StateAfricaSOM

Somalia

The Baidoa seizure and Laftagareen resignation confirm Mogadishu can impose outcomes on resistant federal units through force, nudging authority marginally upward from the prior score.

PF Score

25

Authority

40

Reach

16

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

25Overall

The Baidoa seizure and Laftagareen resignation confirm Mogadishu can impose outcomes on resistant federal units through force, nudging authority marginally upward from the prior score.

40Auth

Coercive federal seizure of Baidoa advances central grip marginally.

16Reach

No external projection capacity; influence confined to internal federal disputes.

Depth: None
Allies & Partners0

No allied relationships

All conflicts

Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen

Laftagareen served as President of South West State, one of Somalia's federal member states.

Al Jazeera·NewsMar 30, 2026

Somalia's federal government has demonstrated a willingness to use military force to resolve center-periphery disputes, seizing Baidoa and removing a resistant regional president ahead of a contested national election.

NarrowingMajor Update
Reuters·NewsDec 9, 2024

Somalia's federal government has set a precedent by using military force to resolve a federal-regional political dispute, removing a sitting regional president and seizing his capital.

NarrowingMajor Update
Reuters·NewsMar 30, 2025

Somalia's federal government has demonstrated willingness to use military force to suppress regional defection, temporarily narrowing the gap between nominal and effective federal authority.

MixedMajor Update