Syrian Democratic Forces
Hybrid
No new events post the last scoring date; all three linked events were already incorporated in the previous cycle.
PF Score
25
Authority
35
Reach
18
Under construction
No new events post the last scoring date; all three linked events were already incorporated in the previous cycle. The Syria Post-Assad constitutional consolidation and the prior territorial offensive remain the dominant structural anchors, and no additional signal has emerged to shift the picture.
Residual Rojava governance sustains thin quasi-state control.
US patron dependency caps all independent external projection.
Sipan Hamo
SDF's assistant defense minister for eastern Syria
Sipan Hamo serves as the SDF's assistant defense minister for eastern Syria, making him a key figure in managing the SDF's military posture in the Jazira region.
The simultaneous collapse of SDF-administered IS detention infrastructure and U.S. military withdrawal from northeast Syria creates a compounding security vacuum that Damascus structurally cannot fill within any near-term timeframe.
Iran-aligned Iraqi factions have directly attacked both Syrian army and US-hosted SDF positions, puncturing Syria's neutrality posture and raising the cost of US presence in northeast Syria.
Syria's post-Assad transition is not a liberalization event but an institutional consolidation that translates HTS's insurgent governance model into state architecture, with Sharaa concentrating executive, judicial, and security authority under a religiously legitimated framework.