Weekly brief
Mar 27, 2026 to Apr 2, 2026
Week 13
NATO Allies Defy US Amid Hormuz Crisis
- Iran's Hormuz closure is costing the U.S.-led coalition more than American airstrikes are costing Iran.
- Four NATO allies refused U.S. basing requests, and Trump threatened to abandon the alliance's defense guarantee.
The U.S.-Israeli air campaign killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, destroyed Iran's air defenses, and enabled B-52 bombers to fly unopposed over Tehran. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 15% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude past $118 per barrel.
The economic damage is spreading fast. Iraq lost two-thirds of its oil output and over 90% of government revenue. Pakistan faces a multibillion-dollar emergency fuel bill after Qatari LNG shipments stopped entirely.
Spain, Italy, France, and Poland all refused U.S. requests for basing and overflight access. Trump responded by publicly questioning NATO's value and threatening to withdraw the Article 5 defense guarantee.
Iran then offered preferential Hormuz transit to countries that stay neutral, giving NATO members a financial incentive to keep refusing Washington. Trump set a deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, Iran refused, and Trump backed down, citing unverified talks that Tehran publicly denied.
Saudi Arabia now routes up to 5 million barrels per day through its Red Sea port to bypass Hormuz. Iran is pressing the Houthis to attack Red Sea shipping, which would close both major oil corridors simultaneously.
Washington is building toward 17,000 troops on Iran's periphery, with island seizure and uranium extraction under active planning. A ground incursion would transform the air campaign into an open-ended occupation.
Trump and Secretary Rubio said they will "reexamine" NATO relationships after the war, with a reported model tying alliance voting rights to a 5% GDP defense spending threshold.