Week 11

The U.S.-Israel war against Iran completed its third week with a paradox visible to everyone watching. Washington and Tel Aviv have destroyed Iran's air force, navy, air defenses, and supreme leader, yet Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, still holds hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium under rubble, and still conducts strikes on Gulf shipping and U.S. bases.

Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as supreme leader confirmed that killing his father did the opposite of what decapitation is supposed to do. The IRGC used the crisis to install a pliant successor, shut out reformists, and consolidate hardline control in days rather than the months a contested succession would have taken.

The economic damage is spreading fast. Brent crude sits above $100 a barrel. The IEA released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest coordinated drawdown in history. Gasoline prices in the United States have jumped 26% in a single month, and the White House cannot assemble the escort coalition it needs because partners refuse to participate while the war continues.

Beyond the Gulf, the conflict is rearranging the global board. China resumed large-scale military flights near Taiwan after a 10-day pause, timed to coincide with U.S. carrier groups and missile defense batteries leaving Asia for the Middle East. Canada hosted Nordic leaders in Oslo to build an Arctic security bloc explicitly framed around American unpredictability. Cuba's government, cut off from oil for three months, publicly acknowledged negotiations with Washington from a position of near-total collapse.