Escalating / Middle East
Iraq ISIS and PMF Insurgency
Iraq's militia disarmament has collapsed as the US-Iran war pulls every security lever toward Tehran.
Somalia
Al-Shabaab has been fighting to overthrow Somalia's government and impose Islamist rule since 2006, when it emerged from the wreckage of a US-backed Ethiopian invasion that toppled the Islamic Courts Union.
The deeper collapse goes back to 1991, when the Somali state dissolved and never fully reassembled. The group formally joined al-Qaeda in 2012 and now taxes businesses, telecoms, and charcoal exports across southern Somalia for over $100 million a year. Against it stand the Federal Government, African Union troops from Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, and Uganda, and a US air campaign that has run more than 500 strikes since 2007.
Al-Shabaab has no state sponsor and is still standing.
The US funding withdrawal, formalized July 1, removes the logistics and financial architecture underpinning a twenty-year stabilization operation in a single stroke, with Washington also blocking UN logistical support while declining to veto mandate renewal.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The US funding withdrawal is structurally more damaging than a troop drawdown: it removes the logistics and financial base for the entire AUSSOM mission, including Somali security forces.
Turkey's patron position is now self-reinforcing across commercial, military, and soft-power channels simultaneously; the F-16 deployment marks the crossing from deniable advisory to direct operational stake.
The Bab el-Mandeb corridor is hardening into a layered proxy arena where Turkish air and ground assets, Egyptian AUSSOM troops, the Emirati Berbera base, and Saudi Red Sea volume increases are converging.
AMISOM's successor mission AUSSOM assumed operations as al-Shabaab retained control of large rural areas and continued high-profile attacks against government and civilian targets.
The Federal Government of Somalia declared an all-out war on al-Shabaab, launching ground offensives backed by clan militias that recaptured significant territory in central Somalia.
The US significantly escalated airstrikes under loosened rules of engagement, conducting over 100 strikes annually; al-Shabaab responded with mass-casualty bombings, including a Mogadishu truck bomb killing over 500 people.
Al-Shabaab, formed from ICU remnants, formally affiliated with al-Qaeda after a 2011–2012 AU-led offensive had pushed them out of Mogadishu and major cities into rural strongholds.
The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) deployed to support the transitional government, beginning a peacekeeping presence that would grow to over 22,000 troops.
The Islamic Courts Union seized control of much of southern Somalia, including Mogadishu, before a US-backed Ethiopian invasion expelled them within months.
US forces suffered 18 deaths in the "Black Hawk Down" Battle of Mogadishu, prompting a full American withdrawal and reinforcing Western reluctance to intervene militarily in Somalia.
The Somali state collapsed after the fall of Siad Barre's dictatorship, leaving no functioning central government and creating a power vacuum that persisted for over a decade.
PRO-GOVERNMENT
Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, Uganda troops
Jul 24, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Uganda Enters Late Candidate in UN Secretary-General Race
Uganda's president submitted the candidacy of a former UN under-secretary-general and longtime domestic rival, arriving after the public interviews and one week before Security Council straw polls open.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
US Ebola Travel Ban Strands Citizens and Offshores Quarantine to Kenya
The Trump administration issued a travel ban on July 13 barring entry to the United States for anyone who has traveled in the Democratic Republic of Congo during the Ebola outbreak, stranding hundreds of American citizens abroad.
Jul 12, 2026
Stable
Other
Death of Former Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani
Qatar announced the death at 74 of former emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the architect of the country's transformation into a gas-funded global broker.
Jul 1, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Ends Funding for African Union Somalia Mission After December
The United States notified the African Union on 1 July that it will not fund the Somalia stabilisation mission beyond 31 December and will block United Nations logistical or operational support, while declining to veto a mandate renewal.
Jul 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Ties NATO Allied Benefits to 5 Percent Defence Spending Ahead of Ankara Summit
Washington's NATO ambassador framed the upcoming Ankara summit as a measurement of progress toward Trump's 5 percent GDP defence-spending demand, promising procurement priority and leadership access to compliant allies and tough talks for those who restricted US airspace or base access during the Iran war.
