War / Americas
Colombia Insurgency
Colombia's May 31 election produced a Cepeda frontrunner result as FARC-EMC violence peaked and Total Peace's future hung on the.
Ecuador is at war with its own cartels.
In January 2024, President Daniel Noboa declared an "internal armed conflict" and designated more than 20 gangs as terrorist organizations, deploying the military nationwide after gunmen seized a live television broadcast in Guayaquil. The fight traces to 2021, when prison massacres killed over 300 inmates and exposed how thoroughly groups like Los Choneros, Lobos, and Los Tiguerones had captured the state's institutions. No foreign government backs either side. The gangs are sustained by Colombian and Mexican cartel supply chains, FARC-EMC dissidents to the north and Sinaloa and CJNG networks moving cocaine through Pacific ports.
A country once considered Latin America's safe corner has become one of its deadliest.
Trajectory
Noboa's Atlantic Council address in May 2026 marks the clearest public consolidation of Ecuador's security alignment with Washington, formalizing a dependency that the Shield of the Americas framework locked in structurally.
The bilateral relationship now carries an explicit asymmetry: Ecuador imports coercive capacity it cannot generate domestically while Washington exercises lethal maritime reach across regional sea lanes under legally exposed frameworks targeting individuals described as civilians.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Analysis
Ecuador's asymmetric dependency on Washington is now structurally locked in: the Shield of the Americas excluded Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Chile.
Illegal gold mining has matured into a financing layer that interdiction-focused campaigns cannot reach.
The U.S. 49-strike maritime campaign sets a legally exposed precedent by targeting individuals described as civilians not posing an imminent threat.
Historical Context
A wave of prison massacres leaves over 300 inmates dead as rival gangs — including Los Choneros, Lobos, and Los Tiguerones — battle for control of Ecuador's overcrowded penitentiaries, signaling the collapse of state authority inside prisons.
Gang violence spills beyond prisons into cities as fragmented cartels, many linked to Colombian FARC-EMC supply networks and Mexican trafficking routes, escalate street-level warfare across Guayaquil and coastal provinces.
Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio is assassinated in August, days after publicly naming gang leaders; the killing marks a turning point as organized crime openly targets Ecuador's democratic institutions.
In January, President Daniel Noboa declares an "internal armed conflict," legally designating over 20 gangs as terrorist organizations and deploying the military nationwide to confront them.
On the same day as the declaration, coordinated gang attacks erupt simultaneously: armed men seize a live television broadcast in Guayaquil, prison guards are taken hostage, and gang members break out of multiple facilities, exposing critical security gaps.
Ecuador rises 36 places in the ACLED Global Conflict Index, reaching 6th most conflict-affected country worldwide, surpassing active war zones and drawing international attention to the speed of the country's destabilization.
GANGS: Colombian cartel supply chains (FARC-EMC, Gulf Clan), Mexican cartel connections (CJNG, Sinaloa). US: counter-narcotics cooperation. No direct state sponsor.
Continue With
All conflictsWar / Americas
Colombia's May 31 election produced a Cepeda frontrunner result as FARC-EMC violence peaked and Total Peace's future hung on the.
War / Americas
U.S. coercive pressure crosses into extraterritorial action as cartel fragmentation and USMCA leverage converge ahead of July review.
Proxy Network
Colombian FARC-EMC supply channels sustain cross-border trafficking and provide weapons and logistics to Ecuadorian armed groups along the northern border.
Sinaloa Cartel networks coordinate Ecuadorian gang access to Pacific cocaine export flows and embed in port transit infrastructure.
CJNG franchise nodes operate within Ecuadorian port and overland transit networks to manage northbound drug shipments.
Gulf Clan cross-border logistics support gang financing and supply chains in Ecuador's northern border zones.
Illegal gold mining networks function as a deniable criminal economy financing armed groups independently of narcotics flows.