All Conflicts
WarMiddle EastProxy War2014–presentReviewed Apr 5

Yemen Civil War

Delta badges show 30-day net PF movement

Houthis actively firing missiles at Israel; Iran directing Red Sea reactivation amid US-Iran war

Yemen civil war subsumed into broader regional conflict; Bab el-Mandeb threatened as Hormuz remains closed

Escalation Trace

Houthis actively firing missiles at Israel; Iran directing Red Sea reactivation amid US-Iran war

10 phases · 105 events
Apr 2025Apr 2026

Theater

Focus Region

Middle East

Geo-Linked Events

104

2004

The Houthi movement, a Zaidi Shia revivalist group in Sa'ada governorate, launched its first armed uprising against President Saleh's government; founder Hussein al-Houthi was killed by Yemeni forces, but the movement survived six rounds of war through 2010.

2011

Yemen's Arab Spring protests fatally weakened Saleh's grip; he was forced from power in 2012 under a Gulf-brokered deal and replaced by his deputy Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, leaving a power vacuum the Houthis exploited.

2014

Houthi forces seized the capital Sanaa in September, then advanced south; Hadi fled to Aden in early 2015 as the Houthis dissolved parliament and declared their own governing authority.

2015

Saudi Arabia launched Operation Decisive Storm in March, leading a coalition of Arab states with U.S. logistical support, imposing a naval blockade and conducting an air campaign to restore Hadi's government; the intervention failed to dislodge the Houthis and killed an estimated 25,000+ civilians over eight years.

2017

Former president Saleh broke with the Houthis and was killed by them in December, eliminating a key power broker and consolidating Houthi control over northwestern Yemen while deepening the war's fragmentation.

2019

The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council seized Aden from the internationally recognized government, splitting the anti-Houthi camp and opening a second front that formalized Yemen's fracture into multiple competing authorities.

2022

A UN-brokered nationwide truce in April halted major fighting for six months, the longest pause since 2015, though it expired in October without a permanent agreement.

2023

Saudi Arabia and Iran normalized diplomatic relations in a China-brokered deal, removing a key driver of proxy support for opposing sides and opening indirect negotiations that reduced Houthi-coalition hostilities, though no final settlement was reached.

IRAN-HOUTHI: Iran's most militarily capable proxy outside Hezbollah. Houthi missile/drone range expanded from 15km (2011) to 1,000km+ (2025) hitting Riyadh, UAE, Israel, commercial shipping. Red Sea attacks on 100+ vessels 2023-2025 created global economic disruption. US/UK conducted 400+ airstrikes on Yemen — largely ineffective at degrading Houthi capability. SAUDI-UAE SPLIT: UAE shifted from coalition partner to backing STC (separatist) against IRG — creating three-way fragmentation. Pragmatic Iran-Houthi relationship: Houthis exercise strategic autonomy (Oct 7 Houthi escalation not ordered by Iran).

140,000+ total fatalities. World's worst humanitarian crisis per UN at peak. Houthi Red Sea attacks disrupted ~$1 trillion in annual shipping trade. Iran-Saudi Beijing rapprochement was landmark geopolitical realignment reducing direct proxy competition in Yemen.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Claim Coordinated Strike with Iran and Hezbollah on Israel

The Houthis publicly claimed a joint strike with Iranian state forces and Hezbollah against targets in Israel, including Ben Gurion Airport, using a ballistic missile and drones.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Downs Two U.S. Warplanes Amid Ongoing Strait of Hormuz Standoff

Iran's reported downing of two American warplanes demonstrates that U.S. air operations over Iran remain contested despite sustained strikes on Iranian leadership, naval assets, and missile infrastructure.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

United States Launches Operation Epic Fury During Iran Nuclear Talks

The United States launched a new round of strikes against Iran while nuclear negotiations were still underway, extending a pattern established by the earlier 2025 attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Iran Strikes Gulf Civilian Infrastructure

Iran launched drone and missile attacks against infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, with reported damage at civilian and industrial sites including the Borouge petrochemicals plant in Ruwais.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Iranian Missile Campaign Strains Gulf and Allied Interceptor Stockpiles

Iran's sustained use of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones against Gulf states, Israel, and U.S. positions has imposed heavy interceptor expenditure on the United States and its partners.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iranian Drone Strikes Damage Kuwaiti Desalination and Power Infrastructure

Iranian drone attacks damaged two Kuwaiti power and desalination plants, disrupted generating units, and hit additional civilian and energy facilities across the Gulf.

Apr 5, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Iranian Missile and Drone Strikes Push UAE-Israel Security Alignment

Iran's large-scale missile and drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates have increased the immediate security value of Israeli coordination for Abu Dhabi. The event indicates a shift from normalization as diplomatic diversification toward normalization as active security balancing against Iran.

Apr 5, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Trump Threatens Strategic Infrastructure Strikes on Iran Over Strait of Hormuz

The United States, through President Trump, threatened large-scale strikes on Iran's power plants and bridges unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz by a fixed deadline.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US Intelligence Assessment: Iran Retains ~50% Strike Capability After 34 Days of US-Israeli Campaign

A US intelligence assessment assesses Iran retains approximately half its missile launchers and suicide drone stockpiles after over a month of intensive US-Israeli strikes.