Jun 25, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Somalia Caught Between U.S. Extradition Pressure and Clan Politics Over Eidleh
Somali intelligence arrested Abdikerm Eidleh, a central figure in the Minnesota pandemic fraud scheme charged with 31 felonies, in Mogadishu on June 25 after U.S. cellphone geolocation located him.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Kenya's Deepening US Ties Fuel Public Anger and Protests
Public anger is mounting in Kenya as President Ruto deepens ties with the Trump administration, focused on a US-funded Ebola quarantine facility in Nanyuki that drew deadly protests, with three killed.
Jun 3, 2026
Mixed
Political
Barkey Testimony on Turkey's Slide Into Personalist Rule
Expert testimony before a U.S. congressional human rights commission frames Turkey's transformation into a personalist regime built around Erdogan, with state institutions reconfigured to secure his continuity.
Jun 1, 2026
Escalating
Political
Ruto Madaraka Day Address in Wajir and Kenyan-Somali Elite Consolidation
President Ruto held Kenya's Madaraka Day celebration in Wajir — the first in the northern region — delivering development pledges and sustaining the suspension of the ID/passport vetting process for Kenyan-Somalis.
May 14, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
AFRICOM Commander Congressional Testimony on Africa Counter-Terrorism Posture FY2027
AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson testified before both the Senate and House Armed Services Committees in May 2026, publicly documenting a structural intelligence gap in the Sahel caused by basing losses, allied withdrawals, and coup-driven diplomatic ruptures.
May 2, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Somali Piracy Resurgence in Western Indian Ocean
Multiple pirate attacks off Somalia's coast in April–May 2026, including the seizure of the Eureka oil tanker on 2 May and hijackings of merchant vessels Honour 25 and Sward, prompted the Joint Maritime Information Center to raise its piracy threat to 'severe.' The resurgence coincides with multinational naval patrols being stretched thin by redeployments to the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 11, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Gen Z-Led Anti-Elite Protest Wave in African Multiparty States
A cross-country wave of youth-led, digitally mobilized protests is challenging entrenched political elites in African multiparty systems.
Apr 10, 2026
Escalating
Other
Turkey Launches First Overseas Deep-Sea Drilling Mission off Somali Coast
Turkey deployed its first overseas deep-sea drilling vessel off the Somali coast, operationalizing a multi-year strategy integrating military training, port and airport investment, maritime cooperation, and energy exploration in Somalia.
Mar 27, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
African Union Rejects Endorsement of Macky Sall UN Secretary-General Bid
The African Union Commission confirmed that a draft decision endorsing former Senegalese president Macky Sall for UN Secretary-General failed after 20 member states objected, while Senegal separately disavowed his candidacy.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
Somalia Federal Legitimacy Crisis: Presidential Term Extension Dispute
Somalia's federal parliament passed constitutional amendments in March 2026 extending presidential and parliamentary terms from four to five years, which the Hassan Sheikh Mohamud government claims applies retroactively to the current administration, pushing his term expiry to May 2027.
Jan 30, 2026
Escalating
Military
Türkiye Deploys F-16s to Somalia, Escalating to Direct Operational Role
Türkiye deployed F-16 fighter jets to Somalia on January 30 to protect its expanding strategic assets and back Mogadishu's campaign against Al-Shabaab, marking a shift from training and advisory support to direct operations.
Jan 28, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-African Union Launch Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group
The United States and the African Union Commission established the Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group to coordinate investment in African transport, energy, digital infrastructure, and critical mineral supply chains.
Jan 14, 2026
Escalating
Legal
United States Freezes Visa Processing for Applicants from 75 Countries
The United States announced an indefinite halt to visa processing for applicants from seventy-five countries, extending an already expanded travel-ban architecture.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Egypt Rejects Somaliland Recognition and Expands Horn of Africa Stabilization Posture
Egypt publicly framed Red Sea security as inseparable from state sovereignty in the Horn of Africa and reiterated categorical opposition to external recognition of Somaliland, explicitly citing Ethiopia's 2024 bid and Israel's 2025 recognition.
Dec 10, 2025
Mixed
Military
AFC/M23 Capture of Uvira and Burundi's Military Deployment in Eastern DRC
AFC/M23 rebels, backed by the Rwandan army, seized Uvira — South Kivu's provisional capital — just six days after a Washington-brokered peace agreement between DRC and Rwanda.
