Sudan
The dominant signal this cycle is continuity, not change.
PF Score
19
▼3Authority
27
Reach
14
Under construction
The dominant signal this cycle is continuity, not change. RSF drone strikes on hospitals, resumed pressure on South Kordofan, and the Chad border spillover all extend established patterns rather than marking new structural deterioration or recovery.
RSF re-contestation of South Kordofan erodes SAF's fragile recovery.
Gold export redirection to Egypt, Oman, Qatar signals marginal diversification.
Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan seized power in Sudan's October 2021 coup, sidelining civilian transitional partners.
The collapse of Sudan's gold export relationship with the UAE marks a structural realignment of Sudan's wartime commodity economy away from its historically dominant Gulf partner.
The RSF's establishment of the Sudan Founding Alliance government in Nyala formalizes a de facto partition of Sudan, converting military occupation of Darfur into an institutional sovereignty claim that the SAF-Khartoum government cannot currently counter.
The Tiné drone strike represents a qualitative escalation in Sudan's civil war spillover, with cross-border attacks now producing mass casualties on Chadian soil.