StateAmericasVENStable

Venezuela

The Rodríguez military reshuffle, replacing Padrino with González and concentrating security architecture under a personal loyalist, is the dominant consolidating signal since the last score.

PF Score

29

1

Authority

47

Reach

18

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

29Overall1

The Rodríguez military reshuffle, replacing Padrino with González and concentrating security architecture under a personal loyalist, is the dominant consolidating signal since the last score.

47Auth

Military reshuffle concentrates coercive control under Rodríguez loyalist.

18Reach

Cuba patron role severed; no projective instruments remain.

Dependency Chain
VenezuelaChina (CCP)RussiaIran
Depth: Autonomous
All conflicts

Delcy Rodriguez

Delcy Rodriguez served as Venezuela's Vice President from 2018 and is a long-standing Chavista loyalist with prior roles as Foreign Minister and National Constituent Assembly president.

Financial Times·NewsApr 10, 2025

Venezuela is undergoing a managed political transition in which symbolic Chavista power is being dismantled under US pressure, but the coercive institutional architecture built by Maduro remains substantially intact under Rodríguez.

MixedMajor Update
BBC News·NewsJul 17, 2025

The US sanction lift on Rodríguez formalizes a transactional bargain: the Trump administration exchanges diplomatic legitimacy for Venezuelan resource access while deferring democratic transition indefinitely.

MixedMajor Update
The Moscow Times·NewsJul 17, 2025

Russia is converting Cuba's energy crisis into a strategic opportunity, replacing Venezuela as Havana's primary energy patron and directly challenging U.S. sanctions architecture in the Western Hemisphere.

MixedMinor Update