StateAsia-PacificPAKStable

Pakistan

Pakistan is punching above its structural weight diplomatically, but chronic domestic fragility and economic dependency on China constrain durable power consolidation.

PF Score

45

2

Authority

47

Reach

44

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

45Overall2

Pakistan is punching above its structural weight diplomatically, but chronic domestic fragility and economic dependency on China constrain durable power consolidation.

47Auth1

Pakistan holds functional state institutions with nuclear deterrence, but the TTP insurgency (leverage 40 over Pakistan), severe economic stress, and civil-military tensions cap domestic grip near the contested midpoint, slightly above the 50 baseline.

44Reach6

Pakistan's active mediation role between the U.S. and Iran, backed by Trump's public endorsement, Army Chief Munir's personal ties with the administration, and Pakistan's unique dual-access position, represents a genuine structural upgrade in external influence, placing it near Saudi Arabia's reach tier.

Depth: None
All conflicts

Ishaq Dar

Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister

Ishaq Dar is Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, a senior figure in the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

Dawn·Analytical / LongformApr 5, 2026

Pakistan is facing a multi-theater stress test in which its India-centric strategy now competes with instability on the Afghan frontier and possible spillover from the Iran-US conflict.

WideningMinor Update
Reuters·NewsApr 4, 2025

Iran's downing of US aircraft materially undercuts Washington's claim of uncontested air dominance and gives Tehran a rare but important leverage point inside an otherwise asymmetric war.

NarrowingMajor Update
Dawn·Analytical / LongformApr 3, 2026

The US-Israel campaign has degraded Iranian central authority to the point where the primary risk has shifted from Iranian state aggression to uncontrolled IRGC fragmentation and advanced weapons proliferation.

MixedMinor Update