War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Ethiopia's multi-front war deepens as Pretoria collapses, a regional counter-axis hardens, and Abiy's supermajority locks in insurgent grievances.
Western Sahara
Western Sahara is Africa's last unfinished decolonization.
When Spain abandoned the territory in 1975, Morocco marched 350,000 civilians across the border to claim it, and the Polisario Front, backed by neighboring Algeria, launched a 16-year guerrilla war for an independent Sahrawi state. A 1991 UN ceasefire promised a referendum on self-determination. It has never been held. Morocco administers 80% of the territory behind a 2,700 km sand wall; 170,000 Sahrawi refugees remain in camps in Algeria. The US recognized Moroccan sovereignty in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords, and France followed in 2024.
The vote keeps not happening.
Morocco's July 30 Ceuta operation sent roughly 72,000 people across the border in 48 hours, killing at least 86, and closed only because Rabat chose to restore enforcement.
The surge came ten days after Spain's prime minister visited Algeria and announced a new phase in bilateral relations, confirming the coercion template: relax controls in response to a European partner's diplomatic move toward Algiers, absorb no formal blame, collect the leverage.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Morocco's Ceuta operation is now a validated, replicable coercion template: relax border enforcement in response to a European partner's diplomatic move toward Algeria, generate a mass-crossing event.
The Schengen fracture is the most consequential second-order effect: Italy's suspension of free movement with Spain, 22-member demands for external border hardening.
Polisario's primary patron, South Africa, is absorbing a regional diplomatic crisis over xenophobic violence that has strained its relationships across the continent.
France, a key Security Council member, recognized Moroccan sovereignty in 2024, further eroding international support for independence while the UN envoy's mediation efforts remained stalled with no referendum in sight.
The ceasefire collapsed when Morocco conducted military operations at the Guerguerat border crossing; the US under President Trump formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a major diplomatic blow to the Polisario.
A UN-brokered ceasefire ended 16 years of guerrilla war, with both sides agreeing to a referendum on self-determination — a vote that has never been held due to disputes over voter eligibility.
Morocco completed a 2,700 km sand wall called the Berm, dividing Moroccan-administered western zones from Polisario-controlled eastern desert and confining roughly 170,000 Sahrawi refugees to camps near Tindouf, Algeria.
Mauritania renounced its claim after Polisario attacks crippled its economy; Morocco immediately annexed the vacated southern third, consolidating control over the territory.
Morocco and Mauritania partitioned Western Sahara between them; the Polisario Front declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) and launched a guerrilla war backed by Algeria.
PRO-MOROCCO
Aug 4, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
EU Interior Ministers Back Spain After Ceuta Mass Crossing
European Union interior ministers publicly endorsed Spain's response after roughly 72,000 people crossed into Ceuta over two days at the end of July, with about 70,000 returned to Morocco.
Aug 4, 2026
Stable
Institutional
EU Interior Ministers Meet on Ceuta as Italy Presses for External Processing Hubs
Ministers convened in emergency session after roughly 50,000 people crossed at one of the bloc's two land borders with Africa, with Italy calling for EU-funded processing centres and return hubs in third countries.
Aug 3, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Unaccompanied Minors Strand Spanish Capacity After Ceuta Crossings Recede
After the mass crossing into Ceuta reversed almost as fast as it began, hundreds of unaccompanied minors remained in a Spanish enclave with shelter capacity already exhausted at 600 children.
Aug 3, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
Ceuta Mass Crossing Fractures Schengen and Triggers Emergency EU Border Talks
After tens of thousands crossed from Morocco into Ceuta, Italy suspended Schengen arrangements with Spain and Finland, Denmark and the Czech government pushed further, with Prague urging Spain's suspension from the area entirely.
Aug 2, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Spain's Leader Defends Migration Policy Against European and American Criticism
With most migrants gone from Ceuta by the weekend, the Spanish prime minister turned to defending his government against criticism from European and American leaders.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Twenty-Two European Leaders Blame Spain for the Ceuta Border Breach
Twenty-two European leaders signed a letter, co-organised by Italy and Denmark and addressed to European Union leadership, blaming Spain's migrant regularisation path and a Supreme Court ruling for the storming of Ceuta by more than 70,000 people.
Jul 31, 2026
Escalating
Military
Spain Restores Ceuta Border Control Within 48 Hours of Mass Breach
Spain deployed the military to Ceuta after more than 50,000 migrants crossed from Morocco, using loudspeaker instructions in Arabic and physical pressure to drive returns rather than providing shelter.
Jul 31, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Ceuta Migrant Surge Triggers European Political Backlash and Spain-Italy Rift
After at least 50,000 people entered Ceuta, far-right leaders across France, Italy and Britain attributed the surge to the Spanish prime minister's programme allowing over a million people to regularize their status, a claim contradicted by arrivals who cited relaxed Moroccan border controls.
