises Military Salaries by Up to 80 Percent
Nigeria announced pay rises of 30 percent for officers above colonel, 50 percent from colonel to warrant officer, and 80 percent from private to staff sergeant, covering about 250,000 personnel from September.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Other
U.S. State Department Presents Error-Filled AI-Generated Africa Map at AIDS Conference
At a pre-conference session in Rio de Janeiro on American relations with African governments, a senior State Department health official displayed a map misplacing Nigeria, Mozambique, and Ivory Coast, drawing wrong borders for Uganda and Malawi, and omitting Cameroon while citing it in the legend.
Jul 24, 2026
Escalating
Legal
US Congress Conditions Nigeria Security Assistance and Expands Morocco Defence Ties
The House passed a 1.15 trillion dollar defence authorisation whose accompanying report requires the defence department to report a strategy on violence in Nigeria, after passing a 2027 foreign aid bill that restricts all security assistance to Abuja pending progress in protecting Christians.
Jun 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Second 2026 Jihadist Attack on Niamey Airport
Gunmen struck Niamey's airport, which hosts most of Niger's military aircraft and drones plus Russian and Italian forces, in the second such attack of 2026.
Jun 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Global Surge in Attacks on Education in Conflict Zones
Attacks on education rose 40% over 2024-2025, with military occupation of schools nearly doubling and the highest casualties in Myanmar, Nigeria, Yemen, Cameroon, Palestine, and Ukraine.
Jun 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
West African States Launch Combined Maritime Task Force for Gulf of Guinea
Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, and Sierra Leone launched the Combined Maritime Task Force, the first combined naval unit created and led by African states rather than foreign navies, inaugurated by President Tinubu at the Nigerian navy's 70th anniversary.
May 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
IS-Sahel Claims First Attacks in Northwestern Nigeria
Islamic State Sahel Province claimed its first attacks in northwestern Nigeria, saying its fighters ambushed Nigerian Army patrols in Sokoto and Kebbi states and killed eighteen soldiers and one police officer.
May 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Joint US-Nigeria Strike Kills ISWAP Commander Al-Minuki, Triggering Succession Crisis
A joint US-Nigeria special forces and airstrike operation killed ISWAP's most senior first-generation commander, Abu Bilal Al-Minuki, between midnight and 4 a.m. on May 16, 2026, in the Lake Chad Basin.
May 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Nigeria Joint Operation Kills ISWAP Senior Commander al-Minuki
U.S. and Nigerian forces conducted a joint operation on May 15, 2026, killing Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, assessed as head of the Islamic State's General Directorate of Provinces and a senior ISWAP leader.
May 14, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
AFRICOM Commander Congressional Testimony on Africa Counter-Terrorism Posture FY2027
AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson testified before both the Senate and House Armed Services Committees in May 2026, publicly documenting a structural intelligence gap in the Sahel caused by basing losses, allied withdrawals, and coup-driven diplomatic ruptures.
May 6, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Nigerian Federal Court Rebukes National Assembly Over N110bn Spending
Justice Yellim Bogoro of the Federal High Court in Lagos ruled that the Nigerian National Assembly's N110bn expenditure — N40bn for 465 bulletproof SUVs and N70bn in support allowances — breached lawmakers' constitutional duties and public interest obligations.
Apr 20, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Boko Haram Sadiku Wing Expands Operations into Borgu-Kainji Axis
The Sadiku wing of JAS has escalated attacks across the Borgu-Kainji corridor, including mass killings, kidnappings and roadside bombings, while Nigerian responses remain localized and reactive.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Third-Country Deportation Network Expansion Across Africa
The US has constructed a web of secretive bilateral migration agreements with over a dozen African states, coercing acceptance of third-country deportees through threats of tariffs, visa restrictions, and aid withdrawal, while offering mineral access deals and security cooperation as inducements.
Apr 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
Nigeria Operation HADIN KAI Q1 2026 Offensive — ISWAP Leadership Attrition
Nigerian military forces, operating under Operation HADIN KAI, conducted precision air and ground strikes across Borno, Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba, and Yobe states in Q1 2026, killing over 100 insurgents and eliminating senior ISWAP commander Abu Ya'yar al-Muhajir.
