Hamas
Hybrid
The dominant structural driver this cycle is Israeli territorial consolidation in Gaza, with Israel controlling roughly 60 percent of the strip, aid at 80 percent below pre-war levels, and the NCAG barred from entry.
PF Score
10
▼1Authority
11
Reach
9
Under construction
The dominant structural driver this cycle is Israeli territorial consolidation in Gaza, with Israel controlling roughly 60 percent of the strip, aid at 80 percent below pre-war levels, and the NCAG barred from entry.
Israel controls 60 percent of Gaza, paralyzing Hamas governance capacity.
Patron fracture and IRGC funding disruption eliminate external leverage channels.
Israel has struck the IRGC's central budget management headquarters in Tehran — the institutional node coordinating financial flows across Iran's entire security and proxy architecture.
Israel's publicly articulated sequential campaign doctrine — Iran first, then Hezbollah, then Gaza — signals a sustained multi-theater offensive posture with no near-term terminal condition.
Israel has structurally shifted from a short-war, decisive-campaign security doctrine to an open-ended, pre-emptive multi-front posture without a diplomatic consolidation track.