HybridAmericasMEXDeclining

Jalisco New Generation Cartel

Cartel

CJNG retains coercive territorial grip and transnational drug infrastructure but is entering a post-kingpin degradation cycle with mounting multilateral legal pressure.

PF Score

29

3

Authority

33

Reach

25

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

29Overall3

CJNG retains coercive territorial grip and transnational drug infrastructure but is entering a post-kingpin degradation cycle with mounting multilateral legal pressure.

33Auth3

El Mencho's killing in February 2026 triggered coordinated reprisals across twelve states, demonstrating organizational resilience but accelerating succession fragmentation and rival predation, pulling authority slightly below the previous 36 toward Sinaloa's neighborhood.

25Reach3

Cross-border fentanyl networks and transit corridors sustain meaningful external projection, but the FTO designation coalition now includes Argentina alongside the U.S., compressing financial and logistics infrastructure and trimming reach from 28 to 25.

Depth: Autonomous
All conflicts
Foreign Affairs·Analytical / LongformMar 19, 2026

The U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship has crossed a structural threshold: Washington's operating assumption has shifted from Mexico as a struggling security partner to Mexico as a potentially unwilling one, a perception change that fundamentally alters the coercion-cooperation calculus and cannot be reversed by tactical successes alone.

MixedMinor Update