Escalating / Global
Global Maritime Chokepoints
Iran and Oman have agreed Hormuz transit coordinates while Houthis widen the Red Sea blockade to Saudi ports.
The Global Jihadist Network is what remained after the caliphate fell.
Al-Qaeda's September 11 attacks in 2001 pulled the United States into a two-decade campaign against Sunni jihadist movements, and the 2003 invasion of Iraq incubated the group that became ISIS, which declared a territorial caliphate across Iraq and Syria in 2014. A US-led coalition crushed that caliphate by 2019. The movement did not die. It scattered into franchises: Islamic State branches in the Sahel, West Africa, Afghanistan, and Central Africa, alongside Al-Qaeda affiliates across the same terrain.
The network now grows fastest in the places its enemies are least willing to fight.
The network's geographic footprint shifted materially through mid-2026 on two fronts simultaneously.
ISSP claimed its first attacks in northwestern Nigeria in May, then coordinated school abductions and a beheading in Oyo State in June marked the first jihadist operations in the Yoruba southwest, a qualitative expansion beyond the historically northern theater.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance globally.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
IS central's dispersal doctrine is functioning as a structural adaptation to decapitation: the May killing of Al-Minuki produced cross-regional redeployment of 150 fighters rather than organizational contraction.
ISSP's expansion into Sokoto, Kebbi, and Oyo State represents a qualitative phase shift: the network is no longer consolidating a northern Nigerian theater but opening a southern front in Yoruba territory where no.
The convergence of four Sahel states exiting multilateral treaty bodies, including Chad's July 2026 ICC withdrawal following Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.
Historically sponsored via Gulf private donors; currently largely self-financing through taxation, smuggling, and kidnapping in conflict zones
Escalating / Global
Iran and Oman have agreed Hormuz transit coordinates while Houthis widen the Red Sea blockade to Saudi ports.
Escalating / Global
China launches a rival AI body and displaces US influence across Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Taiwan Strait.
ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) operates across the Lake Chad basin and is navigating a succession crisis after the May 2026 killing of Al-Minuki.
ISSP (Islamic State Sahel Province) has formalized its first attacks in northwestern Nigeria's Sokoto and Kebbi states and is redeploying fighters toward.
JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) operates as al-Qaeda's primary Sahel franchise across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
ISKP (Islamic State Khorasan Province) functions as the network's South-Central Asia franchise and a demonstrated external-operations node with transnational.
ADF (Allied Democratic Forces) operates as IS's Central Africa node through eastern DRC and Ituri province.