StateEuropeESPDeclining

Spain

Spain holds its mid-high tier position above Pakistan and Egypt but well below France, with consolidated domestic institutions offset by growing isolation within NATO's operational framework.

PF Score

52

11

Authority

62

Reach

43

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

52Overall11

Spain holds its mid-high tier position above Pakistan and Egypt but well below France, with consolidated domestic institutions offset by growing isolation within NATO's operational framework.

62Auth

Functional state institutions and a decisive sovereign posture on basing rights hold internal control steady, with the ISSP threat actively managed through joint operations with Morocco.

43Reach

NATO isolation from the Iran war posture and the US-Germany convergence against Spain erode bilateral leverage, compressing reach to the EU patron ceiling despite residual Latin American and Algerian network depth.

Dependency Chain
All conflicts

Pedro Sánchez

Pedro Sánchez has led Spain since 2018, governing via a fragile minority coalition dependent on small left-wing and regional parties.

Al Jazeera·NewsJun 23, 2025

Spain's airspace and basing denial to US forces marks a concrete degradation of US military operational access within NATO's southwestern flank, not merely a symbolic protest.

WideningMajor Update
Foreign Policy·Analytical / LongformMar 31, 2026

ISSP has completed an organizational transition from regional insurgency to transnational external operations hub, with IS central command actively managing this shift to compensate for Iraq-Syria heartland losses.

WideningMajor Update
Reuters·NewsMar 26, 2026

Iran is converting Hormuz access into a bilateral diplomatic instrument, rewarding states that condemned U.S.-Israeli strikes with preferential transit rights.

NarrowingMajor Update