War / Asia-Pacific
Pakistan Insurgency
Pakistan faces converging insurgent pressure from TTP and BLA while security forces kill protesters in administered Kashmir.
Afghanistan
The Taliban swept back into Kabul in August 2021 as the United States ended its 20-year occupation, restoring the emirate they had lost in 2001.
They inherited not peace but a new insurgency. Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), formed in 2015 and ideologically opposed to the Taliban as insufficiently Islamic, now uses Afghan territory to stage mass-casualty attacks at home and abroad, including the 2024 Moscow concert hall massacre. Pakistan, once the Taliban's patron, faces cross-border attacks from the TTP and Baloch separatists operating from Afghan soil. China and Russia engage Kabul pragmatically while Western sanctions hold.
The country yesterday's victors govern has become today's launchpad for everyone else's war.
Germany's August deportation of a non-criminal Afghan national and the Taliban's late-June Brussels meeting with 15 EU states mark a qualitative shift in the conflict's diplomatic envelope: European governments are now formalizing return pathways that require working relationships with Kabul, extending the incremental recognition the Taliban has been unable to win formally.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The Amnesty International war crimes finding gives the Taliban a verified, internationally documented legal instrument deployable in SCO forums and UN bodies.
European deportation diplomacy and U.S. selective counterterrorism contacts are advancing on independent tracks that collectively deliver incremental recognition to the Taliban without requiring formal normalization.
The madrassa expansion to over 23,000 institutions is a governance capture mechanism: graduates feed directly into judicial, clerical, and security appointments.
ISKP escalated attacks inside Afghanistan and exported terrorism abroad, including the March 2024 Moscow concert hall massacre killing 145 people, while the Taliban conducted large-scale but inconclusive military operations against ISKP strongholds in Nangarhar and Kunar.
The Taliban reimposed a near-total ban on women's education and employment, triggering international sanctions that collapsed the formal economy and pushed 90% of Afghans below the poverty line.
The Taliban swept across Afghanistan in 11 days as US forces withdrew, capturing Kabul on August 15 and restoring their emirate; ISKP marked the transition with a suicide bombing killing 170 people at Kabul airport.
Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) was formally established in eastern Afghanistan, immediately targeting Taliban forces as insufficiently Islamic and launching mass-casualty bombings against Shia Hazara communities.
A US-led NATO coalition toppled the Taliban government in weeks, beginning a 20-year occupation that cost over $2 trillion and 170,000 lives while failing to build a stable Afghan state.
The Taliban, a Pashtun student movement emerging from Pakistani madrassas, seized Kabul and imposed strict Islamic law, banning women from education and public life until their 2001 ouster by a US-led invasion following the September 11 attacks.
Soviet withdrawal plunged Afghanistan into civil war among rival mujahideen factions, killing tens of thousands of civilians and reducing Kabul to rubble over seven years.
TALIBAN
China (pragmatic recognition, mining investments), Russia (pragmatic engagement), Pakistan (historical patron — relationship now strained by TTP).
ISKP
Islamic State network; no direct state patron. TTP (anti-Pakistan Taliban): Afghanistan-based, Taliban provides de facto sanctuary while officially denouncing.
Aug 2, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Suicide Bombing Targets Anti-Militant Rally in Pakistan's Swat Valley
A suicide bomber attacked a peace rally gathered near a police station in Kabal, killing at least fourteen including police and wounding more than two dozen.
Jul 20, 2026
Stable
Other
Flash Floods Kill at Least 23 in Nuristan Province
Monsoon-driven flash floods struck Parun, the isolated capital of Nuristan Province, killing at least 23 people including the mayor and injuring more than 80, with dozens missing.
Jul 12, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Taliban Ties Deepen With Fourth Ministerial Visit in Nine Months
Taliban Agriculture Minister Ataullah Omari concluded a five-day visit to India on July 12, the fourth Taliban ministerial visit in nine months, as New Delhi institutionalizes engagement with Kabul while Pakistan and Afghanistan fight.
Jul 12, 2026
Stable
Other
Death of Former Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani
Qatar announced the death at 74 of former emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the architect of the country's transformation into a gas-funded global broker.
Jul 5, 2026
Escalating
Military
Taliban Detains Badakhshan Strongman in Centralization Push
The Taliban detained powerful local commander Juma Khan Fateh in Badakhshan in early July, releasing him only after a public pledge of loyalty, defusing a standoff that risked open armed conflict.