Mar 31, 2026
De-escalating
Other
ISSP Emerges as Transnational External Operations Hub
Islamic State Sahel Province has transitioned from a localized insurgency to a structured external operations platform, integrating into IS global command in 2022 and expanding networks into Morocco, Spain, France, Austria, and beyond.
Mar 30, 2026
Mixed
Military
Boko Haram/ISWAP Mass Abduction Attempt Repelled in Borno State
Boko Haram/ISWAP forces attempted to abduct approximately 150 civilians travelling in 17 vehicles along the Buratai-Kamuya axis in Borno State, attacking a Nigerian Army escort force.
Feb 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Lakurawa Consolidates Coercive Governance in Northwest Nigeria Borderlands
Lakurawa has shifted from a tolerated anti-banditry presence in Sokoto and Kebbi states into a coercive parallel governance actor, enforcing Islamic behavioral codes, extracting resources through taxation and confiscation, and neutralizing community vigilantes.
Feb 15, 2026
Mixed
Other
JNIM Commander 'Saad' Defects to ISGS with Fighter Contingent
JNIM commander 'Saad,' who spearheaded the group's expansion into eastern Burkina Faso, defected to rival ISGS with several dozen fighters following a reported JNIM truce with the Beninese government.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Nigeria Resumes Mass Terrorism Trials in Abuja
Nigeria resumed large-scale terrorism prosecutions at the Federal High Court in Abuja, with multiple judges hearing cases simultaneously and sentencing several defendants linked to Boko Haram.
Dec 31, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Nigeria Multi-Theater Security Deterioration Surpasses Boko Haram Peak
Nigeria recorded approximately 12,000 conflict-related deaths in 2025, exceeding the 2014 Boko Haram peak and surpassing Iraq, Syria, and Yemen combined for the same year.
Dec 1, 2025
Stable
Diplomatic
West African and Sahel States Convene to Rebuild Counter-Terrorism Coordination
Representatives from Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Niger, Togo, Ghana and Mali met in a seminar hosted by Togo to rebuild counter-terrorism coordination after the Sahel states' withdrawal from ECOWAS and the collapse of the G5 Sahel joint force.
Jul 1, 2025
Stable
Diplomatic
Pope Leo XIV Inaugural Africa Tour
Pope Leo XIV completed a 10-day inaugural African tour spanning Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea — all authoritarian states with significant Catholic populations.
Jun 5, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Tinubu Africa CEO Forum Address on African Industrialisation
Nigerian President Tinubu delivered a high-profile address at the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, calling for African states to impose value-addition requirements on raw material exports, build regional industrial cooperation, and reduce dependence on Western financial institutions and supply chains.
Jun 4, 2025
Escalating
Other
Algeria Breaks Ground on Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline Algerian Section
Algeria commenced construction on its section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) in the Adrar region, following adoption of a final feasibility study by British consultancy Penspen.
Jun 3, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Somalia Federal-Opposition Armed Clashes Over Electoral System
Armed clashes between Somali federal troops and opposition-allied militias erupted in Mogadishu on June 3, following President Mohamud's contested one-year term extension and parliament's passage of constitutional amendments shifting Somalia toward direct elections.
Jun 2, 2025
Mixed
Political
Ethiopia Federal Election Under Multi-Front Conflict Conditions
Ethiopia held federal elections on June 2, 2025, with Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party projected to win a second five-year term in a landslide.
May 29, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Nigeria Joint Airstrikes Expand Against ISWAP in Northeast Nigeria
The United States has expanded joint military operations with Nigeria in the country's northeast, with recent strikes eliminating a top ISWAP leader and killing 175 militants.
May 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Nigeria-US Joint ISWAP Offensive Kills ISIS Global Deputy, 200+ Fighters in Borno State
A joint Nigerian-US kinetic campaign launched May 16 in Borno State neutralized over 200 ISWAP fighters and eliminated Abu Bilal al-Minuki, identified as ISIS global second-in-command.
May 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Nigeria Joint Operation Kills ISWAP Deputy Commander al-Minuki
A joint Nigerian Army commando and US Navy SEAL Team 6 helicopter-borne assault killed ISWAP second-in-command Abu-Bilal al-Minuki and approximately 40 lieutenants in a nearly three-hour battle.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US Releases 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy; ISIS Deputy Killed in Nigeria Joint Operation
President Trump announced the killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS's second-in-command, in a joint US-Nigerian operation on May 15, 2025, coinciding with release of the administration's 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy.
