M23-AFC
Hybrid
M23-AFC is a high-authority regional militia whose influence ceiling is structurally capped by Rwandan patronage and exposed by the widening distance between peace diplomacy and ground escalation.
PF Score
35
Authority
44
Reach
28
Under construction
M23-AFC is a high-authority regional militia whose influence ceiling is structurally capped by Rwandan patronage and exposed by the widening distance between peace diplomacy and ground escalation.
M23-AFC exercises effective territorial control in eastern DRC including Goma with active combat operations and parallel governance, placing it above fragmented insurgents like ISIS (22) but below RSF (42) given continued active combat and patron dependency limiting independent consolidation.
External influence is almost entirely Rwanda-mediated, with the peace deal widening the gap between diplomatic posture and operational reality, constraining independent reach well below Rwanda's PF ceiling.
The Washington agreement represents diplomatic process without enforcement architecture — the real-world power dynamic in eastern DRC continues to be shaped by M23-AFC battlefield advances and Rwandan forward deployment, not by the paper commitments made in Washington.