War / Africa
Somalia Al-Shabaab Insurgency
Somalia's federal order fractures as Puntland and Jubaland withdraw recognition while Al-Shabaab exploits the political deadlock.
Pro-Gangs
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-Government
War
Haiti is at war with itself, and the state is losing.
After President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, the resulting power vacuum let rival gangs G9 and Gpep merge into the Viv Ansanm coalition, which now controls roughly 85% of Port-au-Prince, including the main port and international airport. There is no foreign sponsor on the gang side. The fight is funded by kidnapping ransoms, extortion, and tolls on fuel and cargo. On the other side, a Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission of about 1,000 officers, backed by US logistics and funding, props up the Haitian National Police.
A capital city has been captured by criminal coalitions 700 miles from the United States, and the force sent to take it back is outgunned.
Trajectory
The UN Gang Suppression Force has moved from authorization to initial deployment, with Chadian advance troops arriving in Port-au-Prince alongside incoming Special Representative Jack Christofides.
The GSF carries broader arrest powers than the prior Kenyan-led MSS and a direct mandate to neutralize gang structures, not merely support police.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across americas.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Analysis
The GSF's decisive constraint remains the gap between authorization and operational strength: at current troop levels it cannot project beyond Port-au-Prince.
U.S. bounties targeting Viv Ansanm and Gran Grif financial networks reflect a structural assessment that gang power is revenue-driven and territorially anchored rather than commander-dependent.
Kenya's domestic exposure, including the Russia recruitment scandal and Gen Z protest pressure on the Ruto government, creates a real constraint on Nairobi's willingness to sustain or expand its MSS commitment.
Historical Context
President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July, creating a power vacuum that accelerated rapid gang expansion across Port-au-Prince and surrounding regions.
Rival gang factions G9 and Gpep, previously enemies, began consolidating territorial control across Haiti's capital amid the political crisis following Moïse's killing.
Gang violence escalated sharply, with armed groups controlling an estimated 60–80% of Port-au-Prince and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians.
In February, the Viv Ansanm coalition launched a coordinated offensive, besieging Port-au-Prince, storming two major prisons and freeing over 4,000 inmates, and seizing the international airport.
Prime Minister Ariel Henry, stranded abroad and unable to return, resigned in March under international pressure; a Transitional Presidential Council was established and Garry Conille was appointed Prime Minister.
A Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS) began deploying in June under UN authorization, with roughly 400 Kenyan police arriving to support the Haitian National Police against gang control.
Despite MSS deployment, Viv Ansanm extended its hold to approximately 85% of Port-au-Prince, with the Haitian National Police suffering sustained casualties and station attacks throughout the year.
PRO-GANGS
Continue With
All conflictsWar / Africa
Somalia's federal order fractures as Puntland and Jubaland withdraw recognition while Al-Shabaab exploits the political deadlock.
War / Americas
Colombia's May 31 election produced a Cepeda frontrunner result as FARC-EMC violence peaked and Total Peace's future hung on the.
Proxy Network
Viv Ansanm coalition: Coordinating network merging G9 and Gpep that directs territorial control, coercive taxation.
G9: Core gang bloc within Viv Ansanm supplying urban fighters, port control leverage, and command infrastructure in the capital.
Gpep: Rival gang network folded into Viv Ansanm that extended the coalition's reach into additional neighborhoods and broadened anti-state coordination.
Gran Grif: Semi-autonomous gang operating primarily in Artibonite that conducts mass-casualty rural attacks independently of Viv Ansanm's urban command.
Chadian advance force (GSF): First non-Kenyan troop contingent of the UN-authorized Gang Suppression Force.
Battle Deaths
Negotiated Agreements
Jul 3, 1993
AgreementThe Governors Island agreement
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: UN, OAS