Jun 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan-Taliban Cross-Border Strikes Continue Despite Chinese Mediation
Pakistan conducted fresh air and ground strikes inside Afghanistan's Paktia, Paktika, and Kunar provinces, with UNAMA reporting at least 28 civilians killed and the Taliban claiming 36 dead, prompting Taliban retaliatory strikes into Balochistan.
Jun 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Russia-Led CSTO Expands Afghan-Tajik Border Security Amid Strain
The Russia-led CSTO announced expanded border operations in Tajikistan against militants and traffickers spilling from Afghanistan, possibly deploying personnel to assist Tajik forces.
Jun 28, 2026
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Cross-Border Strikes into Afghanistan
Pakistan struck Paktia, Paktika and Kunar provinces in Afghanistan, killing dozens, in retaliation for a paramilitary base attack in Karachi claimed by a TTP splinter.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Militant Assault on Sindh Rangers Headquarters in Karachi
Militants attacked the Sindh Rangers paramilitary headquarters in Karachi with a blast and sustained gunfire, killing three rangers and three attackers.
Jun 26, 2026
Stable
Legal
Pakistan Passes Growth-Centric FY2026-27 Budget
Pakistan's parliament passed a roughly $67 billion FY2026-27 budget pivoting toward export-led growth via Super Tax cuts, FBR digitization, and incentives for IT, remittances, and CPEC 2.0 joint ventures.
Jun 23, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kazakhstan and EU Sign Middle Corridor Trade and Raw Materials Agreements
Tokayev's Brussels visit yielded over $12 billion in agreements anchoring the Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor as an alternative trade and energy artery bypassing Russia.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kazakhstan Advances Trans-Afghan Transit Corridor Talks in Kabul
Kazakhstan's deputy prime minister met Taliban leadership in Kabul to advance rail corridors linking Central Asia to Iranian and Pakistani seaports through Afghanistan.
Jun 19, 2026
Escalating
Political
Munir Consolidation Pushes PTI Toward Charter-of-Democracy Compromise
Field Marshal Asim Munir's ascendancy has hardened a permanent hybrid regime in which the army dictates outcomes and civilian parties compete for shrinking space.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN-Russia Summit in Kazan Deepens Moscow's Southeast Asia Energy Ties
Nine ASEAN heads of state attended the June 17-18 ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit in Kazan, with several meeting Putin directly and advancing oil, gas and nuclear cooperation amid an energy shock from the Iran war.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Taliban Bans Smartphones for Civil Servants and Military
Afghanistan's Supreme Leader ordered all civil servants, teachers, and security forces to stop bringing smartphones to work as of Wednesday, with violators' phones to be smashed and punishment imposed.
Jun 15, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
EU-Central Asia Special Representatives Meet on Afghanistan in Almaty
The eighth meeting of EU and Central Asian special representatives for Afghanistan in Almaty consolidated a shift in which Brussels funds engagement while Central Asia, led by Kazakhstan, delivers it operationally.
Jun 9, 2026
Escalating
Military
Taliban Morality Crackdown Extends to Herat, Suppressing Protests
Taliban morality police extended strict dress and religious enforcement to Herat, arresting more than 200 people by local counts, and dispersed a rare protest in the Shiite Hazara neighborhood of Jebrail with gunfire that killed a teenager.
May 27, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Russia and Taliban Afghanistan Sign Military Cooperation Agreement
Russia and Taliban-led Afghanistan signed an undisclosed military cooperation agreement on May 27 at the International Security Forum in Moscow oblast, a year after the Kremlin delisted the Taliban as a terrorist organization and became the first and only state to recognize its government.
May 27, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Afghanistan Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement
Russia and the Taliban-led Afghan government signed a military-technical cooperation agreement centered on repairing Soviet-era equipment and deepening intelligence and counter-terror coordination, less than a year after Moscow formally recognized the regime.
May 24, 2026
De-escalating
Military
BLA Suicide Bombing of Quetta Passenger Train
A BLA suicide bomber drove a vehicle-borne IED into a passenger train in Quetta, killing at least 30 people — predominantly security personnel and their families — and injuring over 50.