Apr 4, 2026Diplomatic exchangeWidening

US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations Collapse Over Incompatible Demands

Active ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran have broken down, with Iran refusing to engage US officials through the Pakistan-led mediator committee and dismissing US terms as unacceptable.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft in Active Conflict Theater

Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft on April 4, 2026 — an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iranian territory and an A-10 over the Persian Gulf — marking the first loss of U.S. aircraft in the conflict. One crew member was rescued, one remained missing.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Iran Resists U.S. Coercive Air Campaign Despite Sustained Strikes

After five weeks of U.S.-led war against Iran, Tehran has not accepted U.S. demands despite more than 12,000 strikes and the killing of senior leaders. Iran's continued resistance, including downing a U.S.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Strikes on Bushehr Nuclear Plant and Iranian Petrochemical Facilities

US-Israeli strikes reportedly hit Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant multiple times and also targeted petrochemical facilities, expanding the campaign from military-nuclear containment into economically significant infrastructure.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Cluster-Warhead Missile Strike Over Central Israel

Iran launched a missile fitted with a cluster warhead toward central Israel, causing light injuries and damage across several cities in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Endures U.S.-Israeli Air Campaign and Seeks Negotiated Off-Ramp

The article describes an ongoing U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran that, by the author's account, has failed to topple the Islamic Republic or sever leadership continuity.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Claims Downing of US Aircraft and Expands Regional Retaliation

The reported event indicates a sharp escalation in direct Iran-US confrontation, with Iran claiming it downed a US A-10 in the Gulf while also announcing attacks on a commercial ship in Bahrain allegedly linked to Israel.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Grants Iraq Exemption From Strait of Hormuz Transit Restrictions

Iran signaled that any transit restrictions it imposes in the Strait of Hormuz would not apply to Iraq, implying Tehran believes it can selectively regulate passage through the waterway. This is a coercive demonstration of exercised maritime influence rather than a purely rhetorical claim.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Strikes Sustain Air Superiority and Target Iran's Reconstitution Pathways

US and Israeli forces continued nationwide strikes in Iran while targeting air defenses, missile-supporting petrochemical infrastructure, state broadcasting, and the Shalamcheh border crossing.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US and Israel Issue Hormuz Ultimatum to Iran

The United States and Israel escalated coercive pressure on Iran by publicly demanding that Tehran open the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Israel escalated coercive pressure on Iran by threatening attacks on its energy infrastructure unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 4, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Air Defenses Down US A-10 Near Strait of Hormuz

Iranian air defenses reportedly shot down a US A-10 near the Strait of Hormuz and also hit US helicopters involved in the rescue effort.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Energy Supply Shock

An ongoing war involving Iran has effectively halted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing transit from approximately 20 million barrels per day to near zero and triggering acute energy shortages across Asia and Africa.

Apr 3, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-Israel Missile Exchange and U.S. Infrastructure Threat Escalation

Iran launched a new missile salvo against Israel on April 3, 2026, with Israeli air defenses activated in response. Simultaneously, U.S. President Trump publicly warned that U.S. forces had yet to begin destroying Iran's remaining infrastructure, naming bridges and energy assets as targets.

Apr 2, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Triggering Global Oil Supply Shock

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, removing up to 16 million barrels per day from global petroleum supply — approximately 15% of pre-war demand. Brent crude rose to $118.35, with projections reaching $146–$200 depending on closure duration, while Dubai crude already exceeded $150.

Apr 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Ultimatum Threatens Strikes on Iranian Infrastructure Over Hormuz Closure

The US president publicly threatened major strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by a new deadline. The threat signals a shift toward coercing Iranian behavior through prospective attacks on state infrastructure rather than only military targets.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Urges Houthi Reactivation of Red Sea Shipping Campaign

Tehran is directing the Houthis to prepare a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping as Iran simultaneously weaponizes the Strait of Hormuz during its second month of war with the US and Israel.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Oil Tanker Near Dubai Amid Ongoing US-Israel Campaign

Iran attacked the fully laden Kuwaiti crude carrier Al-Salmi near Dubai, marking one of the most significant vessel strikes since the US-Israel bombing campaign began over a month ago.

Mar 31, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Pressures Houthis to Prepare Renewed Red Sea Shipping Campaign

Iran is actively pushing the Houthis to prepare a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping as a contingency response to further US escalation in its war with Iran.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Escalatory Phase

One month into coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iran, the conflict has entered a mutual attrition phase.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran — One-Month Assessment

One month into a joint U.S.-Israeli military assault on Iran, significant tactical damage has been inflicted — including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, destruction of Iran's air force and navy, and degradation of its missile and nuclear programs — yet Iran's regime has survived, maintained Hormuz disruption, and imposed severe global economic costs.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israeli War on Iran Spreads: Multi-Front Escalation with Houthi Entry and Diplomacy Overtures

After four weeks of intense US-Israeli bombardment, Iran continues retaliatory missile strikes on Israel while the Houthis have entered the conflict by firing missiles and drones at Israel, threatening to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in addition to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran War Escalation: Hormuz Blockade, Missile Exchanges, and Breakdown of Peace Proposals

A month-old US-Israeli war against Iran has escalated sharply, with Iran maintaining an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, firing missile salvos at Israel, and publicly rejecting US peace proposals as 'unrealistic.' Israel is conducting missile strikes on Tehran military infrastructure and Hezbollah positions in Beirut.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Escalates Amid Trump Mixed Messaging

The United States and Israel have been conducting active military operations against Iran and Lebanon for approximately one month, producing thousands of casualties.

Mar 30, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Israeli War on Iran Triggers Chinese Strategic Reassessment

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has escalated into a regional conflict, threatening Strait of Hormuz transit and disrupting global energy markets.

Mar 29, 2026Institutional reformNarrowing

IRGC-Bonyad Patronage Complex Sustains Regime Cohesion Amid Israeli-U.S. Military Campaign

Despite a sustained Israeli and American air campaign degrading Iran's military leadership and infrastructure, the regime's economic patronage network — anchored in the IRGC's quasi-corporate role and tax-exempt religious foundations — continues to bind millions of loyalists through material incentives.