May 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Nigeria Joint Airstrikes Against Islamic State in Northeast Nigeria
AFRICOM and Nigerian forces conducted joint airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northeast Nigeria on May 4, 2025, two days after a joint operation killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as IS's second-in-command worldwide.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
Madagascar Military Junta Announces 2027 Electoral Transition Timeline
Madagascar's military election body announced a constitutional referendum for June 2027 and elections for October 2027, fulfilling the two-year transition timeline agreed with SADC following the October 2024 coup.
Apr 22, 2025
Escalating
Political
US Senate Moves to Confirm Frank Garcia as Africa Bureau Chief
The US Senate is proceeding with a group confirmation vote for 49 Trump appointees, including Frank Garcia as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs — the first Senate-confirmed bureau chief since Molly Phee's departure at the end of the Biden administration.
Apr 13, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Nigeria Raises Abuja Security Over Reported Jihadist Attack Plot
A Nigerian Customs Service memo triggered heightened security measures around Abuja after warning of credible Boko Haram and ISWAP plans to strike the capital's airport and prison facilities.
Apr 12, 2025
Mixed
Political
Wadagni Elected President of Benin with 94.27% of Vote
Romuald Wadagni won Benin's presidential election with 94.27% of the vote, marking the fifth democratic transfer of power since 1990 and the first under a significantly restructured constitutional framework.
Mar 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Mass Civilian Killings in Niger's Tahoua Region
Armed assailants on motorbikes attacked three isolated villages in the Birni N'Koni department of Niger's Tahoua region, killing 30 civilians and seizing approximately 500 head of livestock before withdrawing into Nigeria.
Feb 9, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Tsamiya-Kamba Corridor Reopening Between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin
Nigeria officially reopened the Tsamiya-Kamba border corridor in Kebbi State, restoring cross-border movement of goods and people between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin after seven years of closure.
Feb 3, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Global Foreign Aid Collapse — $30 Billion Reduction in 2025
In 2025, the United States dismantled USAID and, alongside France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, collectively cut approximately $30 billion in foreign aid.
Jan 20, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Withdrawal from WHO and USAID Liquidation Amid Active Congo Ebola Outbreak
The Trump administration's dismantling of USAID, weakening of CDC international capacity, and January 2025 withdrawal from the WHO — the organization's largest historical funder — has removed the primary U.S. instruments for African public health engagement.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
ISWAP Parallel Governance Expansion into Darak District, Northern Cameroon
ISWAP has systematically extended its territorial reach from Nigeria's Tumbuma Mantiqa into Cameroon's Darak district, deploying taxation, judicial enforcement, propaganda, and direct military attacks on state infrastructure.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
ISS Report: KFR Escalation in Chad and Borderlands
The Institute for Security Studies has published a thematic report documenting the structural maturation of kidnapping for ransom in Chad and its border regions with Cameroon and the CAR.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Joint U.S.-Nigeria Strike Kills Islamic State No. 2 al-Mainuki
U.S. and Nigerian forces conducted a joint operation killing Abu Bakr ibn Muhammad ibn 'Ali al-Mainuki, Islamic State's alleged second-in-command globally.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Lake Chad Basin Climate-Conflict Displacement Compounding Crisis
Climate disasters have surpassed armed conflict as the primary driver of displacement in the Lake Chad Basin, while the two stressors are increasingly compounding each other.
Sep 1, 2024
De-escalating
Cyber
Wagner Information Network Crackdown and Expulsion in Chad
Chadian authorities arrested four Wagner-linked Russian operatives — including Maxim Shugaley and Evgeny Tsarev — along with several local journalists after the operatives attempted to establish influence infrastructure in N'Djamena, including a 'Russian House' cultural center.
Oct 1, 2023
Escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Director Burns Visits Yaoundé, Cementing US-Cameroon Intelligence Partnership
CIA Director William Burns conducted a discreet visit to Yaoundé in early October 2023, meeting senior officials of Cameroon's DGRE foreign intelligence service.
