Lebanon
Lebanese state technically persists but enters prolonged institutional paralysis. No president for 2+ years (2022-2025). Multiple failed government formations.
PF Score
17
▼1Authority
22
Reach
13
Under construction
Israeli buffer-zone expansion locks Lebanon into near-floor weakness.
State orders remain unenforceable against Hezbollah and Israel.
External voice exists, but others set outcomes inside Lebanon.
Israel's escalating campaign in Lebanon is producing a structural paradox: military pressure is degrading Hezbollah's physical infrastructure while simultaneously destroying the political conditions under which Lebanon's most capable reformist government could achieve Hezbollah's disarmament through state consolidation.
Israel's latest strike wave in Beirut and southern Lebanon shows it retains escalation dominance in the air domain against Hezbollah's core geography.
Israel's expansion of a buffer zone covering ~10% of Lebanese territory marks a structural shift from temporary military operations to de facto occupation of southern Lebanon, with Netanyahu publicly ordering further expansion.