Mar 29, 2026Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Pakistan Offers to Host US-Iran Peace Talks Amid Active Conflict

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar publicly announced Islamabad's readiness to host and facilitate US-Iran negotiations, claiming both parties had expressed confidence in Pakistan as a mediator. This followed a quadrilateral meeting with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.

Mar 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Houthis Launch Ballistic Missile at Israel, Enter Iran-Israel War

The Houthis fired a ballistic missile targeting Israeli military sites on March 28, 2026, intercepted by Israeli air defenses with no casualties reported. The attack marked the group's formal entry into the broader U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran that began in late February 2026.

Mar 28, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthis Launch Initial Missile Attack on Israel, Enter Iran War

The Houthis fired an ineffective missile strike on southern Israel, marking their formal entry into the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran after weeks of inaction.

Mar 28, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Launch Ballistic Missiles at Southern Israel, Enter Iran-Led Regional War

On March 28, 2026, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) launched two ballistic missiles at southern Israel, both intercepted, formally entering the active theater of Iran's regional war against the US and Israel.

Mar 15, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran IRGC Establishes Hormuz Toll-Booth Regime

Since mid-March 2026, Iran's IRGC has operationalized effective control of the Strait of Hormuz by rerouting commercial shipping through an alternate Iranian-coastline corridor between Qeshm and Larak islands.

Mar 10, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Directs Houthis to Prepare Renewed Red Sea Offensive Amid US-Iran War

Iran is reportedly directing Houthi leadership to prepare a renewed offensive against Red Sea shipping routes, with escalation contingent on US operational choices under Operation Epic Fury.

Mar 9, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

Joint US-Israeli Military Operation Against Iran and Succession of Mojtaba Khamenei

A joint American-Israeli military operation has been targeting Iran's coercive apparatus — IRGC commanders, missile sites, and military installations — for approximately three weeks.

Mar 6, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

United Kingdom Intercepts Iranian Drones Over Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean

The United Kingdom publicly confirmed that RAF Typhoon and F-35 aircraft, backed by support and naval aviation assets, intercepted Iranian drones over the Eastern Mediterranean and Gulf partner states.

Mar 3, 2026Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iranian Drone Strike Damages U.S. Embassy in Riyadh

Iranian drones penetrated Riyadh's defended Diplomatic Quarter and struck the U.S. Embassy compound, heavily damaging secure areas and exposing vulnerabilities in both U.S. force protection and Saudi air defense coverage.

Mar 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Shahed Drone Strike Kills US Soldiers at Kuwait Military Operations Center

An Iranian-designed Shahed drone struck a US military operations center in Kuwait, killing six American soldiers during the first week of a US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran.

Mar 1, 2026Institutional reformMixed

Death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Succession Crisis

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes in February 2026 that killed him and other senior officials while massively degrading Iran's military, nuclear, and security apparatus.

Mar 1, 2026OtherMixed

Death of Ali Khamenei and Appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader

Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, following a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike campaign that killed him alongside senior officials and massively degraded Iran's military, air defenses, missile production, and nuclear facilities.

Mar 1, 2026Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Arab League Formal Condemnation of Iranian Strikes at UNSC

Arab League Secretary-General Aboul Gheit addressed the UN Security Council to formally condemn Iranian missile and drone strikes against Arab state civilian infrastructure — airports, ports, energy facilities, and residential areas — and Iranian actions threatening maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israel Strikes Kill Khamenei, Trigger Iranian Leadership Succession Amid Ongoing War

Beginning February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and multiple senior officials, with Mojtaba Khamenei subsequently installed as the new supreme leader by a clerical council.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israel War Against Iran Derails American Asia Pivot

The Trump administration initiated military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, triggering a sustained conflict requiring a $200 billion Pentagon supplemental budget request.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S. Expends 850+ Tomahawk Missiles in Operation Epic Fury

In the first month of Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the United States fired at least 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles — the largest single-conflict expenditure on record.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israel Joint Military Campaign Against Iran (Operation Epic Fury / Roaring Lion) Launched

The United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, without congressional authorization and with legally contested jus ad bellum justifications.

Feb 28, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Following US-Israeli Military Campaign

Following the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began on 28 February 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and conducted retaliatory strikes on Gulf oil and gas infrastructure, including Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar.

Feb 1, 2026Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Israeli Campaign Against Iran Triggers Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Third Islamic Republic Transition

Coordinated U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian military and political leaders, triggering a succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and a comprehensive Iranian asymmetric counteroffensive.

Oct 18, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Launch Ballistic Missile and Drone Strikes on Israel

After a month's absence from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone attack against southern Israel — all intercepted by the IDF.

Jul 18, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israeli Strikes Destroy 70% of Iran's Steel Production Capacity

Multiple waves of US and Israeli airstrikes have disabled Iran's two largest steel plants, with Netanyahu claiming 70 percent of Iranian steel production capacity has been destroyed. Steel is a dual-use strategic material essential to Iran's missile, drone, and shipbuilding programs.

Jul 18, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Trump Claims Intent to Seize Iranian Oil and Open Hormuz Strait

Trump publicly stated the US intends to 'take' Iran's oil and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, framing prolonged military engagement as economically rational. The US military has simultaneously acknowledged it is not operationally ready to escort vessels through the strait.

Jul 15, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Hegseth Acknowledges Russo-Chinese Intelligence Support to Iran, Signals US Response

US Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed at a Pentagon briefing that Russia and China are actively providing Iran with intelligence on US troop movements, and stated the US is 'addressing it.' This represents a significant trilateral intelligence-sharing challenge to US operational security in the Persian Gulf theater.

