HybridMiddle EastStable

Hamas

Hybrid

The dominant structural driver this cycle is Israeli territorial consolidation in Gaza, with Israel controlling roughly 60 percent of the strip, aid at 80 percent below pre-war levels, and the NCAG barred from entry.

PF Score

10

1

Authority

11

Reach

9

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

10Overall1

The dominant structural driver this cycle is Israeli territorial consolidation in Gaza, with Israel controlling roughly 60 percent of the strip, aid at 80 percent below pre-war levels, and the NCAG barred from entry.

11Auth5

Israel controls 60 percent of Gaza, paralyzing Hamas governance capacity.

9Reach1

Patron fracture and IRGC funding disruption eliminate external leverage channels.

Dependency Chain
IranHamas
Depth: Agent
All conflicts
Unknown·NewsJan 1, 2025

Israel has struck the IRGC's central budget management headquarters in Tehran — the institutional node coordinating financial flows across Iran's entire security and proxy architecture.

NarrowingMajor Update
TASS·NewsApr 1, 2025

Israel's publicly articulated sequential campaign doctrine — Iran first, then Hezbollah, then Gaza — signals a sustained multi-theater offensive posture with no near-term terminal condition.

NarrowingMajor Update
Financial Times·Analytical / LongformJul 15, 2025

Israel has structurally shifted from a short-war, decisive-campaign security doctrine to an open-ended, pre-emptive multi-front posture without a diplomatic consolidation track.

MixedMajor Update