May 5, 2026
Escalating
Military
Syria Cracks Down on Central Asian Foreign Fighters in Idlib
Syrian security forces arrested more than 24 Uzbek militants in Idlib after an armed standoff in Kafriya and al-Foua triggered by a raid that killed a militant suspected of highway robbery.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Taliban Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement
Russia and Afghanistan's Taliban government concluded a military-technical cooperation agreement in late May 2026, formalized during Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob's visit to Moscow.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Uzbekistan Regional Connectivity Surge and Tourism Hub Consolidation
Uzbekistan's National Statistics Committee reported 4 million visitor arrivals in the first four months of 2026, extending a multi-year trend that saw 11.7 million arrivals in 2025 — a 333% increase over 2017 figures.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
EU Accelerates Afghan Migrant Return Policy Review, Taliban Delegation Invited to Brussels
The European Union accelerated its review of Afghan migration policy in May 2026, with a primary focus on returning Afghan migrants to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Taliban Codifies Child Marriage Law Amid Sustained Girls' Education Ban
The Taliban government has written into law provisions that imply legal approval of child marriage, including allowance for a minor girl's silence to constitute consent.
Apr 16, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Central Asia Water-Industrial Stress Convergence Identified at MINEX Kazakhstan 2026
A structured analytical presentation at MINEX Kazakhstan 2026 documented the convergence of three compounding pressures on Central Asia's water supply: accelerating glacial retreat reducing Syr Darya and Amu Darya flows by up to 30% by mid-century; Chinese upstream withdrawals cutting Ili and Irtysh basin runoff by over 20%; and Afghanistan's Qosh-Tepa canal diverting an estimated 10 cubic kilometers annually from the Amu Darya.
Apr 14, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Gunmen Attack Polio Vaccination Escort in Hangu, KPK
Armed gunmen attacked a police convoy escorting polio vaccinators in Hangu district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing one officer and wounding four.
Apr 5, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
First Afghanistan-Central Asia Consultative Dialogue Institutionalizes Regional Engagement
The first Afghanistan-Central Asia Consultative Dialogue in Kabul, alongside the Termez Dialogue and expanding rail, trade, and pipeline projects, marks the institutionalization of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan's integration into the Central Asian regional order.
Apr 5, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks Multi-Front Strategic Balancing Amid India, Afghanistan, and Iran-US Pressures
Pakistan is portrayed as attempting to manage concurrent pressures from India, Afghanistan, and the Iran-US conflict through diplomacy with China, Gulf states, Tehran, and Washington.
Apr 2, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
China-Facilitated Pakistan-Afghanistan Talks in Urumqi
China facilitated exploratory diplomatic talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Urumqi — the first major bilateral engagement since Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab lil-Haq in late February 2026.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Activates Afghanistan-Bypassing Central Asian Trade Corridors
In April 2026, Pakistan launched the first TIR-regime export consignment from Karachi to Kyrgyzstan via the Sost Dry Port and operationalized the Pakistan-Iran Transit Corridor, routing Central Asian trade through Iran and China rather than Afghanistan.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Military Kills Eight TTP Militants in North Waziristan Border Operation
Pakistani security forces killed eight TTP-affiliated militants near the Afghanistan border in North Waziristan on April 1, 2026, recovering weapons and ammunition.
Mar 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Moves to Contain Shiite Unrest Amid U.S.-Iran Mediation
Pakistan's army chief convened leading Shiite clerics and warned against violence after unrest triggered by the killing of Iran's supreme leader.
Mar 16, 2026
Mixed
Military
Pakistan Aerial Strikes on Kabul and Afghan Territory Targeting TTP
Pakistan conducted aerial strikes on the Omid Rehabilitation Center in Kabul on March 16, 2026, killing at least 143 people, following earlier strikes on Kabul's outskirts in October 2025.
Mar 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Establishes Cenling County on Xinjiang-Afghanistan Border
China carved out Cenling County from Taxkorgan Tajik Autonomous County in Xinjiang in March 2026, placing new administrative governance directly along the Wakhan Corridor border with Afghanistan.
Feb 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Launches Operation Ghazab lil-Haq Against Taliban
Pakistan initiated large-scale airstrikes against Taliban-held targets in Afghanistan, including Kabul, signaling a shift from border management to direct coercion of the regime.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Conflict-Driven Internal Displacement Reaches Record High in 2025
Conflict and violence generated 32.3 million internal displacements globally in 2025 — a 60% increase over 2024 and the first time conflict-driven displacement has exceeded disaster-driven displacement since IDMC tracking began in 2008.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India's Structural Positioning Within a Fracturing Liberal International Order
India has consolidated a durable posture of selective LIO engagement across four security domains — alliances, security communities, crisis management, and nuclear governance — deepening bilateral defense cooperation with the United States while refusing binding alliance commitments.