Jul 14, 2025Sanctions or economic measureWidening

Gulf Dual Chokepoint Crisis Cascades into North Africa and Sahel

Simultaneous effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridor — triggered by US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation including Houthi escalation — has reconfigured global trade flows at structural scale.

Jul 13, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Pakistan Announces US-Iran Mediation Talks Amid Escalating Regional War

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced Islamabad will host talks between the US and Iran following a regional summit with Turkish, Egyptian, and Saudi diplomats.

Jul 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-U.S.-Israel War: Iranian Hormuz Chokehold Leaves U.S. Strategically Checkmated

Approximately 30 days into a war initiated by Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in June 2025, Iran has leveraged control of the Strait of Hormuz to impose sustained pressure on global energy markets and trade, a contingency the U.S. military was unprepared for.

Jul 10, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

USS Gerald R. Ford Rejoins Operation Epic Fury; Three-Carrier Deployment Established

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is returning to Operation Epic Fury in the Eastern Mediterranean following a five-day maintenance and liberty port visit in Split, Croatia, after a non-combat fire in its laundry spaces.

Jul 8, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

China-Pakistan Joint Ceasefire Proposal for Iran War

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar issued a five-point joint proposal in Beijing calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Iran war, protection of Strait of Hormuz shipping, and launch of peace talks.

Jul 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthi Entry into Iran War Threatens Bab al-Mandab Chokepoint

Houthi entry into an active Iran war has revived fears of a full closure of the Bab al-Mandab strait, compounding disruption already caused by IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Jul 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

African States Refuse Alignment with Iran During Active Conflict

African states, including traditionally Iran-aligned partners, have declined to support Tehran during its ongoing war, with the African Union explicitly calling for de-escalation.

Jul 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Iran-Israel-U.S. War Spills into Gulf, Exposing Gulf State Security Vulnerability

Iranian missiles and drones have struck Gulf state territory — targeting civilian populations, critical infrastructure, and economic corridors — as a consequence of those states hosting U.S. military bases.

Jun 27, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Activates Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Coercive Economic Weapon

Iran has operationalized control of the Strait of Hormuz as a physical blockade, disrupting over a fifth of global oil supply and triggering cascading effects on natural gas, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor production dependent on Gulf-sourced inputs.

Jun 27, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Downs Two U.S. Warplanes During Active Air Operations

Two U.S. warplanes were downed over Iran and the Persian Gulf during what appear to be active U.S.-Israeli air operations against Iran. Iranian forces are actively pursuing a missing third U.S. pilot, demonstrating residual Iranian territorial control and SAM capability.

Jun 26, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Trump Threatens Iran with Escalatory Bombing Amid Active U.S.-Israeli War

President Trump used a televised address to defend U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran and issued an extreme escalatory threat of total destruction. Iran's armed forces responded with warnings of more destructive counterattacks.

Jun 23, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Second Attack on Israel Amid Iranian Bab Al-Mandeb Threat

Houthis executed their second attack on Israel since the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran, while Tehran simultaneously threatened to disrupt shipping through Bab Al-Mandeb.

Jun 22, 2025OtherWidening

Iran Rejects Ceasefire Framework, Conditions Resolution on Guarantees and Compensation

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly rejected a ceasefire framing in favor of a full regional cessation of hostilities, while characterizing US-Iran contacts as informal message exchanges rather than negotiations.

Jun 22, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

U.S.-Israeli Rescue of Downed American Airman in Iran

After Iran shot down a U.S. F-15, the United States successfully recovered the stranded airman from Iranian territory or contested space, with Israeli intelligence support and a localized Israeli pause in strikes to enable the mission.

Jun 21, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Signaling on Bab al Mandeb Amid US-Iran Escalation

As US-Israeli strikes against Iran escalate, the Houthis have signaled willingness to extend disruption operations to the Bab al Mandeb Strait, compounding Iran's restrictions on Hormuz traffic.

Jun 20, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Strikes Prince Sultan Air Base, Destroys U.S. Aircraft

Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, heavily damaging or destroying a U.S. E-3 AWACS radar aircraft and multiple KC-135 refueling tankers, wounding approximately twelve troops.

Jun 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Air Denial Strategy Closes Strait of Hormuz

Iran is employing a distributed drone and missile campaign to deny effective U.S. and commercial use of the Strait of Hormuz despite suffering catastrophic conventional military losses, including roughly 80% of its air defenses and effective elimination of its navy.

Jun 18, 2025Information-cyberMixed

Trump Prime-Time Address Claims Iran Military Destruction While Threatening Further Escalation

Trump delivered a prime-time address asserting Iran's military capabilities — navy, air force, missile programme, nuclear infrastructure — are largely destroyed and claiming effective regime change following the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Jun 17, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Pakistan Offers to Broker US-Iran Ceasefire Talks

Pakistan's Foreign Minister convened a quadrilateral meeting with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt and subsequently announced Islamabad's readiness to host US-Iran negotiations.

Jun 16, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Kharg Island Seizure Amid Active US-Iran Military Conflict

President Trump has publicly threatened to deploy US ground forces to seize Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass, as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate.

Jun 15, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-Houthi Dual-Axis Maritime Chokepoint Escalation

Iranian forces struck Prince Sultan US airbase in Saudi Arabia, injuring 12 American personnel and damaging a high-value E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft. Houthi forces simultaneously resumed long-range missile launches into Israel and threaten Bab-el-Mandeb transit.

