Azerbaijan is now the gas supplier Europe cannot replace and a full Central Asian member. Aliyev backed Ukraine's borders in public and Moscow could only complain.

Authority

Baku's leadership is unchallenged and increasingly confident in its dealings abroad.

Reach

Gas contracts, the Middle Corridor, and a new regional seat all widen Baku's reach.

Power Profile

Grip at Home: 39 out of 100
Weight: 45 out of 100
Regard: 68 out of 100
Outward Power: 32 out of 100
Growth: 71 out of 100

Dependency Quadrant

Mixed posture: 9 dependents, 4 exposures.

9Dependents4Exposures

Top 15 Snapshots3to18

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Active Conflicts

Armenia-AzerbaijanSimmering

EurasiaTerritorial Dispute

Nagorno-Karabakh AftermathSimmering

EurasiaFrozen Conflict

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Strategic Profile

Authority

Authority footing

Mixed Footing

Reach

Economic scale

$74B

Large Economy

Vulnerability

Defense burden

Heavy Burden

Mobilization mode

Electoral autocracy

Fiscal capacity

Low Capacity

-0

Government effectiveness

Effective Governance

Logistics capacity

Basic Logistics

Trade openness

Mixed Trade

83%

Population base

Mid Population

10M

Capital openness

Closed Capital

Debt service pressure

Moderate Exposure

11%

Defense spending / person

High Priority

$476

Energy position

Net exporter

-256%

Defense spending trend

Rearming

40%

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PF Score