New president Aoun and PM Salam elected Jan-Feb 2025. First reform-credible government in years. Banking secrecy law passed April 2025. Bank restructuring law passed. LAF disarmament plan endorsed. Government officially committed to state monopoly on arms.
Gap is narrowing for the first time in decades, but driven by Hezbollah's military defeat not state institutional strengthening — an unstable basis. If Israeli pressure eases before Lebanese institutions consolidate, Hezbollah rebuilds and gap widens again. The reform window is real — Salam is credible — but structural conditions have not changed. Score: 72/100, Narrowing, Confidence: Medium.
Hezbollah militarily degraded but structurally intact. 90% of southern infrastructure cleared by LAF. North of Litani: weapons intact, Iran still smuggling arms, reconstruction underway despite IDF strikes. Hezbollah rejected disarmament decree as a 'grave sin.' The confessional system, Amal alliance, and Iranian patronage that enabled the parallel state remain unchanged. Israel conducts near-daily strikes — 669 in ceasefire year one — disrupting Hezbollah reconstitution but also eroding Lebanese state legitimacy. Score drops 91 to 72 reflecting genuine military degradation. But structural enabling conditions persist.