Jun 15, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens US Ground Operation to Seize Iran's Kharg Island

President Trump publicly threatened to seize Kharg Island, through which approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports transit, as part of an ongoing US-Iran military conflict exceeding one month in duration.

Jun 13, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Ballistic Missile Strike on Israel During US-Israel-Iran Conflict

The Houthis launched their first confirmed ballistic missile strike on Israel since the onset of the current US-Israeli conflict against Iran, entering after weeks of deliberate restraint.

Jun 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Activates Houthis as Proxy Escalation Vector Against Israel and Gulf Choke Points

Iran is moving to bring the Houthis more directly into its conflict with the US and Israel, with the Houthis launching a missile at Israel for the first time since the Iran-Israel war began. IRGC personnel present in Yemen signal coordinated command rather than autonomous Houthi action.

Jun 7, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftWidening

Saudi Arabia-US Alliance Strain Over Iran War Conduct

Saudi Arabia has reached a critical point of frustration with the Trump administration's management of the US-Iran conflict, driven by Trump's threats against Iranian energy infrastructure, demands that Gulf states fund the war, and public humiliation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Jun 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Multi-Front Iran War Escalation: Gulf Strikes, Hormuz Threat, UAE Travel Ban

Iran and its proxies struck fuel infrastructure at Kuwait International Airport and a Bahraini business facility via drone, while the Houthis launched a missile toward southern Israel, reopening that front after a 19-hour lull.

Jun 4, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthi-Iran-Hezbollah Joint Missile Strike on Israel (Third Operation)

The Houthis launched a ballistic missile at Israel, publicly claiming the operation was conducted jointly with Iran and Hezbollah — marking a notable shift from unilateral to coordinated multi-actor signaling. The missile was intercepted by Israeli air defenses with no casualties or damage.

Jun 3, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Pakistan-China Joint Five-Part Middle East Peace Initiative Launched

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing to align on a joint five-part peace proposal for the Middle East, framing the initiative around ceasefire, diplomatic dialogue, and Hormuz waterway safety.

Jun 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals US Exit from Iran War, Shifts Hormuz Responsibility to Third Parties

Trump publicly declared US military objectives in Iran largely achieved and indicated a withdrawal within two to three weeks, framing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a problem for energy-dependent third parties — particularly China — rather than the US.

Jun 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel War with Iran Creates Strategic Opening for China

The ongoing US-Israel military conflict with Iran is creating compounding strategic advantages for China beyond the theater of direct combat.

May 19, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Emergence of the Global Missile War Era: Iran, Ukraine, and South Asia Conflicts

Concurrent missile conflicts across the Middle East, Europe, and South Asia — involving the US, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, India, and Pakistan — mark a structural inflection in warfare where precision strike capability has proliferated to the point that even middling powers can hold great-power assets at risk.

May 15, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK-Led 40-Nation Coalition Talks on Hormuz Reopening Without U.S.

The United Kingdom convened virtual talks with representatives from over 40 countries to coordinate a response to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz following at least 23 Iranian attacks on commercial vessels.

May 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iranian Ballistic Missile Strike Destroys US E-3 Sentry AWACS at Prince Sultan Air Base

Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles, destroying a US E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft — valued at approximately $300 million and the first combat loss of the type — while damaging several additional military jets.

Apr 23, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran: Ceasefire Signaling and Strait of Hormuz Disengagement Declaration

The United States and Israel are conducting a combined military campaign described as 'systematically crushing' Iranian government capacity. Iran has signaled readiness for a ceasefire contingent on firm security guarantees against future strikes.

Apr 23, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals U.S. Exit from Iran War, Oil Markets React

President Trump announced a U.S. withdrawal from active military engagement in Iran within two to three weeks, claiming the nuclear threat has been neutralized. Oil markets responded with Brent crude briefly falling below $100/barrel.

Apr 17, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Closure if Gulf States Join US-Israeli Campaign Against Iran

Houthi Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour publicly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait — a critical chokepoint controlling sea access to the Suez Canal — if Gulf states join US-Israeli operations against Iran.

Apr 16, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

IRGC Issues Threat Against US Corporate Infrastructure in the Gulf

The IRGC publicly listed 18 US technology and manufacturing companies operating in the Gulf — including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, and Boeing — threatening strikes against them in retaliation for continued US military operations against Iran.

Apr 16, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel War Against Iran: Multi-Front Regional Escalation

Following the US-Israeli assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei through coordinated airstrikes, a regional war has erupted spanning Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and multiple Gulf states.

Apr 16, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran-Israel Multi-Front Escalation: Tehran Strikes, Iranian Counterattack, and Hormuz Standoff

Major strikes hit Tehran and Isfahan province, damaging infrastructure and wounding officials including former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi. Iran responded with what state media called one of its largest-ever missile attacks on Israel, wounding at least 14.

Apr 16, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Trump Prime-Time Address Exposes U.S.-Iran War Strategic Incoherence

Trump's televised address failed to articulate a coherent exit strategy for the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, revealing contradictions between his two-to-three week withdrawal timeline and statements implying extended military presence.

Apr 15, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthi Threat to Red Sea Shipping Resurfaces Amid Iran-Israel War

With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed by the Iran-Israel war, the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait have become the primary alternative oil export corridor for Saudi Arabia, making them a heightened strategic target.

Apr 15, 2025Institutional reformMixed

Iran Leadership Transition to IRGC-Aligned Hardliners Amid Active Conflict

Following the death or incapacitation of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the targeted killing of senior military figures, Iran's power structure has reconsolidated around IRGC-aligned hardliners including parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf and new national security advisor Zolghadr.