Jan 1, 2023
Stable
Military
Abu Musab al-Barnawi Reported Killed in Kaduna State
Abu Musab al-Barnawi, ISWAP's last publicly identified leader and head of its media apparatus, is reported to have died in 2023 after detonating an explosive vest when Nigerian security forces arrived at his compound in Kaduna State.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Pan-Africanist Critique Frames Continental Crises as Renewed External Domination
The commentary treats Africa's active crises as one system rather than separate emergencies. Sudan's war, resource-driven conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, insurgency in Cabo Delgado
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Boko Haram Elevates Cameroonian Commanders to Extend Reach Into Far North
Boko Haram's two factions are promoting Cameroonian fighters into strategic and tactical command, with at least five commanders mobilizing around a thousand fighters in Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Islamic State Affiliates Redeploy Fighters Across Lake Chad and Sahel
A recent leadership council resolved to send 100 fighters from the Lake Chad Basin to reinforce affiliates near Mali's border with Niger, and 50 more to Nasarawa in central Nigeria hundreds of kilometres from their stronghold.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Accra Conference Convened on Governance of Africa's Critical Minerals
Sub-Saharan Africa holds close to 30 percent of world reserves in the minerals driving the energy transition, with revenues from four of them projected near 16 trillion dollars by 2050.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CFR Issues Crisis Playbook for U.S. Responses to Insurgency-Related Conflict
The Council on Foreign Relations published a decision-support playbook codifying how U.S. policymakers should assess and respond to insurgency-related crises, from pre-crisis intelligence questions through a four-option strategic spectrum of monitor, contain, defend, and transform, backed by case studies from FARC and Boko Haram to the Islamic State, Tigray, the RSF, and M23.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
UK Cuts Africa Bilateral Aid 52 Percent to Fund Defence Spending
The UK government's latest spending plans reduce regional bilateral aid to Africa by 52 percent over three years to finance higher defense spending, as new Prime Minister Andy Burnham takes office with Africa low among his foreign policy priorities.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Army-Militia Security Bargains Proliferate Across Central Africa
Across Chad, Cameroon, CAR, eastern DRC, and South Sudan, the line between state security forces and armed groups is dissolving into hybrid bargains: militias fight alongside armies, collect revenue, run checkpoints, and govern areas outside state control.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Nigeria Reasserts West African Leadership Through Pro-Democracy Interventions
Under Tinubu, Nigeria has assembled a pattern of assertive regional action: leading ECOWAS denunciation and sanctions pressure against Niger's junta including cutting electricity supply, deploying fighter jets and ground troops to defeat a December coup attempt against Benin's elected government and reinforcing that presence in recent weeks, initiating reconciliation talks with the breakaway Alliance of Sahel States, and running joint counterterrorism operations with the United States that killed a senior Islamic State commander in May.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Sahel Refugee Influx Strains Northern Benin Reception Capacity
Tens of thousands of forcibly displaced people fleeing violence in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria have arrived in northern Benin, with arrivals noticeably accelerating since January-February.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Nigerian Presidential Rivals Court Trump Administration Ahead of 2027 Vote
Rival Nigerian presidential camps are signing Washington lobbyists to win Trump administration favor ahead of the 2027 election, each pitching itself as the best partner on Nigerian insecurity.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Jihadist School Attacks and Teacher Beheading in Oyo State, Nigeria
Armed militants conducted coordinated attacks on schools across three communities in Oyo State, abducting 39 pupils and 7 teachers and killing two teachers — including one beheaded on video.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Trump FY2027 Budget Proposes 30% State Department Cut and $1.5trn Military Increase
The Trump administration's FY2027 budget request seeks a 30% reduction in State Department funding to $33.6bn, eliminating 10,000 diplomatic personnel and cutting foreign assistance to $20.9bn, while simultaneously requesting a record $1.5trn for the military.
War / Africa
Nigeria's insurgency widens as IS affiliates redeploy cross-regionally while US security assistance faces congressional conditions.
War / Africa
Ethiopia's multi-front war deepens as Pretoria collapses, a regional counter-axis hardens, and Abiy's supermajority locks in insurgent grievances.
ISWAP functions as the basin's primary IS franchise, running taxation, adjudication.
Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) claimed its first attacks in Sokoto and Kebbi in May 2026, killing 18 soldiers and one police officer.
Boko Haram Sadiku wing (JAS) maintains an independent operational track in the Borgu-Kainji corridor.
Cameroonian Boko Haram commanders, at least five elevated to strategic and tactical roles in Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga, provide language, terrain knowledge.
Lakurawa operates as a coercive parallel governance actor in Sokoto and Kebbi states.