Jul 31, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Spain and Morocco Tighten Ceuta Border Security After Mass Entry
Following the mass entry into Ceuta, Madrid and Rabat moved together to reinforce the frontier, with unrest on the Moroccan side leaving vehicles burned and overturned.
Jul 30, 2026
Escalating
Other
Ceuta Crossings Return Morocco to the Centre of Europe's Migration Politics
Deadly scenes at the Spanish enclave on 30 July put Morocco back at the centre of European migration politics for the first time since the 2021 crossings ruptured relations with Madrid.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Mass Moroccan Exodus Into Spanish Ceuta Exposes Youth Legitimacy Gap
Between fifty and sixty thousand migrants, mostly young Moroccan men, forced their way into Ceuta beginning July 30. Spain reported seventy-two deaths and Morocco eleven, most by drowning.
Jul 30, 2026
Escalating
Military
Sixty Thousand Cross Into Ceuta as Europe Turns on Spain Rather Than Morocco
Around 60,000 people crossed from Morocco into Ceuta in the 24 hours between 30 and 31 July, overwhelming the exclave. Morocco issued no explanation and the scale suggests deliberately relaxed border controls
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Thousands Cross From Morocco Into Spanish Enclave of Ceuta
Thousands of people crossed the land border from Morocco into Ceuta in a single day, overwhelming the enclave's authorities.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Other
U.S. State Department Presents Error-Filled AI-Generated Africa Map at AIDS Conference
At a pre-conference session in Rio de Janeiro on American relations with African governments, a senior State Department health official displayed a map misplacing Nigeria, Mozambique, and Ivory Coast, drawing wrong borders for Uganda and Malawi, and omitting Cameroon while citing it in the legend.
Jul 27, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Nigeria and South Africa Agree to De-escalate Over Attacks on Nigerian Nationals
Ministerial talks in Abuja produced South African assurances that perpetrators would be prosecuted and Nigerian preparation of property loss claims that could underpin future compensation discussions.
Jul 24, 2026
Escalating
Legal
US Congress Conditions Nigeria Security Assistance and Expands Morocco Defence Ties
The House passed a 1.15 trillion dollar defence authorisation whose accompanying report requires the defence department to report a strategy on violence in Nigeria, after passing a 2027 foreign aid bill that restricts all security assistance to Abuja pending progress in protecting Christians.
Jul 23, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Conditions Saudi Nuclear Deal on Abraham Accords Accession
A day after the US energy secretary signed a thirty-year nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia, Trump conditioned its approval on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords.
Jul 22, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
US-Saudi Civil Nuclear Agreement Signed Then Conditioned on Abraham Accords
The US and Saudi Arabia signed a bilateral agreement founding civil nuclear cooperation, with reports it could eventually permit Saudi uranium enrichment, triggering proliferation alarm in Washington and Israel.
Jul 21, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S. Agrees to Saudi Civilian Nuclear Program With Possible Enrichment
The United States agreed to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear program that could potentially include uranium enrichment on the kingdom's own territory.
Jul 19, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
ECOWAS Heads of State Approve Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline Agreement
West African heads of state signed an intergovernmental agreement in Freetown approving construction of the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, a 6,000km corridor crossing 13 Atlantic coast states.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Ghana Postpones Ramaphosa State Visit Over South African Xenophobic Violence
Ghana deferred a long-planned August state visit by South Africa's president, converting South Africa's domestic anti-migrant violence into an open diplomatic cost.
Jun 30, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Anti-Immigrant Deadline Drives Mass Migrant Departures From South Africa
Tens of thousands marched in Johannesburg and Durban on an unofficial deadline set by anti-immigrant vigilante groups for undocumented African migrants to leave South Africa, triggering mass departures and government-facilitated repatriations.
Jun 26, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Mass Migrant Displacement Crisis in South Africa
Anti-immigration activists issued a deadline demanding undocumented foreigners leave South Africa, triggering a spontaneous mass displacement of thousands of migrants — including legal refugees — who formed street camps around consulates and government offices.
Jun 20, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Escalating Anti-Migrant Mobilization in South Africa
Organized anti-migrant protests have spread across South Africa since April, producing migrant deaths, displacement, and property destruction ahead of a June 30 March and March deadline and November local elections.
Jun 7, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Ramaphosa Announces Five-Point Anti-Illegal Migration Strategy
President Ramaphosa announced a five-point national strategy to address illegal migration, encompassing border enforcement, employer crackdowns, document digitization, relocation of refugee reception centres to border posts, and diplomatic envoys to neighboring states.