Apr 14, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalation: Strikes, Mediation Collapse, and Military Options

U.S.-Israeli strikes hit uranium processing and university infrastructure in Tehran and Isfahan, while Iran struck aluminum plants in Bahrain and UAE and attacked a U.S. airbase in Saudi Arabia, wounding twelve troops.

Apr 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals Intensified Iran Strikes Over Two to Three Week Horizon

Trump publicly committed to dramatically escalating U.S. military operations against Iran, threatening to strike oil and energy infrastructure and invoking a 2-3 week intensification window.

Apr 10, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

U.S. Airstrikes Target Iranian Infrastructure; Iran Strikes Gulf State Facilities

U.S. airstrikes destroyed Iran's largest bridge and a major public health facility, while U.S.-Israeli strikes continued against Iranian targets. Iran retaliated by striking a Kuwaiti desalination plant and oil refinery, and debris from an intercepted missile caused UAE gas facility closures.

Apr 7, 2025Diplomatic exchangeMixed

Zarif Publishes Bilateral Reset Proposal Excluding Gulf States

Former Iranian FM Mohammad Javad Zarif published a Foreign Affairs essay proposing a U.S.-Iran bilateral deal: enrichment capped below 3.67%, IAEA Additional Protocol ratification, full material transfer to a multilateral consortium, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and a bilateral nonaggression pact.

Apr 6, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Dual-Track Escalation Strategy: Horizontal and Vertical Expansion

Following direct US-Israeli strikes, Iran executed a deliberate escalation strategy targeting 14 countries within six days, with the UAE bearing the brunt of over 2,100 drone and missile intercepts.

Apr 5, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Houthi Ballistic Missile Strike on Israel — First Direct Entry into U.S.-Israel-Iran War

Yemen's Houthi movement launched its first ballistic missile barrage targeting Israeli military sites, marking its direct entry into the broader U.S.-Israeli war against Iran that began February 28. The strike was framed as solidarity with Iran and Hezbollah.

Apr 5, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Disrupts Strait of Hormuz Transit Amid US Strike Threats

Iran's virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated strikes on Israel and Gulf states demonstrate its capacity to impose immediate costs on regional shipping and energy flows despite US and Israeli pressure.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel-Iran War: Infrastructure Targeting Phase and Strait of Hormuz Blockade

US and Israeli forces have degraded approximately 70 percent of Iran's steel production capacity and struck its tallest bridge, while Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas transit.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran-Israel Infrastructure War Escalation with Hormuz Blockade

The US-Israeli-Iran war has escalated into systematic mutual infrastructure strikes targeting steel plants, bridges, power grids, refineries, and desalination complexes across the region. Iran has virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas transit.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Hormuz Seizure and Iranian Power Infrastructure

President Trump publicly declared US intent to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and capture Iranian oil revenues, while separately threatening Iranian civilian power plants with no stated timeline for ending hostilities.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Effectively Closes Strait of Hormuz Amid War

Iran has effectively halted normal commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz by creating a credible threat environment rather than imposing a formal legal blockade.

Apr 4, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Shoots Down US F-15 Over Central Iran

Iran claims it destroyed a US F-15 in central Iranian airspace, forcing a live recovery contest over the crew between Iranian and US forces. If accurate, the incident demonstrates that Iran can contest US air superiority over its own territory and impose operational friction on US strike campaigns.

Apr 3, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Iran Sustains Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Primary Coercive Lever

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively blocked commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, using mine deployment, vessel attacks, and passage fee demands.

Apr 3, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

F-15E Strike Eagle Downed Over Iran in First US Combat Aircraft Loss to Hostile Fire

An F-15E Strike Eagle — a two-seat aircraft — was shot down over Iran, marking the first confirmed loss of a US warplane to hostile fire in the US-Iran war that began February 28. One crew member was recovered; the second remained missing with Iran actively searching to capture them.

Apr 2, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Historic Energy Supply Disruption

Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure and restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping have removed over 12 million barrels of oil from global supply since the start of a U.S.-Israel war on Iran.

Apr 2, 2025Diplomatic exchangeWidening

Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War Reveals Strategic Ambiguity

Trump's first major public address on the Iran war in over a month failed to provide a clear endstate, timeline, or operational logic, instead offering contradictory claims of victory alongside announcements of continued heavy strikes over the next two to three weeks.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month with Ground Invasion Under Consideration

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, has entered its second month with no resolution. Iran has sustained retaliatory strikes on U.S. Gulf bases, including damage to an E-3 Sentry AWACS and KC-135 tankers at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

Islamabad Ministerial Quad Establishes Pakistan as US-Iran Facilitation Channel

A four-nation foreign ministers' meeting in Islamabad (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt) produced confirmation that both Washington and Tehran are prepared to engage in diplomacy through a Pakistan-facilitated channel.

Apr 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Gulf States Lobby Trump to Escalate and Extend US-Israeli War Against Iran

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are privately urging the Trump administration not to end the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran until Iranian leadership is fundamentally altered or its military capabilities — including nuclear program, ballistic missiles, proxy networks, and Hormuz control — are neutralized.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Missile and Drone Attacks Resume Against Israel

Houthi forces launched a ballistic missile toward Israeli territory on April 1, following drone attacks on March 30, marking a resumption of direct long-range strikes against Israel. Israeli air defense systems successfully intercepted the projectiles with no reported damage or casualties.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Third Carrier Group and Amphibious Forces Deployed to Gulf Amid Operation Epic Fury

The United States has deployed a third aircraft carrier (USS George HW Bush), two Amphibious Ready Groups, and two Marine Expeditionary Units (~4,700 Marines) to the Middle East, supplementing 50,000 already-stationed troops during the second month of 'Operation Epic Fury.' The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG is conducting daily combat sorties against Iranian targets.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Horizontal and Vertical Escalation Campaign Against Gulf and Global Infrastructure

Iran launched a broad escalation campaign targeting energy infrastructure, aviation hubs, AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, desalination facilities, and civilian supply chains across at least 14 countries.