Oct 22, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey Consolidates Middle-Power Commercial Position in Sub-Saharan African Electric Sector
Turkey has signed twenty energy and mining partnership agreements with African states as of October 2025, backed by over $100 billion in completed EPC contracts since 2003 and nearly 20 percent of the international EPC market in Africa.
Jul 18, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Ebola Outbreak Detected in DR Congo Ituri Province
Preliminary laboratory confirmation of Ebola in Ituri province, DR Congo, with 65 deaths and 13 of 20 samples testing positive.
Jun 29, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Turkey Convenes Middle-Power Coordination at Antalya Diplomacy Forum
Turkey used the Antalya Diplomacy Forum to advance a regionalist response to perceived U.S. unreliability, urging neighboring states to manage security and political crises with less dependence on Washington.
Jun 10, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Kenya Ebola Quarantine Facility Protests Turn Lethal
Kenyan police killed at least one protester and deployed tear gas and water cannons against hundreds demonstrating against a US-managed Ebola quarantine facility at Laikipia Air Base near Nanyuki.
Jun 7, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Denies Entry to Somali FIFA World Cup Referee
Somali FIFA World Cup referee Omar Artan was denied entry at Miami International Airport on June 7, five days before the tournament's opening match, on unspecified 'vetting concerns' cited by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Jun 3, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Kenya-US Ebola Quarantine Centre Agreement Triggers Tourism Backlash
Kenya's Ruto administration approved an agreement with the United States to establish an Ebola treatment facility for American patients at Laikipia Air Base, approximately 200km north of Nairobi.
Jun 3, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Kenya High Court Suspends U.S. Ebola Quarantine Unit at Laikipia Air Base
Kenya's High Court extended its suspension of the Trump administration's plan to establish a quarantine facility for Ebola-exposed Americans at Laikipia Air Base, delaying any resolution until at least June 23.
Jun 2, 2025
Mixed
Political
Ethiopia Federal Election Under Multi-Front Conflict Conditions
Ethiopia held federal elections on June 2, 2025, with Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party projected to win a second five-year term in a landslide.
Jun 2, 2025
Mixed
Legal
US-Kenya Ebola Quarantine Facility Blocked by Kenyan Courts
Washington and Nairobi negotiated the establishment of a 50-bed Ebola quarantine facility in Laikipia, Kenya, intended to isolate American patients infected during the DRC outbreak before repatriation.
May 30, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Kenyan Court Halts US-Managed Ebola Quarantine Facility at Laikipia
A Kenyan court issued a conservatory order blocking the opening of a 50-bed US-managed Ebola quarantine facility at Laikipia Air Base, hours before its scheduled launch.
May 29, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
AU Peacekeeping Casualty Opacity and Institutional Accountability Gap Exposed
An ISS analysis reveals that the African Union has never publicly released fatality data from its Peace Support Operations, despite estimated deaths in Somalia alone potentially reaching 8,000 — exceeding total UN peacekeeping deaths since 1948.
May 22, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Mogadishu Armed Clashes Over Presidential Term Extension
Government forces and militia loyal to former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Minister Hassan Khayre engaged in sustained urban combat in Mogadishu, involving mortars and rocket-propelled grenades.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Ebola Epidemic Declared in Eastern Congo and Uganda — WHO Issues Unprecedented PHEIC
Congo formally declared an Ebola epidemic in Ituri province on May 15, 2025, following laboratory confirmation of multiple cases and dozens of suspected deaths. Spread into Uganda was confirmed shortly after.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Somalia Presidential Term Dispute and Opposition Legitimacy Withdrawal
Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud refused to acknowledge the expiry of his term on 15 May 2025, citing constitutional amendments extending his mandate from four to five years.
May 11, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
France Africa Forward Summit, Nairobi
France convenes approximately 20 African heads of state and hundreds of business leaders in Nairobi for the Africa Forward summit, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy away from francophone Sahel states toward anglophone and southern African partners.
