Conflict / Asia-Pacific
India-Pakistan Kashmir Dispute
One year after Operation Sindoor, both sides are racing to build non-contact warfare capacity with no crisis management architecture.
India and China have never agreed on where their border is.
The 1962 Sino-Indian War ended in a Chinese victory and left behind the Line of Actual Control, a 3,400-kilometer frontier running through the Himalayas that neither side has ever formally demarcated. For decades the dispute was managed through patrol protocols, until June 2020, when troops fought hand-to-hand with clubs and rocks in the Galwan Valley and killed soldiers on both sides for the first time since 1967. Since then both armies have kept tens of thousands of troops forward-deployed, while Beijing has steadily pulled India's smaller neighbors, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, into its orbit through infrastructure and debt.
The two most populous countries on earth share a contested border, nuclear weapons, and no agreed map.
Trajectory
The LAC remains quiet, but the competition's center of gravity has shifted to technology and neighborhood alignment.
India's Tata Electronics signed an MoU with ASML during Modi's Netherlands visit, securing EUV lithography access for the Dholera fab and integrating India into the semiconductor supply chain at its sole irreplaceable node, though upstream rare earth dependence on China stays intact.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Analysis
The Tata-ASML MoU is India's most consequential structural move in the technology competition: EUV access at Dholera integrates India into the semiconductor supply chain at its sole irreplaceable node.
No direct external sponsors; US monitors closely and arms India diplomatically
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All conflictsConflict / Asia-Pacific
One year after Operation Sindoor, both sides are racing to build non-contact warfare capacity with no crisis management architecture.
Conflict / Asia-Pacific
Pakistan locks Full Spectrum Deterrence into command architecture while deepening its China dependency across military, space, and diplomatic domains.
Historical Context
The Sino-Indian War ended in a Chinese military victory after roughly one month of fighting, leaving the border undefined and establishing the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) across Ladakh, Aksai Chin, and Arunachal Pradesh.
Indian and Chinese troops clashed at Nathu La and Cho La passes in Sikkim, resulting in hundreds of casualties on both sides and demonstrating the LAC's volatility even outside major war.
India and China signed the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the LAC, establishing protocols to manage face-offs without escalation — the first formal bilateral framework for border management.
A 73-day military standoff at Doklam, a tri-junction disputed by China and Bhutan, ended without resolution after India intervened to block Chinese road construction, signaling a sharper phase of border assertiveness.
Chinese and Indian troops clashed in the Galwan Valley in June, killing at least 20 Indian soldiers and an acknowledged 4 Chinese soldiers in the deadliest border violence since 1967, triggering full corps-level military deployments on both sides.
Both nations rushed tens of thousands of additional troops and heavy armor to the LAC, with India also imposing bans on hundreds of Chinese apps and restricting Chinese investment, linking the military standoff to broader strategic rivalry.
Skirmishes continued in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh, with a large brawl between patrols reported in December 2022, showing the standoff extended beyond Ladakh.
Proxy Network
Bangladesh (BNP government): pursuing the China-backed Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project as leverage against India's structural.
Nepal (Shah government): broke from India-aligned diplomatic norms after March 2025 elections.
Sri Lanka (Hambantota/Colombo Port City): China's BRI packages bundle debt, ports, digital systems.
Battle Deaths