Apr 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Houthis Activate Against Israel Amid Bab al-Mandab Disruption Risk

The Houthis launched missiles toward Israel in late March 2025, marking their re-entry into active regional escalation after months of signaling. Critically, they have refrained from attacking maritime traffic through Bab al-Mandab, preserving that option as a coercive instrument.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Multi-Front Regional War: Iran-Israel-Houthi Escalation Following Khamenei Killing

A month-long U.S.-Israeli military campaign has killed Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior Revolutionary Guards commanders, yet failed to suppress Iran's missile and drone capability.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran-Houthi Threat to Close Bab al-Mandab Strait Amid Escalation

Iran has publicly signaled readiness to deploy Houthi proxies to disrupt or close the Bab al-Mandab Strait in response to US-Israeli military pressure, including Trump's threats against Kharg Island.

Mar 31, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftNarrowing

China-Pakistan Strategic Coordination on Iran War Diplomacy

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing to coordinate diplomatic strategy on ending the US-Iran war now in its fifth week.

Mar 31, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

IRGC Launches Child Recruitment Campaign Amid US-Israel War

The IRGC formally announced a recruitment drive targeting Iranians aged 12 and above as volunteer fighters, operationalizing children into checkpoints, patrols, and intelligence tasks during active US-Israeli strike campaigns.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Blockade Amid US-Iran-Israel Conflict

Houthi deputy information minister Mohammed Mansour publicly threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and drive oil prices to $200 per barrel as leverage against European states supporting the Axis of Resistance's adversaries.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Issues April 6 Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz and Energy Infrastructure

Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure — including Kharg Island, oil wells, power plants, and desalination facilities — unless Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz and accepts a peace deal by April 6.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Fifth Week with Multi-Theater Escalation

US-Israeli forces have conducted sustained strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, weapons development sites, educational facilities, and residential areas, killing over 2,076 Iranians including 216 children.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Energy Infrastructure Over Hormuz Dispute

Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's Kharg Island crude export hub, oil wells, power plants, and desalination infrastructure unless Tehran accepted a deal and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Iran Conflict: Military Buildup, Negotiation Stall, and Strait of Hormuz Contingency Planning

The United States is engaged in a 10-day pause in strikes on Iran following significant degradation of Iranian military capabilities, while simultaneously building up military forces in the Middle East.

Mar 30, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Fourth Strike Near Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant

Repeated strikes near Bushehr show the war has moved beyond military assets into strategic energy and nuclear-adjacent infrastructure, increasing pressure on Iran's industrial base and deterrent posture.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Launch First Strikes on Israel Amid Iran Strait of Hormuz Closure

Houthi forces launched their first strikes on Israel in the current conflict cycle on March 28, opening a potential second front of Red Sea disruption coinciding with Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Trump Defers Strait of Hormuz Reopening Operation

Trump has chosen not to prioritize forcing open the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, accepting continued Iranian control over the chokepoint while focusing on degrading Iran's navy and missile stockpiles.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US Operation Epic Fury Against Iran Collapses; Iran Retains Hormuz Control

The US military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury, initiated 28 February 2025) has failed to achieve its stated objectives — regime change, unconditional surrender, nuclear programme destruction, and Hormuz clearance.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthis Fire First Missile Toward Israel Since Iran War Began

Yemen's Houthi movement launched its first missile toward Israel since the onset of the broader Iran war, a rocket intercepted without casualties.

Mar 28, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthis Enter Iran-US-Israel Conflict with Calibrated Attack on Israel

The Houthis launched a confirmed attack on Israel on March 28, formally entering the broader regional conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces after a month on the sidelines.

Mar 26, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

IRGC Initiates Child Recruitment Drive Amid Wartime Manpower Shortage

Iran's IRGC formally announced recruitment of volunteers from age 12 into operational, security, intelligence patrol, and logistics roles following the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel on 28 February 2025.

Mar 25, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran War Triggers Hormuz Closure and Global Energy Shock

A U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, removing approximately 13-14 million barrels of oil per day from global markets and driving Brent crude up 59 percent.

Mar 24, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Issues Destruction Ultimatum Over Kharg Island and Iranian Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's Kharg Island oil export terminal, oil wells, power plants, and desalination facilities unless Tehran swiftly agrees to a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 24, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Trump Signals Willingness to End Iran Military Campaign Without Hormuz Reopening

Trump reportedly told aides he would accept ending the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, decoupling the ceasefire condition from the waterway's reopening.

Mar 19, 2025Military or coercive actionStable

Houthi Ballistic Missile Launch Toward Israel

A missile was launched from Yemen toward Israeli territory, detected early by the Israeli military which initiated interception procedures. No injuries were reported by Israeli emergency services.

Mar 19, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Iran War Munitions Depletion Reaches Critical Threshold

Within the first 16 days of active US-Iran hostilities, the United States expended approximately 11,294 munitions at an estimated cost of $26 billion, including roughly 46% of its ATACMS inventory and 402 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors.

Mar 18, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

UK Deploys Additional Air Defence Systems to Gulf States

The UK is deploying Sky Sabre missile defence to Saudi Arabia, Lightweight Multirole Missile launchers to Bahrain, Rapid Sentry systems to Kuwait, and extending Typhoon jet deployments in Qatar. These deployments integrate into host-nation and regional air defence architectures.