Apr 26, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Kitui and Meru Herder-Farmer Clashes Amid Pre-Election Tensions
Armed Somali camel herders killed seven people in Kitui county on 26 April in a revenge cycle tracing to late March killings, with a further killing in Ukasi on 28 April.
Apr 24, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak Spreads Across DRC and Uganda
A Bundibugyo-species Ebola outbreak, likely originating as early as January 2025, had reached 534 confirmed cases and 93 deaths across DRC's Ituri province and Uganda by early June 2025.
Apr 22, 2025
Escalating
Political
US Senate Moves to Confirm Frank Garcia as Africa Bureau Chief
The US Senate is proceeding with a group confirmation vote for 49 Trump appointees, including Frank Garcia as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs — the first Senate-confirmed bureau chief since Molly Phee's departure at the end of the Biden administration.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Hormuz Shipping Disruption Transmits Fuel and Fertilizer Price Shocks to Horn of Africa
Commercial shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, attributed to the Iran War, have generated cascading fuel and fertilizer price shocks reaching the Horn of Africa.
Apr 8, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Burundi Positions Itself for Strategic US Security and Critical Minerals Partnership
The article identifies an emerging alignment in which Burundi seeks greater state leverage over its mining sector while presenting itself as a security and diplomatic partner for the United States.
Apr 8, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Israel Formally Recognizes Somaliland
Israel's recognition of Somaliland materially upgrades Hargeisa's external legitimacy and gives Israel a potential strategic foothold near the Bab el-Mandeb.
Mar 30, 2025
Mixed
Military
Somali Federal Army Seizes Baidoa from South West State Forces
Somalia's national army took control of most of Baidoa, capital of South West state, following clashes with regional forces after the state administration declared a break with the federal government.
Jan 27, 2025
Mixed
Military
Somali Federal Army Seizure of Baidoa from South West State Forces
Somalia's federal army (SNA) seized control of most of Baidoa, capital of South West state, following armed clashes with regional forces.
Dec 1, 2010
Escalating
Military
Uganda Military Eviction of Balaalo Pastoralists
In December 2010, hundreds of Ugandan soldiers and police forcibly evicted Balaalo pastoralist families from their grazing lands, seizing livestock from kraals in a pre-dawn operation coordinated by General David Sejusa, then-head of Uganda's national intelligence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Terminates Women, Peace and Security Programme
Washington has ended its Women, Peace and Security programme, removing the largest single funder from an agenda the UN Security Council established in 2000 and the African Union carried onto the continent.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Pan-Africanist Critique Frames Continental Crises as Renewed External Domination
The commentary treats Africa's active crises as one system rather than separate emergencies. Sudan's war, resource-driven conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, insurgency in Cabo Delgado
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Pretoria Agreement Implementation Stalls as Remobilization Reports Draw External Measures
Nearly four years after the Pretoria Peace Agreement ended the northern Ethiopian war, displaced people remain unable to return, contested territories are unresolved, and elections restoring constitutional legitimacy have not been held.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Horn of Africa Conflicts Converge on the Bab el-Mandeb Corridor
Sudan's war is merging with the Ethiopia and Eritrea rivalry as Asmara backs Tigrayan and anti-government forces while the Rapid Support Forces open a Blue Nile front bordering South Sudan's Nuer insurgency.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Kenyan Navy Meth Seizure Exposes Unregistered-Vessel Criminal Economy
The Kenyan Navy's interception of the unregistered dhow MV Mashallah, carrying over a tonne of methamphetamine worth $63.4 million and crewed by six Iranian suspects, revealed the scale of the criminal economy running on unmarked vessels along East Africa's coast.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Turkey Expands Multi-Channel Influence Network Across Africa
Turkey has built one of the fastest-rising external power positions in Africa through an integrated network of drone exports, construction firms, Turkish Airlines connectivity, aid agencies and diplomatic expansion.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
East Africa Emerges as Contested Indo-Pacific Node
East Africa's ports, mineral wealth, and Red Sea and Indian Ocean chokepoints are drawing intensifying investment from China, the Gulf states, India, and Russia, with the West still holding major aid and investor positions.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Uganda's Post-Museveni Succession Contest Sharpens
The return of Museveni's son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo to frontline politics, a handwritten note from Salim Saleh criticizing army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and Museveni's silence together signal that Uganda's post-Museveni succession battle remains unresolved.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Congressional Hold Blocks F-110 Engine Sale to Turkey
A senior U.S. House lawmaker is blocking a proposed 750 million dollar sale of U.S.-made F-110 jet engines to Turkey, citing concerns about Ankara's foreign ties, and is in a standoff with the Trump administration.