Jul 18, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Trilateral Feasibility Study Launched for Trans-Afghan Termez-Kharlachi Railway
In accordance with a trilateral agreement signed in July 2025, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are preparing a feasibility study for the Termez-Naibabad-Maidanshahr-Logar-Kharlachi railway — the core segment of the Kabul Corridor.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
China Mobilizes Overseas Security Architecture Amid U.S. Order Decline
China's Ministry of State Security, under Minister Chen Yixin, has issued a directive to build an integrated overseas security protection system 'across the entire chain,' codifying and expanding China's capacity to protect BRI investments, nationals, and strategic assets globally.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Pakistan Military Consolidates Formal Constitutional Authority Under Munir
Under Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's military has achieved its deepest formal entrenchment in the constitutional order in the country's modern history, using constitutional redesign and a compliant civilian coalition to insulate military authority from political challenge.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
Trump Administration Systematic Dismantlement of U.S. Soft-Power Infrastructure
The Trump administration has pursued a coordinated dismantlement of U.S. soft-power assets: abolishing USAID, withdrawing from 60+ international organizations, leaving diplomatic posts vacant, suppressing Voice of America, restricting foreign student access to U.S. universities, and substituting coercive tariff threats and military force for diplomatic engagement.
Jun 9, 2025
Escalating
Military
Taliban Security Forces Fire on Hazara Protesters in Herat
Taliban forces opened fire on peaceful protesters in the Hazara-populated Jabr-eil district of Herat after women and girls were arrested under hijab enforcement regulations.
Jun 4, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Termez Dialogue Flags Climate Viability Risk for Central-South Asia Connectivity Corridors
The second Termez Dialogue, held June 4-6 in Uzbekistan, convened regional stakeholders to assess connectivity between Central and South Asia, with a specific focus on climate resilience risks to CASA-1000, TAPI, and INSTC.
Jun 4, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Termez Dialogue on Central-South Asia Connectivity Convenes in Tashkent
Senior officials from Central and South Asian states met in Tashkent under the Termez Dialogue framework to advance regional trade and connectivity, with Afghanistan's integration as the central agenda item.
May 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Taliban Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement Signed
Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation agreement on the sidelines of the International Security Forum outside Moscow, with Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Taliban Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob as signatories.
May 22, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Mediates U.S.-Iran Conflict to Contain Western Frontier Militant Spillover
Pakistan's Field Marshal General Asim Munir conducted a second visit to Tehran on May 22, 2025, as part of Islamabad's mediation efforts during the U.S.-Iran conflict.
May 22, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Liushenyu Coal Mine Explosion, Shanxi Province
An explosion at the privately run Liushenyu coal mine in Shanxi province killed at least 82 people, making it China's deadliest mining accident in over 15 years.
May 19, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Xi-Putin Beijing Summit: Treaty Extension and 20 Bilateral Pacts
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing on May 19-20, extending the China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation and overseeing the signing of 20 bilateral pacts spanning trade, education, and science.
May 15, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Corridor Conceptual Agreement
Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan have reached conceptual agreement on a transit corridor connecting Central Asia to Arabian Sea ports at Karachi and Gwadar, with feasibility studies and surveying already underway.
May 14, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Russia Declares Opposition to Third-Country Military Presence in Afghanistan at SCO Security Meeting
At the SCO security council heads meeting in Bishkek, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu publicly opposed any return of U.S. or allied military infrastructure to Afghanistan or neighboring states, while announcing Russia is building a 'full-fledged partnership' with the Taliban.
May 10, 2025
De-escalating
Military
India-Pakistan May 2025 Conflict and Post-Crisis Rearmament
The May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict — triggered by the Pahalgam terrorist attack — produced the most intense cross-border conventional fighting between the two nuclear powers since Kargil 1999, including strikes on nuclear-adjacent infrastructure.
May 9, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan VBIED Attack on Fateh Khel Checkpost, Bannu
A vehicle-borne IED followed by a gunman assault on a police checkpost in Fateh Khel, Bannu district killed at least 15 KP police officers.
