Cuba
Cuba retains full legal sovereignty with the revolutionary constitution and Communist Party monopoly intact.
PF Score
19
▲1Authority
26
Reach
14
Under construction
The June 2 Russian tanker delivery replicates the March 30 pattern exactly, buying weeks of fuel relief without repairing the grid, reversing regional abandonment, or restoring negotiating leverage with Washington.
Grid collapse and surging protest frequency erode coercive capacity below nominal governance threshold.
Venezuelan patron collapse and regional abandonment leave Russia fuel shipments as sole external lifeline, not projection.
Raul Castro
central node in the network that actually governs Cuba
Raul Castro served as Cuba's president from 2008 to 2018 after succeeding his brother Fidel.
Russia's active oil deliveries to Cuba under a US blockade demonstrate Moscow's continued capacity and willingness to project influence into the Western Hemisphere despite US economic pressure.
Cuba's simultaneous collapse across energy, labor, and foreign exchange pillars represents a structural failure of the post-Soviet socialist economic model, not a cyclical downturn.
Russia is converting Cuba's energy crisis into a strategic opportunity, replacing Venezuela as Havana's primary energy patron and directly challenging U.S. sanctions architecture in the Western Hemisphere.