Date unknown
Stable
Alliance
NATO Ankara Summit Southern Neighborhood Engagement Push
Atlantic Council experts recommend NATO use the Ankara summit to institutionalize deeper engagement with its southern neighborhood, citing Iran-war missile and drone attacks on Turkey and a British base in Cyprus as evidence of southern-flank vulnerability.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Ethiopia Multi-Front Conflict Expansion
Ethiopia is transitioning from a contained civil war to a multi-front conflict as the Amhara Fano movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, and a collapsing Tigray settlement exert simultaneous pressure on overstretched federal forces reliant on drone strikes.
Date unknown
Mixed
Political
Ethiopia Election Results Amid Insurgency and Regional Strain
Ethiopia's election delivered a foregone-conclusion victory for Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party, held in a constrained political space where insecurity prevented voting in parts of the country.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Egypt-Eritrea Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement Signed
Egypt and Eritrea signed a maritime transport cooperation agreement establishing a new shipping line connecting their respective Red Sea ports, formalized during a high-level Egyptian ministerial delegation visit to Asmara.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Peacekeeping Funding Cuts Accelerate African Security Architecture Fragmentation
The United States has accumulated US$1.8 billion in arrears to the UN peacekeeping budget, with a congressional subcommittee proposing a 60% reduction in future contributions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Trump FY2027 Budget Proposes 30% State Department Cut and $1.5trn Military Increase
The Trump administration's FY2027 budget request seeks a 30% reduction in State Department funding to $33.6bn, eliminating 10,000 diplomatic personnel and cutting foreign assistance to $20.9bn, while simultaneously requesting a record $1.5trn for the military.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Museveni Seventh-Term Cabinet Unveiled
President Museveni unveiled an 81-minister cabinet following his seventh-term inauguration, extending his rule to at least 2031 — over four and a half decades in power.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
African States Reject U.S. Health Aid Over Data Access Demands
A group of African nations has refused U.S. health assistance after the Trump administration attached conditions requiring access to private health records.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Kenya Ebola Quarantine Facility Agreement
The United States secured an agreement with Kenya to establish a 50-bed quarantine facility for American nationals exposed to Ebola in the DRC.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Deployment of Public Health Officers to Kenya for Ebola Quarantine Facility
The Trump administration is preparing to deploy U.S. public health personnel to Kenya to operate a potential quarantine facility for American citizens exposed to Ebola.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Counterterrorism Posture Degradation Amid Fragmented Threat Landscape
The U.S. faces a diffuse terrorism threat with no single dominant actor, spanning al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates in Africa and the Middle East, and ideologically heterogeneous lone actors domestically.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Migrant Boat Capsizes During Turkish Coast Guard Interdiction off Bodrum
A migrant vessel carrying irregular migrants capsized in Turkish waters near Bodrum after allegedly attempting to evade Turkish Coast Guard interception.
Escalating / Middle East
Iraq's militia disarmament has collapsed as the US-Iran war pulls every security lever toward Tehran.
Escalating / Middle East
Iran and Oman finalize Hormuz transit coordinates as US domestic support collapses and munitions stocks hit critical lows.
Al-Shabaab taxation network extracts an estimated $100M+ annually from businesses, telecommunications, and charcoal exports across southern Somalia.
TURKSOM-trained Somali National Army units, produced through Ankara's Mogadishu base, serve as the primary ground-force multiplier for FGS offensive operations.
Turkish F-16 detachment deployed January 2026 converts Ankara's advisory role into direct operational air cover.
Egypt's projected AUSSOM contingent of up to 15,000 troops serves as Cairo's principal forward instrument for Red Sea coalition-building and a structural bid.
Emirati base at Berbera in Somaliland, expanding alongside Israel's recognition of Somaliland.