May 8, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Middle Corridor Institutionalization Drive by Regional States and Partners
A coordinated series of bilateral agreements, infrastructure investments, and multilateral initiatives across Q1–Q2 2025 is consolidating the Middle Corridor as a durable Eurasian transit platform.
May 8, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh-Pakistan Security MoU and High-Level Diplomatic Engagement
Pakistani Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi visited Dhaka on May 8–9, 2025, meeting Bangladesh's Home Minister and State Minister for Foreign Affairs and signing an MoU on security cooperation covering intelligence exchange, counter-narcotics, anti-money laundering, and cross-border crime.
May 2, 2025
De-escalating
Other
RSF World Press Freedom Index 2025 Records Historic Low
The 2025 RSF World Press Freedom Index finds global press freedom at its lowest point in 25 years, with over half of 180 assessed countries rated 'difficult' or 'very serious.' The share of the global population living under 'good' press freedom conditions has collapsed from 20% in 2002 to under 1%.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Shadow-Earth-053 China-Aligned Dual-Track Cyber Espionage Campaign Disclosed
Trend Micro disclosed Shadow-Earth-053, a China-aligned cyber espionage campaign active since at least December 2024, targeting government and defense networks across Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and NATO member Poland.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Commissions Chinese Hangor-Class Submarine Fleet
Pakistan commissioned its first fleet of eight Hangor-class submarines sourced from China, with four built in China and four to be manufactured domestically under a technology transfer arrangement.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Arrests ISKP Spokesperson Sultan Aziz Azam
Pakistani intelligence detained Sultan Aziz Azam, ISKP's chief spokesperson and founder of the Al-Azaim Foundation media wing, in May 2025, with the arrest confirmed by the UN Sanctions Monitoring Team in December 2025.
Apr 26, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Suicide Bombing and Ambush in Bannu
A suicide vehicle-borne IED struck a police checkpoint in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, followed by a direct assault on surviving officers and responding reinforcements, killing fifteen police.
Apr 25, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Zardari China State Visit: CPEC Phase II and Regional Connectivity Alignment
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari arrived in China on April 25 for a week-long visit centered on advancing CPEC's second phase — shifting from infrastructure toward industrialization, SEZs, and digital connectivity.
Apr 24, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan Air Strikes on Afghan Border Provinces
Pakistan conducted air strikes against targets in Afghanistan's Kunar, Khost, and Paktika provinces, destroying what Islamabad described as militant hideouts, a training centre, and an ammunition cache.
Apr 24, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Kyrgyzstan-China-Pakistan Pilot Transport Route Activated
Kyrgyzstan successfully completed a pilot freight run from Bishkek to Karachi via the Karakoram Highway through China, bypassing Afghanistan entirely.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China's Failed Mediation of Pakistan-Taliban Border Conflict
China has attempted to position itself as a mediator between Pakistan and the Taliban amid an escalating border conflict driven by TTP operations from Afghan territory.
Apr 20, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
New Lines Institute S7+ Forum on Afghanistan-Central Asia Connectivity
Regional experts convened on Capitol Hill to assess Afghanistan's role in the Silk Seven Plus initiative, a framework for a Greater Central Asian economic community with seaport access via Pakistan.
Apr 18, 2025
Mixed
Institutional
Uzbekistan Advances Jizzakh Nuclear Power Plant and Radioactive Waste System
Uzbekistan is moving forward with a nuclear power plant in Jizzakh and has approved a centralized radioactive waste management system, locking in long-duration nuclear governance infrastructure.
Apr 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Russia Conditionally Offers Mediation in Afghanistan-Pakistan Conflict
Russian Special Representative Zamir Kabulov publicly signaled Moscow's readiness to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan if formally requested by both sides, while Pakistan's ambassador to Russia confirmed Islamabad has already made such a request.
Apr 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Central Asia and UNAMA Expand Pragmatic Engagement Framework for Afghanistan
The article describes the consolidation of a pragmatic engagement framework in which UNAMA mediates between the Taliban and external actors while Central Asian states expand humanitarian, trade, and infrastructure links with Afghanistan.
