Mexico
The CJNG succession crisis following El Mencho's killing remains the dominant authority signal; reprisals across twelve states and 25 National Guard deaths confirm cartel parallel governance has not contracted.
PF Score
32
▲1Authority
44
Reach
24
Under construction
The CJNG succession crisis following El Mencho's killing remains the dominant authority signal; reprisals across twelve states and 25 National Guard deaths confirm cartel parallel governance has not contracted.
CJNG succession violence erodes sovereign writ across multiple states.
U.S. tariff coercion blocks Cuba energy role; independent projection remains capped.
Washington's deliberate sequencing of separate bilateral tracks with Canada and Mexico is a structural wedge strategy aimed at fragmenting trilateral negotiating cohesion ahead of the July 2026 USMCA renewal trigger.
Cuba's energy crisis has entered a stage of managed external dependency, with Russia sustaining the regime via ad hoc patronage while the US sanctions architecture remains formally intact but selectively enforced.
Russia successfully used a sanctioned vessel to deliver energy relief to Cuba with explicit US acquiescence, demonstrating that Moscow can project influence in the Western Hemisphere below the US enforcement threshold.