Escalating / Middle East
Iran-Israel/US War
A preliminary U.S.-Iran MOU halts active hostilities and reopens Hormuz talks, but nuclear terms remain bitterly contested and structurally unresolved.
Al-Shabaab has been fighting to overthrow Somalia's government and impose Islamist rule since 2006, when it emerged from the wreckage of a US-backed Ethiopian invasion that toppled the Islamic Courts Union.
The deeper collapse goes back to 1991, when the Somali state dissolved and never fully reassembled. The group formally joined al-Qaeda in 2012 and now taxes businesses, telecoms, and charcoal exports across southern Somalia for over $100 million a year. Against it stand the Federal Government, African Union troops from Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, and Uganda, and a US air campaign that has run more than 500 strikes since 2007.
Al-Shabaab has no state sponsor and is still standing.
Trajectory
Somalia's federal legitimacy crisis deepened through May 2026 as Puntland and Jubaland formalized their withdrawal of recognition from President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud after parliament's retroactive term extension pushed his mandate to May 2027.
The Puntland deadline passed without resolution, converting what began as a constitutional dispute into a durable fracture of the federal architecture built over 15 years of internationally supported state-building.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Analysis
The Puntland-Jubaland legitimacy withdrawal is structurally more dangerous than the 2022 Farmaajo standoff: opposition coordination is tighter, the constitutional pretext is weaker.
Al-Shabaab's strategic position is partly self-reinforcing at this juncture: federal-regional deadlock prevents the SNA force concentration and clan-mobilization campaigns that drove 2022-2023 territorial gains.
The piracy resurgence introduces a compounding second-front problem: the Eureka seizure's far-offshore profile and evidence of a possible third group with greater sophistication suggest an expansion of operational.
Historical Context
The Somali state collapsed after the fall of Siad Barre's dictatorship, leaving no functioning central government and creating a power vacuum that persisted for over a decade.
US forces suffered 18 deaths in the "Black Hawk Down" Battle of Mogadishu, prompting a full American withdrawal and reinforcing Western reluctance to intervene militarily in Somalia.
The Islamic Courts Union seized control of much of southern Somalia, including Mogadishu, before a US-backed Ethiopian invasion expelled them within months.
The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) deployed to support the transitional government, beginning a peacekeeping presence that would grow to over 22,000 troops.
Al-Shabaab, formed from ICU remnants, formally affiliated with al-Qaeda after a 2011–2012 AU-led offensive had pushed them out of Mogadishu and major cities into rural strongholds.
The US significantly escalated airstrikes under loosened rules of engagement, conducting over 100 strikes annually; al-Shabaab responded with mass-casualty bombings, including a Mogadishu truck bomb killing over 500 people.
The Federal Government of Somalia declared an all-out war on al-Shabaab, launching ground offensives backed by clan militias that recaptured significant territory in central Somalia.
AMISOM's successor mission AUSSOM assumed operations as al-Shabaab retained control of large rural areas and continued high-profile attacks against government and civilian targets.
PRO-GOVERNMENT
Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, Uganda troops
Continue With
All conflictsEscalating / Middle East
A preliminary U.S.-Iran MOU halts active hostilities and reopens Hormuz talks, but nuclear terms remain bitterly contested and structurally unresolved.
Escalating / Global
The Trump-Xi Beijing summit locked in a managed-coexistence framework that structurally advantages Beijing while U.S. coalition architecture fragments at multiple.
Proxy Network
Al-Shabaab taxation network extracts an estimated $100M+ annually from businesses, telecommunications, and charcoal exports across southern Somalia.
Turkey-trained Somali National Army units, produced through Ankara's Mogadishu military base.
US special forces and airstrike architecture provides intelligence fusion and precision targeting support to federal forces, with 500+ strikes since 2007.
AU Mission (ATMIS/AUSSOM) troop contributors from Ethiopia, Kenya, Burundi, and Uganda supply the bulk of peacekeeping presence.
Egypt's expanding Horn footprint, anchored in anti-Ethiopia diplomacy and AU stabilization participation.
Battle Deaths
Negotiated Agreements
Nov 26, 2008
AgreementDecision of the High Level Committee, Djibouti Agreement
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: United Nations (UN) Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia, Mr. Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, mediated the negotiations, which were hosted by the Government of Djibouti.
Oct 26, 2008
AgreementJoint Declaration between the Transitional Federal Government and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Aug 19, 2008
AgreementDjibouti Agreement
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: United Nations (UN) Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia, Mr. Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, mediated the negotiations, which were hosted by the Government of Djibouti.
Dec 22, 1997
AgreementThe Cairo Declaration on Somalia
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: Egypt
Mar 24, 1994
AgreementNairobi Declaration on National Reconciliation
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: UN
Mar 27, 1993
AgreementAddis Ababa Agreement
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: United Nations