Apr 2, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Brokers Temporary Pakistan-Afghanistan De-escalation
Senior officials from China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan met in Urumqi, after which cross-border firing, drone attacks, and Pakistani aerial assaults reportedly paused.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Taliban Critical Mineral Contracts Lock Afghanistan into Raw-Ore Export Dependency
Since returning to power in 2021, Taliban authorities have issued hundreds of mining contracts — primarily to Chinese, Iranian, Pakistani, and Turkish firms — on opaque terms that prioritize immediate cash over value-chain participation.
Mar 12, 2025
Escalating
Legal
China Enacts Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law
The National People's Congress passed the Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law in March 2025, effective July 1, converting the CCP's assimilationist ethnic policy from discretionary guidance into legally binding statutory obligations with enforcement mechanisms and criminal penalties.
Mar 12, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Moscow Military Court Verdict in Crocus City Hall Attack Trial
Moscow's Second Western District Military Court convicted 19 individuals linked to the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, sentencing the four principal Tajik perpetrators and seven co-conspirators to life imprisonment.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan-Afghanistan Open War: Airstrikes, Border Closure, and Failed Chinese Mediation
Pakistan declared 'open war' on Afghanistan in late February 2025, conducting dozens of airstrikes on Afghan cities and military infrastructure, closing the shared border, and expelling Afghans en masse.
Feb 26, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan-Afghanistan Open War: Pakistani Airstrikes and Taliban Ground Offensive
Pakistan launched near-daily airstrikes across Afghanistan beginning February 26, targeting weapons depots, military bases including Bagram, and civilian areas across 10 provinces, killing at least 76 civilians per UN documentation.
Jan 31, 2025
De-escalating
Military
BLA Coordinated Multi-Site Assault on Balochistan, Including Reko Diq Corridor
Over 500 BLA militants struck at least 18 targets across 12 areas in Balochistan simultaneously, killing 58 people including 36 civilians and 22 security forces.
Jan 22, 2025
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Security Forces Kill Eight TTP Militants in North Waziristan
Pakistani security forces killed eight TTP-affiliated militants during a border engagement in North Waziristan after detecting militant movement along the Pak-Afghan frontier.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Post-Cold War Order Structural Dissolution
The liberal international order built after 1991 is undergoing structural dissolution across multiple dimensions simultaneously: great power rivalry between the U.S. and China has intensified, Russia's war in Ukraine has fractured European security architecture, a U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran has triggered regional conflagration, and democratic backsliding is accelerating in states previously considered stable.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China Fails to Convert U.S. Geostrategic Retreat into Durable Influence Gains
Since January 2025, Trump administration policies have created a structural vacuum in U.S. global leadership, theoretically advantaging China.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan's Diplomatic Rehabilitation via Western Re-engagement
Pakistan has systematically rebuilt its international standing through a multi-vector strategy: flattering Trump personally, nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize, joining Trump's Board of Peace, signing a US oil development deal, and launching a crypto collaboration with World Liberty Financial.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Proposed Transfer of Afghan Evacuees from Qatar to DRC
Reports emerged that Afghan evacuees — including former interpreters, contractors, and civil society partners — housed in Qatar since the 2021 U.S. withdrawal are being considered for transfer to the Democratic Republic of the Congo rather than resettlement in the United States.
Aug 15, 2021
Escalating
Institutional
Taliban Systematic Exclusion of Afghan Women from Education and Public Life
Since seizing Kabul in August 2021, the Taliban have issued over 80 edicts targeting women, banning girls from education above sixth grade, barring women from most professions, and in December 2024 closing the last professional pathway by prohibiting women from studying medicine or midwifery.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Illiberal States Shift From Defence to Building an Alternative Order
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have shifted from defending themselves against liberal pressure to constructing the institutions of an alternative international order.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Germany Deports Afghan National Without Criminal Record to Taliban Rule
Germany deported an Afghan national with no criminal record for the first time since the Taliban takeover, extending a policy previously limited to convicted offenders and terrorism cases.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Taliban Rebuild Afghan Education System Around Madrassa Network
Registered madrassas in Afghanistan have grown more than fourfold since 2021 to over twenty-three thousand, enrolling more than 3.65 million children, while public schools, universities and teaching colleges have been converted to religious institutions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Taliban Delegation Meets 15 European States in Brussels on Afghan Returns
