Oman
Hormuz mediation and GCC fracture slightly lift Oman's leverage.
PF Score
46
▲1Authority
53
Reach
40
Under construction
Hormuz mediation and GCC fracture slightly lift Oman's leverage. Muscat now sits just above Taiwan and near Jordan and Qatar, because its neutrality is converting regional polarization into diplomatic access even as Iranian coercion keeps domestic and maritime vulnerability from improving further.
Iranian strike exposure tests but does not break state control.
Mediation niche gains value as Gulf camps split.
Iran's ability to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed after weeks of US-Israeli strikes shows that severe battlefield damage has not eliminated Tehran's most consequential coercive lever.
US strikes on Iran during active nuclear negotiations widen the gap between Washington's claimed diplomatic leadership and its exercised coercive behavior.
The United States avoided a major credibility loss by recovering a downed airman before Iran could convert the shootdown into coercive leverage.