May 13, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
South Africa ARF Governance Failure and SADPA Transition Review
South Africa's Portfolio Committee on International Relations adopted its Budget Vote 6 report on 13 May 2026, endorsing the ARF's R400m surplus retention and calling for accelerated transition to SADPA.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Morocco Calls for Western Sahara Removal from UN C-24 Decolonization Committee
At the C-24 regional seminar in Managua, Morocco's UN Ambassador Omar Hilale formally argued that Western Sahara no longer belongs on the Special Committee on Decolonization's agenda, given that the Security Council has managed the file as a peace and security matter for over three decades.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
South Africa Upgrades Germany Ties Through Energy and Skills Agreements
South Africa used high-level visits to Germany and Spain to deepen practical cooperation as relations with Washington deteriorated.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Escalates Diplomatic and Aid Pressure on South Africa
The United States under President Trump has intensified pressure on South Africa through public accusations, aid cuts, boycott behavior around South Africa-hosted multilateral events, and reported efforts to isolate Pretoria diplomatically.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
European Leaders Across Ideological Spectrum Distance from Trump
European leaders spanning the ideological spectrum — Spain's Pedro Sánchez on the left and Italy's Giorgia Meloni on the right — are publicly breaking with Trump, reflecting a structural collapse in his political utility as a transatlantic ally.
Jul 14, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
US Congress Advances Africa Aid Conditionality Bill Amid Defence Budget Expansion
The House Appropriations subcommittee advanced an NSRP bill allocating ~$47bn in foreign affairs discretionary spending — significantly above Trump's $35.6bn request but embedding country-specific conditionalities on Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and DRC-Rwanda.
Jul 14, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Ghana Summons South Africa's Acting High Commissioner Over Xenophobic Attacks
Ghana's Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa summoned South Africa's acting high commissioner Thando Dalamba following viral videos showing Ghanaian migrants being harassed and told to leave South Africa.
Jul 5, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pope Leo XIV Papal Visit to Spain
Pope Leo XIV arrived in Spain for a seven-day visit — the first papal visit in 15 years — centered on migration advocacy, a speech to the Spanish parliament on polarization, and a visit to the Canary Islands migrant hub.
Jul 1, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Pope Leo XIV Apostolic Journey to Africa
Pope Leo XIV completed a four-nation Apostolic Journey through Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea, publicly addressing corruption, inequality, and human rights.
Jul 1, 2025
Stable
Diplomatic
Pope Leo XIV Inaugural Africa Tour
Pope Leo XIV completed a 10-day inaugural African tour spanning Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea — all authoritarian states with significant Catholic populations.
Jun 13, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
France-Africa Summit 'Africa Forward' Hosted in Nairobi
France and Kenya co-hosted the 'Africa Forward' summit in Nairobi — the first France-Africa summit held outside France or Francophone Africa — attended by approximately 30 heads of state, 1,500 business executives, and international organizations.
Jun 4, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kenya-South Africa State Visit and Strategic Partnership Elevation
Kenyan President Ruto conducted a state visit to South Africa to meet President Ramaphosa, with the agenda centered on elevating bilateral relations to a strategic partnership.
May 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Cuba-U.S. Diplomatic Standoff Amid Escalating U.S. Pressure Campaign
Cuba's UN ambassador granted a rare on-the-record interview signaling openness to broad negotiations while publicly rejecting U.S. good faith, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated its coercive campaign through an oil blockade, criminal charges against Raúl Castro, and CIA Director Ratcliffe's direct demands in Havana.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
South Africa Orders Resumption of Zuma Arms Deal Corruption Trial
Judge Nkosinathi Chili of the Pietermaritzburg High Court ordered the resumption of Jacob Zuma's corruption trial, rejecting a fresh postponement request.
May 12, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
South Africa Xenophobia Crisis Triggers West African Diplomatic Protests
A wave of anti-immigrant protests and attacks across South Africa prompted Nigeria and Ghana to summon South Africa's ambassadors and demand investigations into the deaths of Nigerian nationals.
May 11, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
France-Africa Forward Summit Convenes in Nairobi
France convened the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi — its first such summit in an Anglophone country — with over 30 African heads of state and government, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy.
May 2, 2025
Stable
Military
US Soldier Death During African Lion Exercise in Morocco
A US Army platoon leader went missing near a cliff at Cap Draa, Morocco, during African Lion 2025, the largest US Africa Command joint exercise. His body was recovered in the water approximately one mile from the disappearance site.
Apr 27, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Polisario Front Fighters Killed in Moroccan Drone Strike on Sand Wall
Three Polisario Front fighters, including Lehbib Mohamed Abdelaziz — son of the movement's founding leader and a secretariat member — were killed during an operation against Morocco's Sand Wall.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
Algeria Breaks Ground on Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline
Algeria commenced construction of its section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a 4,100-kilometer conduit projected to cost upward of $13 billion that will eventually connect Nigerian gas fields through Niger to Algeria and onward to European markets.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Two U.S. Army Soldiers Missing During Morocco Training Exercise
Two U.S. Army soldiers went missing during a training exercise in Morocco, triggering a joint search-and-rescue operation involving American and allied forces.
