Libya
Ukraine's entry into western Libya slightly raises Libya's external relevance.
PF Score
18
Authority
22
Reach
15
Under construction
Ukraine's entry into western Libya slightly raises Libya's external relevance.
Cross-factional oil capture still overrides formal state institutions.
Foreign competition on Libyan soil marginally lifts external salience.
Ukraine's reported basing arrangement in western Libya marks a meaningful expansion of the war with Russia into the central Mediterranean and North Africa.
Haftar's acquisition of Chinese and Turkish combat drones at Al Khadim narrows the power gap between his claimed authority and actual coercive capacity in eastern Libya, with cascading implications for the ceasefire balance and regional proxy networks.
The UN Panel report documents the near-complete capture of Libya's oil governance architecture by competing armed group networks, with the Haftar family's eastern operation now exercising de facto control over the NOC's decision-making pipeline and routing $3bn+ offshore via Arkenu.