DRC-Rwanda Proxy War
Delta badges show 30-day net PF movement
Uganda friction and Rwanda pressure keep eastern Congo conflict active despite limited pullbacks
Escalation Trace
Uganda friction and Rwanda pressure keep eastern Congo conflict active despite limited pullbacks
Theater
Focus Region
Africa
Geo-Linked Events
3
Rwanda invaded Zaire (now DRC) to dismantle Hutu militant camps, triggering the First Congo War and establishing a pattern of Rwandan military intervention in eastern Congo that persists today.
A second Congo War erupted after Rwanda turned against its former ally Laurent-Désiré Kabila, drawing in nine African nations and leaving an estimated 5 million dead by its formal end in 2003.
The M23 rebel movement launched its first major insurgency, seizing Goma briefly before being defeated by UN intervention forces (MONUSCO) in 2013 and formally disbanded under a peace agreement.
M23 rearmed and resumed attacks in eastern DRC, with UN experts documenting direct Rwandan military support including troops, artillery, and air defense systems crossing into Congolese territory.
Fighting intensified sharply as M23 captured large swaths of North Kivu province, triggering a humanitarian crisis displacing over 700,000 civilians and straining the East African Community-led peace process.
M23, fighting alongside the Rwanda Defence Force under the rebranded AFC (Alliance Fleuve Congo) coalition, seized Goma in late January—the largest city in eastern DRC and a critical humanitarian hub—marking the most significant territorial conquest in the conflict in decades.
M23-AFC forces advanced further, capturing Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, expanding the rebellion's control across a second major provincial capital despite international ceasefire calls.
Rwanda (direct troop deployment and logistics); Western donors pressuring Kigali; AU and SADC deploying monitoring and intervention forces
M23-AFC serves as Rwanda's primary proxy; FDLR (Hutu militia) backs Kinshasa as a counter-proxy, perpetuating the cycle
Uganda Signals Conditional UPDF Withdrawal from Eastern DRC
Uganda's Chief of Defence Forces Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba publicly announced readiness to withdraw UPDF troops from positions spanning Lubero to Mahagi in eastern DRC, framing the move as a response to Ituri Province military governor Lt-Gen Nkashama's restrictions on UPDF operations.
FARDC Launches FDLR Disarmament Operations in Eastern Congo
Congo's army deployed its deputy chief of staff to Kisangani to initiate disarmament operations against the FDLR, a genocide-linked militia that Rwanda has demanded be neutralized as a precondition for peace.
Rwanda Threatens Withdrawal from Cabo Delgado Over Funding Gap
Senior Rwandan officials threatened to withdraw over 4,000 RDF troops from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province unless sustainable international funding is secured, coinciding with the EU's likely non-renewal of approximately $46 million in European Peace Facility contributions beyond May 2025.
Rwanda Weaponizes Mozambique Security Guarantee Against U.S. Sanctions
Following U.S. sanctions on the Rwandan Defense Forces and four senior officers for supporting M23 in eastern Congo, Rwanda publicly threatened to withdraw its troops from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, where they have been protecting Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies gas infrastructure from Islamic State since 2021.
U.S. Project Vault Critical Minerals Stockpile and Congo Resource Strategy Launch
The Trump administration unveiled Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic critical minerals reserve modeled on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, paired with a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan facility and $2 billion in private finance.