Assessments

Saudi Arabia

The Kingdom That Stopped Hiding

May 2026

The Read

Riyadh is more assertive than at any point since the 1970s, and more exposed. The kingdom now owns the wars it once outsourced.

Saudi Arabia threw its political weight openly behind US-Israeli strikes on Iran and brought Pakistani combat forces onto its soil, abandoning the quiet-hedger posture it has run since the 1973 oil embargo era.

The UAE's exit from OPEC has fractured the institutional lever Riyadh used to discipline Gulf production for half a century, turning a junior partner into a competitive peer.

The new Europe Gulf Forum institutionalizes Europe-Gulf coordination outside US-mediated frameworks, marking the first durable diplomatic architecture in decades that does not run through Washington.

LAST 30 DAYS

24

35

Δ +11

  1. APR 20Mon

    UAE Withdrawal from OPEC

  2. MAY 01Fri

    UAE Exits OPEC Amid Post-Iran-War Strategic Realignment

  3. MAY 17Sun

    Inaugural Europe Gulf Forum Convenes in Athens

Saudi Arabia openly backed US-Israeli strikes on Iran for the first time and locked in a mutual defense pact with Pakistan. The UAE walked out of OPEC. The US security guarantee no longer functions as advertised.

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Sources

  • When the UAE Announced It Would Withdraw from OPEC (New York Times)
  • Five Dynamics to Watch After the Iran War (Atlantic Council)
  • Pakistan Tried to Help End the Iran War. Now It's Paying a Price. (New York Times)
  • The Fourth Oil Shock (Foreign Policy)
  • Inaugural Europe Gulf Forum Concludes in Greece (Atlantic Council)
  • Middle Eastern Allies Seek Alternative Air Defenses (Wall Street Journal)