Mar 18, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapse and Ras Laffan LNG Facility Attack

An Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility on March 18, 2025, combined with the broader collapse of Strait of Hormuz traffic to 5% of normal flows, has created the largest disruption to global oil and LNG supplies in modern history.

Mar 4, 2025Sanctions or economic measureNarrowing

Saudi Petroline Activated at Full Capacity Amid Hormuz Restriction

Following the outbreak of a US-Israeli war with Iran on February 28, 2025, Saudi Aramco activated emergency plans to maximize throughput on the Petroline East-West Pipeline, reaching near-full capacity of 7 million barrels per day by March 4.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Strikes Saudi Oil Infrastructure and Gulf States Amid Regional War

Iran has launched over 5,000 drones and missiles against Gulf Arab states since hostilities began, striking Saudi oil fields and refineries in the Eastern Province, the Diplomatic Quarter in Riyadh, and the US Prince Sultan Airbase.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran Attacks Saudi Arabia and Gulf States During US-Iran War

Since the outbreak of hostilities, Iran has launched over 5,000 drones and missiles at Gulf Arab states including Saudi Arabia, striking oil fields, refineries, the Riyadh Diplomatic Quarter, and US military infrastructure.

Mar 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UK-Led 35-Nation Hormuz Reopening Summit Announced

The UK announced a ~35-nation meeting, chaired by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, to coordinate diplomatic and military planning for restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mar 1, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

UK Military Deployment to Gulf Following US-Israeli Strikes on Iran

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February, Iran attacked Gulf infrastructure and disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping, triggering a UK defensive military response.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Disrupts Global Energy Flows and Compounds China's Economic Crisis

The United States and Israel launched coordinated missile strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering an ongoing conflict that has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israel Military Operation Against Iran with IRGC Retaliation

The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against major Iranian cities including Tehran on February 28, triggering a 33-day near-total internet blackout across Iran.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Strait of Hormuz Closure and Gulf Energy Infrastructure Disruption

Iranian military action, in the context of conflict with the US and Israel, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to normal commercial traffic, stranding approximately 1,900 vessels and disrupting 20% of global oil trade.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

Iran De Facto Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Post-US-Israeli Strikes

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran imposed a near-total de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz using missile and drone attacks on vessels, naval mining, and selective negotiated passage. Shipping traffic collapsed by approximately 70 percent initially, then nearly to zero.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionMixed

US-Israeli Air Campaign Degrades Iranian Conventional Military While Asymmetric Capacity Persists

A sustained US-Israeli air campaign launched February 28 has struck over 13,000 targets in Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and much of the senior leadership, and destroying an estimated 80% of Iranian air defense systems.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

US-Israel Strikes on Iranian Medical and Public Health Infrastructure

Since February 28, US and Israeli forces have conducted repeated strikes on Iranian healthcare infrastructure, including the Pasteur Institute (a century-old vaccine and infectious disease research centre), a major pharmaceutical manufacturer, multiple hospitals, and a Red Crescent warehouse.

Feb 28, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

US-Israeli Air Campaign Against Iran Fails to Trigger Internal Collapse

The article describes a US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran framed by its backers as a catalyst for domestic uprising.

Jan 1, 2025Military or coercive actionWidening

Houthi Missile Launch Toward Israel in Iran Solidarity

Ansar Allah (Houthis) launched missiles toward Israel, following through on earlier threats made since the start of the US-Israel conflict with Iran approximately one month prior.

Jan 1, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Threat to Close Bab el-Mandab Strait Conditional on Gulf State Participation

Houthi Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour publicly threatens to close the Bab el-Mandab strait if Gulf states join US-Israeli military operations against Iran or Lebanon.

Jan 1, 2025Military or coercive actionNarrowing

IDF Kills Iranian Oil HQ Commander Eshagi in Tehran Strike

Israeli Air Force killed Jamshid Eshagi, identified as commander of Iran's oil headquarters and described as the primary financing arm of the Iranian regime's armed forces.

Jan 1, 2025Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

UAE Shifts to Confrontational Posture Against Iran, Advocates Multinational Hormuz Operation

The UAE has abandoned its prior détente with Iran and repositioned as the Arab state most aligned with the Trump administration in confronting Tehran during an ongoing military conflict now in its second month.

Oct 7, 2024Alliance or treaty shiftMixed

Iran Conditions Houthi Red Sea Campaign on US Escalation

Iran is directing the Houthis to prepare for a renewed Red Sea shipping campaign contingent on further US military action against Iran, signaling that Tehran is using its Yemeni proxy as a retaliatory lever rather than an autonomous actor.

Apr 1, 2024Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Houthi Ballistic Missile Strike on Southern Israel — Third 'Holy Jihad' Operation

Houthi forces (Ansar Allah) launched ballistic missiles targeting southern Israel, framing it as their third operation within the 'Holy Jihad Battle' campaign.

Apr 1, 2023Military or coercive actionMixed

Houthi-Iran-Hezbollah Joint Missile Attack on Israel

Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, claiming joint coordination with Iran and Hezbollah — framing the strike as a third coordinated operation by the so-called Axis of Resistance. Israeli air defenses intercepted the missile with no casualties or damage reported.

Military or coercive actionNarrowing

Israel Conducts Weekend Air Campaign Against Iranian and Hezbollah Military Infrastructure

Israel claims to have executed a large-scale air campaign against military targets in Iran and Lebanon, including Iranian air defense systems, ballistic missile production facilities, IRGC weapons storage, and Hezbollah command and launch infrastructure.