War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Ethiopia's multi-front war deepens as Pretoria collapses, a regional counter-axis hardens, and Abiy's supermajority locks in insurgent grievances.
Pro-GNU
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-LNA
Conflict
Libya
Libya has been at war with itself since 2011, when a NATO-backed uprising killed Muammar Gaddafi and destroyed the institutions he had hollowed out over 42 years of one-man rule.
The country split in two in 2014 and has stayed split. The Government of National Unity (GNU) holds Tripoli and the west, backed by Turkish troops and drones. The Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar holds the east, backed by the UAE, Egypt, and roughly 1,500 Russian personnel now operating as Africa Corps. A UN ceasefire froze the front line in 2020.
It also froze Russian and Turkish forces fifty miles apart on Libya's coast, where they remain.
Late-July power-cut protests in Tripoli, where demonstrators blocked roads, shut central bank branches, and briefly halted a major oil and gas complex, exposed the structural failure that the US-brokered family compact is being built on top of.
It matters because the civil war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The US compact's load-bearing assumption is Libyan oil output tripling to three million barrels per day.
The late-July protests are a structural warning that cuts across the deal's legitimacy: demonstrators demanded removal of both rival governments simultaneously.
Italy's public rupture with Washington over the Iran war removes Rome as a stabilizing diplomatic backstop in Tripoli at the moment the framework most needs external anchoring.
War / Africa
Ethiopia's multi-front war deepens as Pretoria collapses, a regional counter-axis hardens, and Abiy's supermajority locks in insurgent grievances.
War / Africa
Sudan's war grinds on as US chemical weapons sanctions, Iranian drone contracts, and a Russian basing deal entrench both sides.
Africa Corps (formerly Wagner, approximately 1,500 personnel) sustains LNA military logistics and provides the eastern command with deniable Russian force.
Turkey-backed western militias provide the GNU with drone capability, training, and force projection under the 2019 military cooperation framework.
Ukrainian covert specialist teams, deployed to Misrata and Mellitah in coordination with the GNU, provide deniable technical capacity on the western front.
Subul al-Salam, a Haftar-affiliated militia, manages institutionalized fuel-smuggling convoys through the Kalinga-Majdoul checkpoint toward Chad and Sudan.
Ahmed Gadalla, a Dubai-based commercial broker tied to Haftar, channels wartime financing into peacetime leverage over eastern Libyan credit and oil markets.