StateAsia-PacificNPL

Nepal

Nepal has gained internal coherence through the RSP majority but remains structurally marginal, a consolidating weak state with negligible external weight.

PF Score

34

Authority

54

Reach

22

PF ScoreLast 30 days

Under construction

34Overall

Nepal has gained internal coherence through the RSP majority but remains structurally marginal, a consolidating weak state with negligible external weight.

54Auth

The RSP's first parliamentary majority since 1999 consolidates formal executive control and ends coalition fragmentation, but unresolved federalism tensions, inclusion quota disputes, and Gen Z movement demands leave structural governance contested, placing Nepal above Gambia (34) but below Hungary (58).

22Reach

Nepal projects minimal external influence as a landlocked buffer state with no proxy network, no structural instruments, and deep economic dependence on India and China, placing it near Afghanistan (Reach 15) but slightly above given functional state continuity.

Depth: None
Allies & Partners1
IndiaDependent
+30
Lev
15
Dep
65
Adversaries & Rivals0

No adversarial relationships

Balendra Shah

Balendra Shah, known as 'Balen,' is a former rapper and civil engineer who won the Kathmandu mayoral race as an independent in 2022, building a following through social media and high-profile confrontations with entrenched interests.

Mar 5, 2026Institutional reformMixed

RSP Landslide Victory and Balen Shah Government Formation in Nepal

The Rastriya Swatantra Party won 182 of 275 lower house seats in Nepal's March 5 election, becoming the first party to secure a parliamentary majority since 1999 and ending nearly two decades of unstable coalition governments.