War / Africa
Somalia Al-Shabaab Insurgency
US funding exit collapses AUSSOM logistics by December as Turkey locks in direct air operations and Egypt prepares entry.
Pro-Gangs
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-Government
War
Haiti
Haiti is at war with itself, and the state is losing.
After President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, the resulting power vacuum let rival gangs G9 and Gpep merge into the Viv Ansanm coalition, which now controls roughly 85% of Port-au-Prince, including the main port and international airport. There is no foreign sponsor on the gang side. The fight is funded by kidnapping ransoms, extortion, and tolls on fuel and cargo. On the other side, a Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission of about 1,000 officers, backed by US logistics and funding, props up the Haitian National Police.
A capital city has been captured by criminal coalitions 700 miles from the United States, and the force sent to take it back is outgunned.
The Gang Suppression Force is building toward 5,500 personnel by October, but first-phase operations have exposed the gap between firepower and durable control: roughly 1,600 killed in the first quarter, no senior gang commander confirmed dead, and Viv Ansanm still holding an estimated 90 percent of Port-au-Prince.
Pressure has scattered some gang elements into rural Kenscoff and the Artibonite, but the coalition's urban command structure remains intact.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The GSF's financing gap remains structurally disabling: $113 million received against a $600 million requirement, and the larger authorized force of 5,500 makes the proportional shortfall worse, not better.
The Boyard kidnapping is a deliberate coercive signal: by seizing the official specifically tasked with rebuilding Haiti's armed forces, Ti Bwa demonstrated that no tier of the security apparatus is beyond gang reach.
December 13 elections are structurally compromised before they begin: voter registration excludes the West Department, where Port-au-Prince sits, and roughly a third of the population.
PRO-GANGS
War / Africa
US funding exit collapses AUSSOM logistics by December as Turkey locks in direct air operations and Egypt prepares entry.
War / Americas
De la Espriella takes office August 7, collapsing all Petro peace tracks as U.S. hemispheric primacy doctrine reshapes Colombia's security.
Viv Ansanm coalition: Coordinating command structure merging G9 and Gpep that directs territorial control, coercive taxation.
G9: Core gang bloc within Viv Ansanm supplying urban fighters, port control leverage, and command infrastructure in the capital.
Gpep: Rival gang network folded into Viv Ansanm that extended the coalition's reach into additional neighborhoods and broadened anti-state coordination.
Ti Bwa gang: Semi-autonomous armed group led by Christ-Roi Chéry that kidnapped senior defence official James Boyard and his family.
Gran Grif: Semi-autonomous gang operating primarily in the Artibonite that conducts mass-casualty rural attacks independently of Viv Ansanm's urban command.