Canada

Canada's sovereignty gap is categorically different from most entries in this system — it's economic and structural rather than military and coercive in the traditional sense. Score of 38 reflects a meaningful but not acute gap: Canada retains full institutional and legal sovereignty, but the US can effectively dictate Canadian economic conditions through tariffs on ~75% of its export base. This is the 'patron capture' problem applied to a democratic ally rather than an authoritarian client. Gap Direction is Narrowing because Carney's diversification strategy is real and moving quickly — China deal done, India trip underway, Australia/Japan in progress. But the runway is long: India-Canada trade is $23B vs $712B with US. Even a successful 10-year diversification program might reduce US exposure from 75% to 60%, still leaving a significant gap. The Nijjar assassination complication is worth tracking — Canada is effectively deprioritizing rule-of-law accountability for a murdered citizen in exchange for trade access. That's a different kind of sovereignty compression.

Canada's de facto economic autonomy is significantly constrained by structural US dependency: approximately 75-76% of exports go to the US, making US tariff policy a direct coercive instrument over Canadian economic output. Trump administration has imposed tariffs up to 50% on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and forest products. CUSMA/USMCA review creates ongoing uncertainty. Canada's ability to independently set trade policy is formally unconstrained but practically limited by the cost of US retaliation. Under Carney (2025-), Canada has secured a trade détente with China (EV tariffs reduced, food duties eased), launched FTA negotiations with India, and is pursuing Australia and Japan partnerships — a systematic attempt to reduce the economic sovereignty gap through diversification.