Sep 15, 2020
Mixed
Alliance
Abraham Accords: Structural Assessment of Regional Power Consequences
The Abraham Accords, signed September 2020 and expanded to Morocco and Sudan, restructured Middle East security architecture by integrating Israel into CENTCOM, enabling multilateral arms sales and missile defense coordination, and removing Palestinian statehood as a precondition for Arab-Israeli normalization.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Chinese Industrial Investment Concentrates in Morocco as a European and African Gateway
A decade after the Morocco-China strategic partnership, trade volumes have grown substantially and Chinese investment has shifted toward future-facing industries.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
African Governments Distance Themselves From Pretoria Over Xenophobic Attacks
African governments postponed high-level meetings with South Africa and citizens across the continent boycotted South African cultural events after violent attacks on Black African migrants drove more than 160,000 people out of the country in two months.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Pan-Africanist Critique Frames Continental Crises as Renewed External Domination
The commentary treats Africa's active crises as one system rather than separate emergencies. Sudan's war, resource-driven conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, insurgency in Cabo Delgado
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
South African Anti-Migrant Campaign Strains Southern African Regional Relations
Vigilante groups operating with political backing have mobilised South Africans to force the expulsion of undocumented foreigners, with most of those targeted coming from immediate neighbours.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Ceuta Crossings Reset the European Electoral Calendar on Migration
After about 50,000 migrants crossed into Ceuta and were pushed back, Spain erected a 500-metre sea barrier and twenty-two EU leaders signed a letter demanding action.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China Anchors Africa's Renewable Buildout as Washington Promotes Hydrocarbons
African states are accelerating toward renewable power as fuel import shocks from Ukraine and now the war on Iran expose the cost of hydrocarbon dependence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Fallout Pushes North Africa Toward Economic Instability
The resumption of US-Iran fighting on July 8 has reimposed the Hormuz supply shock on North African economies that spent their buffers in the first round: Tunisia nearly depleted emergency reserves when oil passed 100 dollars against a 63 dollar budget assumption, and Egypt imposed nighttime blackouts after Israel declared force majeure on gas exports.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Cuba Rebuts U.S. Pressure Campaign as Underestimating Its Resilience
A senior Cuban official publicly framed intensified U.S. pressure as an effort to force the island into greater dependence on Washington, while acknowledging it has isolated Cuba and pushed foreign investors out.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Legal
South Africa's Anti-Immigrant Policy Turn
Amid rising xenophobic mobilization and a 30 June deadline issued by anti-immigrant groups, President Ramaphosa has endorsed crackdowns and a finalized National Labour Migration Policy with employment quotas, while a draft bill would reserve sectors for citizens.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Ambassador Kushner Strains U.S.-France Diplomatic Relations
Trump's ambassador to France, Charles Kushner, has repeatedly clashed with Paris over his accusations that France does not do enough on antisemitism, his suggestion that the U.S. grant refugee status to French Jews, and his refusal to report to the Foreign Ministry after being summoned twice.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
South Africa DA Cabinet Reshuffle Backlash Strains Coalition
DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis unilaterally proposed replacing DA ministers and deputy ministers in President Ramaphosa's cabinet, including demoting former DA leader and Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen, without consulting senior party leadership.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
UN Peace Operations Chief Consults Mauritania During MINURSO Strategic Review
Jean-Pierre Lacroix, UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations, conducted consultations in Nouakchott with Mauritania's Foreign Minister and Armed Forces Chief of Staff as part of the ongoing strategic review of MINURSO's mandate.
Date unknown
Stable
Legal
EU Pact on Migration and Asylum Enters into Force
The EU's Pact on Migration and Asylum, a ten-regulation framework governing the full migration lifecycle, is scheduled to enter into force on June 12, 2026.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Spain Launches Mass Migrant Regularization Program
Spain is preparing an executive-decree-based regularization program that could grant temporary residence and work permits to hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants.
War / Africa
Ethiopia's multi-front war deepens as Pretoria collapses, a regional counter-axis hardens, and Abiy's supermajority locks in insurgent grievances.
War / Africa
Sudan's war grinds on as US chemical weapons sanctions, Iranian drone contracts, and a Russian basing deal entrench both sides.
Algeria provides Polisario with Tindouf camp territory, weapons, logistics, and primary diplomatic sponsorship at the UN and African Union.
South Africa offers SADR formal diplomatic recognition and AU advocacy.
Cuba provides longstanding political solidarity and legacy military training support to Polisario.