Morocco
Sahel spillover trims Morocco's position at the margins.
PF Score
44
▼1Authority
56
Reach
34
Under construction
Sahel spillover trims Morocco's position at the margins. It remains a more coherent state than Pakistan and clearly above fragmented conflict actors, but the combination of jihadist penetration and trade-route stress slightly weakens external room for maneuver more than it erodes domestic command.
Security services contain spillover, but Sahel threat persists
Algeria's energy diplomacy crowds out Morocco's regional influence
Algeria is converting Middle East energy disruption into a structural geopolitical advantage — extracting higher European gas prices while expanding Sahel patronage as Iran's proxy networks degrade.
The dual Hormuz-Red Sea chokepoint crisis has converted North Africa and the Sahel from passively vulnerable to actively destabilizing environments.
ISSP has completed an organizational transition from regional insurgency to transnational external operations hub, with IS central command actively managing this shift to compensate for Iraq-Syria heartland losses.