Escalating / Eurasia
Russia-Ukraine War
Ukraine's systematic oil campaign hits 11 Russian facilities in May as Russia escalates aerial strikes on Kyiv.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought over Nagorno-Karabakh since 1988, when the enclave's ethnic Armenian majority voted to break from Soviet Azerbaijan and join Armenia.
Armenia won the first war in 1994 and held the territory for nearly three decades. Azerbaijan took it back in two offensives: a 44-day campaign in 2020 using Turkish Bayraktar drones, and a 24-hour assault in September 2023 that emptied the enclave of its 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Turkey and Israel arm Azerbaijan. Russia was supposed to defend Armenia under the CSTO mutual defense pact. It did not, and Armenia suspended its membership in 2024. The territorial question is settled.
What replaces Russian influence in the South Caucasus is not.
Trajectory
Turkey's May 2025 Ani Bridge MOU and official bilateral trade initiation represent the most concrete Armenia-Turkey normalization step in years, but Ankara has explicitly conditioned border reopening on Armenia's June 7 electoral outcomes, embedding Azerbaijani political leverage directly into the timeline.
It matters because the territorial dispute continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across eurasia.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Analysis
Turkey's normalization with Armenia is a Middle Corridor infrastructure play conditioned on Azerbaijani political approval, not a genuine bilateral peace gesture.
The Iran conflict has created a durable transit asymmetry: Armenia loses southern corridor redundancy while Azerbaijan and Georgia gain transit revenue and strategic relevance.
Azerbaijan is deliberately managing its patron relationships bilaterally rather than as a bloc, deepening ties with Turkey, Israel, Italy.
Historical Context
Ethnic Armenian majority in the Soviet enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh voted to unify with Armenian SSR, triggering intercommunal violence and the start of the first war with Azerbaijan.
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence as the USSR collapsed, transforming an internal Soviet dispute into a full interstate war over the enclave.
A Russian-brokered ceasefire ended the first war with Armenian forces controlling Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani districts, displacing roughly 700,000 Azerbaijanis.
Azerbaijan launched a 44-day offensive in September using Turkish-supplied Bayraktar drones, recapturing all surrounding districts and parts of Nagorno-Karabakh before a Russian-brokered ceasefire on November 10.
Azerbaijani forces briefly seized Armenian sovereign territory in September, killing over 200 Armenian soldiers, exposing the CSTO mutual defense alliance as an ineffective security guarantee for Armenia.
Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour military offensive on September 19, swiftly dissolving the self-declared Artsakh Republic; over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled to Armenia within days, ending Armenian presence in the enclave.
Armenia formally suspended its participation in the CSTO and deepened diplomatic and trade ties with the EU and United States, marking a decisive geopolitical reorientation away from Russia.
Proxy Network
Turkish defense-industrial pipeline: Bayraktar drones and the Baykar-Leonardo joint venture extend Ankara's reach into Azerbaijan's military modernization.
Israeli arms and AI technology channels: Israel supplies roughly 69% of Azerbaijan's major weapons imports and signed a February 2026 AI cooperation agreement.
Ukrainian air-defense and drone network: Ukrainian air-defense specialists deployed inside Azerbaijan provide real-time operational knowledge transfer outside.
Indian defense-industrial node: Armenia is negotiating licensed domestic production of Indian munitions including 155mm shells and Pinaka MLRS systems.
Russian railway concession node: Moscow holds a 2008 management concession over Armenian railways through 2038.
PRO-ARMENIA
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