A Taliban delegation travelled to Brussels in late June to meet representatives of 15 European countries and the European Commission on return and readmission of Afghans.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Narrows Afghanistan Policy to Selective Taliban Contacts
The US counterterrorism coordinator confirmed that Washington engages the Taliban selectively on discrete security issues, formalizing a shift away from the human rights framing that defined earlier policy.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Australia Closes Its Afghanistan Inquiry Response Without Substantive Commitments
Canberra's 2026 reply to its 2021 parliamentary inquiry into Afghanistan states that a substantive government response is no longer appropriate.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Uzbekistan and Pakistan Agree Trade Routes Bypassing Afghanistan via China
Tashkent and Islamabad reached a provisional agreement to expand bilateral trade through China, bypassing the shorter Afghan corridor that a closed Pakistani land border has made unusable.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CFR Issues Crisis Playbook for U.S. Responses to Insurgency-Related Conflict
The Council on Foreign Relations published a decision-support playbook codifying how U.S. policymakers should assess and respond to insurgency-related crises, from pre-crisis intelligence questions through a four-option strategic spectrum of monitor, contain, defend, and transform, backed by case studies from FARC and Boko Haram to the Islamic State, Tigray, the RSF, and M23.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Taliban Veteran Commanders Reposition Toward the Pakistan Front
A firsthand account from Kabul documents the Taliban's post-victory consolidation: battle-hardened commanders like Mullah Abdul Rahim Gulab, who fought U.S.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Collapse of Great-Power Restraint Strips Small States of Systemic Protection
Across 2025-2026 the restraints that shielded smaller states have unraveled: Washington has pressured Panama over canal ports, executed a raid removing Venezuela's president, imposed an oil blockade on Cuba, and raised average tariffs from under three percent to 13.7 percent, with Lesotho's denim industry crushed by 50 percent duties.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
India Maintains SCO Engagement as Pakistan Assumes Chairmanship
India is working through a dense SCO calendar, from the July 19 culture ministers meeting in Kyrgyzstan to the July 23-24 foreign ministers meeting and the Bishkek leaders summit at the end of August, after which Pakistan takes the chair.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Amnesty Calls Pakistan's Kabul Rehab Center Strike a Possible War Crime
Amnesty International published an investigation concluding that Pakistan's March 16 air strikes on the Omid Rehabilitation and Treatment Center in Kabul, which killed at least 269 civilians per UNAMA verification with more than a thousand patients housed on site, constitute a serious violation of international humanitarian law possibly amounting to a war crime.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Strikes Critical Minerals Framework With Uzbekistan Amid Central Asia Scramble
The U.S. Development Finance Corporation and Uzbekistan agreed in mid-February on a Joint Investment Framework covering exploration, extraction, and processing of critical minerals
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Central Asian States Advance Rival Corridors Without Unified Strategy
Railway administrations of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement in Istanbul in June to develop the CASCA+ corridor toward the EU, while Kazakhstan pushes the rival Trans-Caspian route and separate Afghan corridors advance under Uzbek and Turkmen-Kazakh sponsorship.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Launches Operation Shaban Against TTP and BLA in Balochistan
Pakistan initiated Operation Shaban, a joint Army, Frontier Corps, and Balochistan Police campaign launched in response to the July 7 Mangi Dam attack that killed 27 police personnel.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Regional Powers Deepen Engagement With Taliban Government
The Taliban's international re-engagement is advancing along distinct regional tracks: Russia has extended recognition on geopolitical logic, China is embedding Digital Silk Road surveillance infrastructure that will mediate Afghan information access, Pakistan has transformed from the movement's patron into its adversary over the TTP question, and India pursues intelligence-led engagement with individual Taliban factions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Kazakhstan Plans Trade Terminal at Iran's Bandar Abbas Amid Central Asian Route Diversification
Kazakhstan plans a privately funded 15-hectare export terminal at Iran's Bandar Abbas, shipping via Aktau and Turkmenistan to reach Indian Ocean, Gulf, and Southeast Asian markets, betting sanctions on Iran will ease.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Deepening China-Iran-North Korea-Russia Strategic Alignment
Since 2022 the four principal U.S. adversaries have built dense bilateral cooperation spanning arms supply, joint weapons production, technology transfer, and sanctions circumvention, catalyzed by Russia's war in Ukraine.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Chinese Workers Resume Tajik-Afghan Border Highway Under Enhanced Security
Chinese crews resumed work on a 109-kilometer section of the Dushanbe-Kulma highway near the Afghan frontier after Tajikistan guaranteed enhanced protection following deadly late-2025 attacks on Chinese nationals.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Chinese Work Resumes on Tajikistan's Dushanbe-Kulma Highway Under Guard
Chinese workers returned to the strategic Dushanbe-Kulma highway in Tajikistan after attacks near the Afghan border killed five Chinese nationals in late 2025 and halted construction.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Geopolitical Normalization of Taliban Rule in Afghanistan
The article describes how fragmented international actors have converged on de facto accommodation of the Taliban, hardening its discriminatory decrees into a permanent state apparatus.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Consolidation of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Autocratic Axis
The deepening economic, military, and technological coordination among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea forms a revisionist heartland bloc aimed at rupturing the US-led rimland order.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
EU Hosts Taliban Delegation for Afghan Deportation Talks
EU member states pressed the European Commission to coordinate technical talks with a Taliban delegation over consular services and the return of Afghan nationals, with several states already conducting bilateral deportations.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Central Asia's Trade-Route Diversification Collapses Amid Regional Wars
Central Asia's effort to reduce dependence on Russia's Northern Corridor has failed as overlapping conflicts shut its alternatives: U.S. strikes and a port blockade closed Iran's Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, Pakistan-Taliban fighting severed the Afghanistan-Pakistan route, and retaliatory Iranian strikes damaged Middle Corridor infrastructure including Nakhichevan's airport.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Central Asia Water Crisis Drives External Dependence on Russia, China, and Afghanistan
Central Asia's deepening water shortage has eliminated the upstream surplus that once let Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan supply downstream Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, collapsing the Soviet-era water-sharing model.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
US, France, UK Block China-Pakistan UNSC Bid to Blacklist BLA
The US, France, and UK blocked a joint China-Pakistan resolution to list the Baloch Liberation Army and its Majeed Brigade under the UNSC 1267 Sanctions Committee, citing the committee's al-Qaida and Islamic State mandate.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Disengagement Reshapes Global Governance Architecture
The piece frames a structural erosion of the U.S.-anchored multilateral order as major powers pursue selective engagement, disengagement, or active dismantling of legacy institutions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Central Asia Multi-Alignment Leverage Consolidation
Central Asian states are converting geographic centrality into structural leverage as maritime-trade disruption from the Iran-U.S. war and Russia's estrangement from G7 economies narrow viable logistics options for neighboring powers.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Asim Munir Consolidates De Facto Rule While Leading Pakistan's Iran Mediation
Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's chief of army staff since 2022, has emerged as the dominant power center in Pakistan while simultaneously positioning the country as a lead mediator in the US-Iran conflict.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Violence Lull Amid TTP Standoff
A relative cessation of cross-border violence between Afghanistan and Pakistan has emerged, attributed primarily to both sides' interest in avoiding escalation during active U.S.-Iran negotiations rather than any diplomatic breakthrough.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
China MPS Builds Global Police Cooperation Network via 205 Security Agreements (2006–2025)
China's Ministry of Public Security has signed at least 205 bilateral and multilateral policing and security cooperation agreements with 74 countries since 2006, with activity peaks in 2010, 2016–2018, and post-2024.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Central Asia Water-Resource Governance Gap Identified Amid AI and Critical Minerals Expansion
Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are actively courting critical minerals investment and AI data center development without establishing water-use governance frameworks for these industries.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Counterterrorism Posture Degradation Amid Fragmented Threat Landscape
The U.S. faces a diffuse terrorism threat with no single dominant actor, spanning al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates in Africa and the Middle East, and ideologically heterogeneous lone actors domestically.
War / Asia-Pacific
Pakistan faces converging insurgent pressure from TTP and BLA while security forces kill protesters in administered Kashmir.
Conflict / Asia-Pacific
Militant killings resume in Kashmir as Pakistan's AJK crackdown deepens its internal legitimacy crisis and India widens its capability lead.
TTP operates from Afghan territory as the primary armed pressure point against Pakistan.
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a TTP splinter, claimed the June 2025 Karachi Rangers headquarters attack that directly triggered Pakistan's late-June cross-border strikes.
Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan, formed April 2025 from the merger of Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, Lashkar-e-Islam, and Harkat Inqilab-e-Islami Pakistan.
BLA uses Afghan territory as a staging and logistics base for high-visibility attacks inside Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan.
ISKP uses Afghanistan as a launch and logistics base for regional and transnational attacks targeting Central Asian states and Pakistani urban centers.